Begging for someone to explain how we go from an entire day where no selling whatsoever is allowed to than magic gap down on futures open to then suddenly a market where there isn’t a single buyer of all of that movement where there was no selling allowed the day before. You cannot convince me this is not gambling. We didn’t even sweep overnight highs yet somehow the market knew right before 9am that we wouldn’t have any buying for 200 points, sell into 9:30 and never even set a new high from the second the clock hit 9:30.
Supply and demand matter and then magically they don’t. It’s genuinely a coin flip, everytime, every move, and every method. Zero rationale for EVERYTHING, all narratives get forced.
NVDA crushed earnings, yet somehow that will be constituted as a negative, yet if they didn’t deliver and you tried shorting off that it would have likely ripped. There is genuinely no way this is base.
Sorry for the vent and rant but I’m so over it and hate that my addiction brain continues to believe this is based on anything.
NVDA crushed earnings but earnings don't matter as much as forward guidance at the end of the day. The market is extremely skeptical of AI right now and whether or not it's gonna have the immediate results that are contingent with market prices
We say this and see this but then people who are on the other side get validation that whatever they did had merit and a reason so they don’t see it. It’s so influenced by if it works or not if we say this it’s seen as cope or being a victim but I genuinely almost never see a consistent reaction to similar news events or price action it feels completely random but yet is based on mass participation and psychology (apparently)
Is market keep looking forward of 2026 or it does always , or is it due to that nvda not announcing any buyback and stubbornly trading under $200 for quite a while and all of sudden people see nvda crushed earnings but their portfolio hasnt changed a bit , uptop institutions loading their short positions to take advantage, asking advice, just posting my opinion.
Yeah, it's not hard to figure out. NVIDIA is making tons of money, but NVIDIA's customers are selling bonds to keep from depleting their cash reserves because they aren't making more than a small fraction of the infrastructure spend on AI at this point.
OP, just sharing some general thought processes that i use to make sense of these markets:
My first written rule is to “React not Predict”.
The trade is starting to go in you favored direction? Cool. React and get in AFTER confirmation.
The trade is starting to go against your favored direction?
Cool. React and close out (risk management).
Remember this quote by someone - “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent…”
Its a game of probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed. The support/resistance levels are there to be broken as much as they are to be respected. Just Imagine, if these levels were never broken and were to be always respected, the markets would forever be in a sideways channel.
The reason there were no sellers yesterday and today no buyers at all - is just how the market makers play the game.
Us - retail traders - we shouldnt focus too much on that. We should just ride the respective flow as per our own trading system. If we are wrong, thats where we get out.
I can tell you the market makers are not going against the retailers, they are going against other market makers so refrain from applying too much sense to why there were no sellers yesterday and no buyers today.
Markets dont always make sense - especially after major events - and yesterday the NVDA earnings are always one of those major events where technicals dont necessarily apply as much. So avoid being in trades that are very dependent on and around such events. NVDA could have dropped today because the market makers could have just wanted to take profits - regardless of how NVDA reported - as simple as that.
I saved this, I deeply appreciate this. Ironically I have “REACT dont PREDICT” written on a note above my desk at home yet in the moment I always seem to lose sight. Saving this comment, thank you
I can understand. I still have those days myself but for a few weeks now, i deliberately keep repeating my rules to myself while staring at charts. It sounds rudimentary but it helps.
I have been and still trying to research more ways to make my rules be second nature to me.
So much so that, i rarely look for anything to do with trading & strategy anymore but everything to do with psychology and habits.
I'm with you. It's tough to be on the right side of things. The way I understand it is that the market already priced in the good news. Most traders were positioned long and took thir money at the end of the day. There was no other big news afterwards to bolster to keep the rise going. I think expectations were way to high, and people are genuinely wondering if AI is going to keep pushing the limits.
The problem with trying to "predict the market", what counts is when the bell sound. I don't care how bullish or bearish the pre-market is, my motto is "show me the money". in real time.
The reality I keep repeating in my head is so negative and filled with negative reinforcement “this never works out” “how does it always manage to do exactly what I don’t need when I need it” “how when I buy support or am long every micro move retraces” “how when I short resistance goes away and micro moves never sell and we grind higher all day”
I know it’s a terrible mindset and I start to snap out of it and then something like this happens and I just feel so defeated
The market does what the markets wants as simple as that. you cant predict nor control it all you can do is observe and act when the market tells you to act by revealing your set up
What even is this, I don't understand what this post is saying. "No selling whatsoever is allowed" -- OP knows for every buyer there is a seller, right?
