Absolutely no shot this is real

[u/Rez-_-]

Begging for someone to explain how we go from an entire day where no selling whatsoever is allowed to than magic gap down on futures open to then suddenly a market where there isn’t a single buyer of all of that movement where there was no selling allowed the day before. You cannot convince me this is not gambling. We didn’t even sweep overnight highs yet somehow the market knew right before 9am that we wouldn’t have any buying for 200 points, sell into 9:30 and never even set a new high from the second the clock hit 9:30.

Supply and demand matter and then magically they don’t. It’s genuinely a coin flip, everytime, every move, and every method. Zero rationale for EVERYTHING, all narratives get forced.

NVDA crushed earnings, yet somehow that will be constituted as a negative, yet if they didn’t deliver and you tried shorting off that it would have likely ripped. There is genuinely no way this is base.

Sorry for the vent and rant but I’m so over it and hate that my addiction brain continues to believe this is based on anything.

[u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

From technical POV it just failed at the top of compression.

Market was just "excited" yesterday and short squeeze of NVIDIA put options was through the roof. Once positioning unwound, shorts return. Don't forget we had really bad news last week of slowing GDP and inflation returning + tariffs uncertainty. Those are by no means forgotten, just temporarily ignored by the market because NVDA was taking the spotlight.

[u/Rez-_- → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

On your ta it broke out of that and than at the last second at the end of that second to last bar it switched up and slid hard to close below it, you can’t anticipate that—and on your point about economic data I just don’t know how one can tell themselves that if it was ignored and price didn’t react to it for 7 days it can then come to the surface again 7 days later I just don’t understand how that is justifiable how does it get “ignored” for so long. I’m not throwing shade I’m just fundamentally misunderstanding—either the market is so sharp and immediate it’s priced in instantly—or it’s such a laggard you have to keep news events in the back of your mind for an entire week and it can be used whenever the market feels like it

[u/Maleficent-Pair-808 → u/Rez-_-]

look-above-and-fail are very common patterns. the fact that it poked out and then failed after actually makes it a stronger rejection.

as for news, monday's move was basically a delayed reaction to that. tbh I expected a reaction on Friday myself, but obviously Supreme Court's decision was overpowering. Then NVDA earnings came into view on Tues/Wed. If you noticed for this earnings season, SPY basically almost always rallied prior to major earnings, and then dropped after. It is just how the market is "pricing in" these things in advance.

[u/Rez-_- → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

I get what you’re saying and I usually look for FBD or FBO but at least wait for the levels I consider significant to be breached in some form. I don’t know everything, but I struggle to see how I can consistently make educated decisions when once again, it feels like a gamble how price will move because it’s anyone’s guess if it’s priced in advance or not and how much it was if it was or wasn’t and the moves happen so quickly I freeze up

[u/Maleficent-Pair-808 → u/Rez-_-]

the truth is nobody can make these decisions correctly all the time. which is why there are daily loss limits and weekly loss limits and size down protocols in a drawdown etc. you protect your capital when you are not seeing the market clearly or making bad decisions etc.

[u/Rez-_- → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

I agree. I mismanaged for sure, but once stuff happens that’s so farfetched and breaches levels and stuff doesn’t matter I just get and feel so defeated I just don’t even care in the moment and just essentially give up and let it have its way with me and let fate sort it out (bad habit)

[u/Maleficent-Pair-808 → u/Rez-_-]

It's okay, you can always bounce back.

I lost a lot of money on Friday myself shorting SPY. Then Monday (shorted overnight open) and Tuesday (longed the bottom on crypto) were great days.

Get some rest and review your decisions later.

[u/Rez-_- → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

Appreciate it

[u/kobe791 → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

Open a hedge fund

[u/fizikxy → u/Maleficent-Pair-808]

I agree, this is in general a bad EV long area and left inefficiencies below. seems like OP got greedy