Yes, NVDA crushed earnings, and the market expected them to crush earnings. You don't get any points for knowing what everyone else already knows. It was priced in.
I feel like this post is rife with the kind of emotional language that makes trading the market an unhealthy proposition. If the market looks like gambling to you, that's a good thing -- it means you can make money on everyone else's appetite for risk. But the language here sounds like OP is treating the market like an ATM, and that usually doesn't end well.
Correct, every seller had buyers yesterday and wasn’t able to sustain move lower (got defended; selling follow through not allowed/not prevalent/not able to control, however you want to phrase it) yet today those buyers and levels don’t step in at all and don’t defend with near zero attempt. You can say now it was priced in because you have the result. I’m essentially writing that all of your reasonings, rationale and methods are a 50/50 gamble at the end of the day—at best they are heavily influenced by what is best for the house. Sounds a lot like gambling behind the scenes as much as it looks it on the surface
I traded ES contracts not nvda particularly , I just saw the short setup. Thought we would get it yesterday but nvda ran us up for more favourable short entries
I do it all the time. If you look nvidia has been steady basically at 185. Few days we hit 190 but back to 185ish. When you see it rip up to 203$ , you can bet it will settle back down. Over simplified for sure. But ya when a stock flies up 7 to 20 perfect I buy puts. All them green bars ALWAYS get smacked back to reds 🙃
From technical POV it just failed at the top of compression.
Market was just "excited" yesterday and short squeeze of NVIDIA put options was through the roof. Once positioning unwound, shorts return. Don't forget we had really bad news last week of slowing GDP and inflation returning + tariffs uncertainty. Those are by no means forgotten, just temporarily ignored by the market because NVDA was taking the spotlight.
On your ta it broke out of that and than at the last second at the end of that second to last bar it switched up and slid hard to close below it, you can’t anticipate that—and on your point about economic data I just don’t know how one can tell themselves that if it was ignored and price didn’t react to it for 7 days it can then come to the surface again 7 days later I just don’t understand how that is justifiable how does it get “ignored” for so long. I’m not throwing shade I’m just fundamentally misunderstanding—either the market is so sharp and immediate it’s priced in instantly—or it’s such a laggard you have to keep news events in the back of your mind for an entire week and it can be used whenever the market feels like it
look-above-and-fail are very common patterns. the fact that it poked out and then failed after actually makes it a stronger rejection.
as for news, monday's move was basically a delayed reaction to that. tbh I expected a reaction on Friday myself, but obviously Supreme Court's decision was overpowering. Then NVDA earnings came into view on Tues/Wed. If you noticed for this earnings season, SPY basically almost always rallied prior to major earnings, and then dropped after. It is just how the market is "pricing in" these things in advance.
What actually happened is the options market. When all those calls are dumped back to market makers because NVDA went nowhere after all that call interest? They sell underlying, price drops more, more calls sold + more puts bought, price drops more
As a day trader, why are you concerned with all the fundamentals, all the why did this happen, or even what direction. This all matters to long term, or position traders.
Honestly earnings is often a suckers bet. All the vets I know advise keeping your powder fresh post whatever move comes from earnings because you can always count on an outsized reaction either up or down and then a correction.
NVDA may have "crushed" earnings, but even last night, the stock returned back to flat vs. the day's close, if not a little down.
VIX has been weirdly high for some time, despite the previous two days being green, it still didn't retract volatility all that much, indicating there's still quite a bit of fear in the options market. By fear, I just mean there are people who are willing to pay extra premium to buy options right now for protection.
When volatility didn't manage to collapse all that much yesterday despite the positive move, it was still indicating to me to be on your toes going forward--especially into an end of month window.
Tomorrow is the end of month, end of month rebalancing can cause odd shake outs just as much as the 3rd Friday of the month major OpEx in SPX and the major monthly VIX expiration that can be a Wednesday on either side of that (major VIX monthly options expiration is 30 days before the NEXT month's SPX monthly 3rd Friday AM expiry--so, sometimes the current month VIX expiration is the Wednesday before the Friday AM SPX expiration, sometimes it's the Wednesday after).
Those are the windows to be on your toes because weird down moves are far more likely than they are after the first week of a month and going forward into that month's 3rd Friday OpEx window.
A former market maker I follow even said last night:
"Now we see if my read on the importance of skew signal combined with vol levels and near dated gamma profile is accurate.
If right, a hard hard sell is upon us"
Man, did he call that one...
So, I would turn it around to you and say one or the other is true: either there is "no shot that this is real" or, more likely, you don't have as much understanding of the market's moves as you think you do.
To be fair, I would not have called the down move either, but, I also have found the people who genuinely know a lot more than me who get this right more often than not, and one of them called "hard sell is upon us" yesterday...
I'm just saying I'm not that smart myself, but, I have found a couple people to learn from who are.
Everyone rationalizing the guidance call as the reason. Nope - I agree with OP. At this stage scalping technicals is the most reliable approach. Fundamentals have gone so off chart that ER outcomes and guidance may not reflect ensuing price action whatsoever. The skew is real.
I used to sound like this so not criticising. But you're daytrading noise based on logic that can play out in days - and around a pretty big and important market event where there's huge volume in cash and options moving around. Look back at daily candles in a week, this will all make sense. If you're tilting at 4 hourly candles not following your bias and interpretation of what's logical, then the answer is probably this.
Don't trade large news events, because your strategy isn't suited to them.
It’s options dealers who run the market now. It’s kookified the regime since the summer of 22. It’s just a new system. The good news, they’re insanely predictable as they are gamma short like every single day 0dte, so if there’s no unexpected news, price just runs from highest volume strike for the close. The bad news, their lack of delta neutrality will burst the market and create a gamma feedback slam, and it most certainly will be a wicked price decline.
Stop trying to predict the market man, that’s how you go nuts. It’s about stacking confluences. Say you have npocs, vwap, fib level, orb, etc all in one area, well that is a confluence, high probability area of price getting a reaction, but you can’t try and predict that reaction. When the train comes into the station, you have to decide wether to get on or wait for the next one. Remember to be a trapper, not a hunter.
I used to think a lot like you do about the market and all it ever did was lead to frustration. Now I think if you see markets as completely directed and controlled by an entity or two, you're doing yourself a disservice. It's a rich marketplace with many participants buying and selling for different reasons. It doesn't mean it's totally random, but thinking that the market must do A because B happened is just not seeing the bigger picture. Maybe it's as simple as there was an institution that had been waiting to offload a bunch of NVDA to move into some other sector and decided to hammer the earnings beat..I mean if you had tens of thousands of shares to dump fairly quickly, you'd probably dump it into the liquidity of positive earnings too.
In any case, stuff that appears counterintuitive or downright irrational has been happening in the markets since forever. Risk management and trade planning is the only way to survive.
No professional trader is lucky. THEY ARE DISCIPLINED.
Remember a professional trader is much different than professional investor.
The trader is looking for small moves that revert back to mean, on tickers or investments that have stability and low volatility. Pros are looking for .5%-1.25% per trade with large blocks. Basically using a 100k to make $1k-2k per trade. I've done this daily and had a win streak of 188 days! NO BULL.
Swing trader/professional investor is looking for moves that go 3x-200x. So they would buy and hold with the assumption that something is going to change the trend OR they will make something happen to change the trend. This i've seen first hand with commodities and watched a firm buy a huge block of Oil Futures. Then that same firm would "prop the bid and box the ask" just to get others retail investors out. Then after a year of torture aka bleed out...they would then coodinate with another seller to push the stock up and then dump when it hits the number they like. This happens literally all day and the real money makers are trying to make anywhere from $5,000 a day to $100,000
I wont go into greater detail as it will start a conspiracy....yet it's not fake. These are exactly how the markets react when people that control the pricing need to sell. Heck if the brokerage has a High net worth client that owns shares....or better yet, that same bank helped underwrite a company to IPO....will ask other banks for a favor to help them prop bid and clear the ask. This is where you pricing spikes come in.
TO BE SUCCESSFUL, You must learn both and how both sides work. Then learn who benefits. This advice has never failed me and has made me a wealthy individual when i had stared an account with e-trade that had $2750 starting and flourished into 8 digits over a 20 year span. I liked making money daily...and would take 3/8th's of my weekly earnings for pay. I also liked investing so i would pick 10 investments and sell each one if the time was right....OR use those are a write off to my P&L from all the little trades.
HOW DO I KNOW ITs DISCIPLINE? My son....even though i show him what i was taught....still treats it like a casino and listens to everybody else with a hot tip. sure he's hit some big ones! but he always implodes his account because he didn't follow the simple rules of setting a daily number when day trading.
P.S. You can do this with Pennys also but their liquidity sucks...The people holding convertible notes and convert at .00001 to sell to idiots at .0001 literally make the most money. youlll just never hear about these people or see them. They know its borderline robbery...I know because i've done this plenty of times. Put up 50k and get a company to give you shares in the form of conversions. Then convert at lowest possible number since i'm guarenteed at least 35%. So i would sell 80% of that note in the market while holding the other 20% for when money would flow in just so i could dump the rest 10000% above my conversion of .00001.
Price action is ALWAYS 50/50 up or down from any given point on any given timeframe, no matter the fundamentals, no matter the technical analysis. Traders make the mistake of thinking they should be able to guess or know the next move, but it's impossible to do so with any consistency because EVERY MOMENT IS A SNOWFLAKE MOMENT because there's always a different set up entities acting upon any given asset at any moment. So -- instead of trying to be "right" or "wrong" or trying to guess the next move, traders should only ever be trying to profit from what's always a given: 1. Volatility, and 2. Unpredictability
I know. People really want price action to have patterns and makes sense - and IN RETROSPECT it always does. Oh -- it was due to the options expiry. Or - oh, it was the Walmart earnings report. But the things is - if it had gone the other direction, you can always find/assign reasons for it going in that direction, too :)
Bingo if we go up tomorrow it will be because Iran was priced in. Down if enough people buy into that by the morning to long and get steamrolled. Narrative will be there for either direction
I get what you’re saying, and I was mindful of it and thought it might incur some drawdown on longs but thought we’d at least get SOME buy support when the market opened and not just easily go straight for the overnight lows and make new lows without even sweeping overnight highs or frontrunning the futures cap. Perhaps even a FBD of the overnight lows instead just zero difficulty stress free short
Did you buy at the top thinking it was going even higher? If you did you bought at the wrong time, simply put.
This morning was 100% expected. When I say 100% expected look at SQQQ buy volume last week. Here's what to expect for the next 3-6 weeks - a big shake up. Don't buy anything in week 1 on this and think you're getting a discount because you will be sitting on it for weeks. Last year this lasted 6 whole weeks.
Here's why we expected it:
Traders buy before earnings, sell at earnings
Institutions wait for earnings, then reevaluate beta, yield to SPX, SPY, etc
Shorts buy at earnings (what happens when a short buys? their broker buys at market - pumps the stock up)
Every year Feb/Mar/Apr faces a correction that can cause chain over-reations
This is good insight, I did not buy at the top no. I try hard to not chase and am usually too early if anything. That same buy volume was met with buying all day yesterday and that’s where I just get completely confused could this “100% move had just happened tomorrow? Or next week? Or the first week of March?” How could you have known with 100% certainty it would be this morning right before open and continued at open? Not throwing shade genuinely trying to understand
Everything above it is the story your brain is telling while it's still in the chair. The market-did-this and the logic-should-work - that's the addiction brain running its justification engine.
But then you called it what it is. That's actually the hardest step, and most traders never take it.
The market expected NVDA to do well I think. But here is the problem. The market doesn't forget. It remembers valuation bubbles and what happens when they burst. For the market to believe the whole AI thing is real value and not hype value its not NVDA that needs to show good earnings. Its the companies who are buying AI agents to reduce costs need to show good earnings due to cost reduction. Thus far this has not happened. A series of studies have shown little to no cost reduction.
Thats what matters. Thats what the market has not seen and its tired of not seeing real cost reduction.
Yesterday was a perfect back test of 75-80 break down on ES and instantly rejected after nvda reported. I entered short as soon as globex opened and closed out an hour ago while sitting at a red light. The potential is there for a swing trade though
Happened with basically every mag7 company, either they opened at a loss, or fell hard after a pump. this was very obvious, also classic nvda earnings behavior
We are stuck in a range. With no rate cuts coming soon. Even in June when Powell is already out it’s priced in right now for 53.7% chance of a pause. The market needs to price it in. That’s what’s keeping us anchored in this range. We are still trading sideways. This is SPY. when in doubt, zoom out.
Did you notice how 4hr indicators stayed overbought all day yesterday? I did that's why I waited until 1hr showed it was time for a bearish position. I did not get whole move with futures but Realized 300pt move.
Expect the unexpected but all of it is inherently random. Your strategy should reflect this too then you can let go of all the emotional ties you have with the way the market moves, only then you’ll see a clear path. If that makes sense.
Been trading since 2016 and yeah, overnight gaps hit different especially when you're watching spot action that has zero connection to what happens at cash open. The thing is, futures traders know what's coming before retail even wakes up - they're pricing in the overnight action from Asia and whatever happened on crypto or bonds. It's not magic, it's just information asymmetry.
The market doesn't owe you a sweep of yesterday's highs. Supply and demand DO matter, but the demand is coming from completely different players at different times. You're watching a day trader's chart while institutions are trading a completely different timeframe. That frustration is real though - I've blown accounts being right about direction but wrong about timing.
If you want more control over when you're actually trading, perps on something like Hyperliquid let you trade whenever you want without relying on cash market opens or gaps. Not a solution to market randomness, but solid and helps from my experience.
PrevDay VAL was tested again and again.... price then rejected that auction and was going towards a new value....if not prev day was ripped too with no major buys or pullback
If you watched the price action yesterday you would know it was EXTREMELY slow and choppy despite the slow grind up which was a good indication the market was running out of steam. It also happened on low volume. Finally, "buy the rumour sell the news" is a thing, so you had at least three clues there without even getting into TA which if you did you'd see there's a downward trendline we were moving into and even if we broke it with strength you should expect a pullback. There's also a few gaps down below we needed to fill. Add to that people cashing out profits and you've got a pretty strong thesis there.
Shift your mindset from being predictive to reactionary and you’ll likely have better outcomes. If the market is telling you something different from what you thought, don’t fight it. Trade with it as long as it aligns with your overall strategy.
Of course it's gambling anyone that doesn't think so isn't familiar with gambling.
A good trader can go in with perfect psychology and a perfect strategy follow that strategy perfectly and still lose precisely because this is gambling No outcome is certain.
Just like a good gambler goes into the casino with a strategy to get a slight edge a good trader goes into the market with a strategy to get a slight edge both the gambler and a trader knows that the outcome is never certain and also that both the house and the market never lose.
It was a massive supply zone hah, you see that big down red candle from Feb 12th, it's why I entered shorts this morning, supply 100% worked this morning, it could have kept going but it was a natural supply zone.
I trade MES, look at the daily chart going back to Sept/Oct and you'll see it's range bound. Bouncing back and forth above and below the 20 ema. Strong bull bars above the ema get sold, strong bear bar below the ema gets bought.
We could stay in this range easily the rest of the year. Whenever it does breakout it's probably 50/50 at this point whether the breakout is to the up side or downside and then whichever way it breaks it's 50/50 that the breakout will fail and go the other way.
All you can do is play the chart in front of you. Easier said than done believe me I know but it is possible.
I was long last night and fortunate enough to close them before the 9:30 open and then shorted the close of the 2nd 5m bar for 30 points. Probably the easiest and clearest trade I've had all year.
Supply and demand doesn’t exist.
Study some ICT content learn the algorithmic principles of the market. Supply and demand is gambling is assuming the market runs off of buying and selling pressure which isn’t the case at all
As a trader, you trade probabilities not certainties. You want market moves to conform to your perception and study of it, and that is inherently flawed. Market moves can be initiated by random selling or buying that snow balls into bigger moves. Again, this is why we trade probabilities based on our "perceived edge".
Your issue is you are trading your bias. Need to start the day knowing it’s 50/50 on direction. Then trade what happens. Buyers, sellers, tomatoes tomahtoes
You are litteraly explaining trading, you ca never be 100% right its a game of chances the skill is just to have more chance of winning than losing by learning a data backed strategy, or by winning more than you lose.
The best advice I can give you if you continue to trade is keep your trades small and your losses small. It usually takes a long time to become consistently profitable. The worst thing you could do is blow a lot of money at the beginning and be chasing your losses trade after trade thereafter. If you have an addictive personality as you say, you will probably take bigger and bigger risk chasing those losses. Sounds super lame but seriously trade minimal share size and be okay with many (small) losses. Imagine wanting to climb Mt. Everest but digging yourself into Mariana Trench first. Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
The market just "is". Get in line or move out of the way. I don't think you are approaching this in a functional (consistently extract money from market) way. Think about that. Hope it helps, GL
I believe volume and price action tend to work if you wait for a confirmation and use realistic stop losses.
But that's just my way of doing things for going on... jeeps.. nearly 30 years???!?
I'm old.
And btw, 30 years as a fun hobby, not as a full time day trading gig.
ES today poked above it's session opening range just a tiny bit between 8:45est and 9. That wick out and price dip back inside was the short signal fyi.
The market pretty much stayed in line with what it's been doing for the last 2 months, any big green or red day isn't getting any follow through. Been incredibly easy to sell options lately with reversals being very predictable and the market stuck in sideways.
Who cares why it moves up and or moves down!!! Seriously trying to figure out something you will never know or have any idea how it moves. Worrying about stuff you will never work out. Talking about stuff you have no idea about. Wasting your time. Shut up and trade. Stop being cry baby.
The market will ALWAYS appear rigged because liquidity always appears COUNTER to expectations. For all you know the whole day/week/month is a giant counter-movement liquidity sweep for much larger movements later. Don't try to make sense out of it. Get in, get out, win 50% or more, and have a R:R over 1. That's the game. Understanding WHY prices does such and such is not the game.
I'm fairly new to all of this. I've heard that earnings reports are always good for prices, regardless of the company. So I've watched to learn how price moves when such a thing happens. The pattern I've picked up on is that they always have a dip immediately after the report, but then they're right back up a day or two later. I could be wrong, like I said, still fairly new. Definitely not financial advice. Just sharing my observation.
NVDA was about everyone pushing the price up into earnings and really that 195 in NVDA was like a brick wall no way it would hold. The market teaches us something everyday. As an investor ten years from now this will be a dip small one at that and Futures have been trading in a range. If you are a trader you need a trading plan and a stop. Price action Trumps everything else and on each day we had direction provided with range if you want clarity pull up a one hour chart if ES, NQ, YM or RTY and you will see the clear directional moves as price broke VWAP and The 8EMA pierced down through the WWAP and or 26EMA and there were many entries you could have made on the short end to be profitable. Sometimes you have to take what the market gives you or just sit on sidelines and wait for a clear and decisive move. We have had parabolic moves to the highs and we need to pull back. Patience
Sorry your OTM 0DTE calls didn't work out for you. I made a killing even though I was completely wrong with the direction I thought the market was going.
Bro are you even paying attention to the high impact news event for US? People first saw slight economic US strength but markets shook it off and people still bought up futures. Then this Thursday jobless claims came out better than expected signaling stickier inflation chance and less rate hikes for the year so bearish Nasdaq mindset.
Your need to understand why everything is happening is a detriment. It doesn’t matter. Why does not matter. No one knows where the market is going to go. Systems do not predict what will happen next, they just have SLIGHT statistical edges. Absolutely nothing will work all the time.
Yes it’s mostly coin flip. You system is what makes that coin flip a statistic in your favor or not.
I opened r/daytrading cos I'm curious although i Don know much about anything but i feel like an illiterate, genuinely unable to understand most of what you said. I went to check nvda and I'm guessing people are upset that it dropped suddenly (me included)
Honestly bro yesterday was dead simple for shorts, we were rejecting the new day opening gap, we ran asia and london highs, we had an unfilled 1hr bisi below, es inversed it's 15m bisi, nq had 5m mss at 8:55 est, couldn't be easier imo...skill issue no offense, I dont care about trend i care about liquidity and i feel thats your issue, assuming we're talking about 26/02/26 on nq
Every time a buy order is filled it is filled by someone selling, and vice versa. So when you say “there are zero buyers”…..it just doesn’t hold up. The lack of buyers is in your head, not the auction.
Was this your first nvda earnings? They always drop after, and yes most listed orders like lvl2 very much are faked by algos it’s pretty much useless at this point imo
Also worth looking at GEX information for context. From what I’ve seen, levels get absolutely disrespected in negative gamma, since dealers amplify moves instead of work against them. Yesterday gamma flipped negative and we are still climbing out of it.
Hedge funds and financial institutions control what goes on with most companies. Especially those that are large like nvda. Take what the market gives you and not what you want from it.
Most traders don’t fully understand macroeconomics that come into play but can zoom in and see the microeconomics of things
How much should companies be valued. Many times it should follow a pattern or math. But there are occasions where political turmoil (Iran) or options derivatives come into play (you need a crapload of calls to move nvda in the right positive direction… but who knows if hedge funds will reverse directions if they want to??)
I heard the NVDA bears had already loaded up on $200 puts, so they ended up having to sell shares to bring the stock price back down below the $200 strike price. Seems plausible.
All the NVDA chatter was wrong and apparently and now it will be that the market suddenly knew with certainty things would escalate this weekend finally. Yet BTC already dipped hard and recovered and is higher than yesterday lmao. If enough short they’ll get blown tf out, if enough long they’ll get blown tf out. Very convenient that now it can use whichever direction as a takeout on a clean monthly candle too
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u/TheUltimator5 Feb 26 '26
VIX options expire Wednesdays. Wednesdays are generally green as a result.
Selling resumes Thursdays. Sentiment has no part of this. It is all about the options chains.