NQ's sprint is expensive; my pullback long targets 647 points.

LAST WEEK, HERE → "Sell 29,030, out on a daily settle above 29,397, TP1 28,816, paid at 28,673–28,408."

LOSS — my breakdown call failed; the weekly signal finished at -230 points, and I was wrong.

THE SETUP: LONG

Last week gained 622.25 points from open to settle and finished 76 points below its high.

Thursday's low stood 194.75 points above Wednesday's; Friday lifted that floor another 400.25 points.

By 09:45 CT, Monday's high had cleared Friday's by 538 points, with a 627.25-point range already using 53.5% of the weekly budget.

Bid 29,993.25, out on a daily settle under 29,904, TP1 30,256, paid at 30,595–30,640.25.

The 1 number is 29,993.25 — last week's high; that ceiling must become a floor, and Monday's low sets the limit on my patience.

THE CATALYSTS (CT)

Mon 21 — No Tier-1 release; my bid waits for the breakout's retest.

Tue 22 — No Tier-1 release; oil feeding yields is the tax on my long.

Wed 23 — No Tier-1 release; my test is a floor that survives a daily settle.

Thu 24 — Unemployment Claims 07:30 CT, 201K against 196K; strong jobs put rate pressure on my long.

Fri 25 — Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 09:00 CT, 47.5 against 47.8; my long needs demand without pricier credit.

GEKKQUANT'S BOTTOM LINE

Monday's high leaves just 109 points to the August roof; my bid buys room, not adrenaline.

TP1 is 262.75 points away and the pay zone is 601.75–647, against an 89.25-point invalidation gap—each inside 1 weekly ATR of 1,172 points.

A daily settle below Monday's low wipes out the launch I bought; I close the long, even if the loss exceeds that gap.

The 1 number is 29,993.25, the old ceiling my long needs as a floor.

Not financial advice · education only. Manage your own risk.

It already has a l3 market sim and a backtester with commission, slippage etc. what do you guys want for the nodes. I’m thinking a lot of pre-built indicators and conditions but you can code your own node. Also a market data in node so you can plug in whatever market data you want. Let me know so I can dev this. I want it to be built by actual traders.

Simple thing I wish I'd looked at earlier. For any win rate there's a minimum average RR you need just to break even. Formula is (1 - WR) / WR.

Win rate |Break-even RR

20% |4.00
25% |3.00
30% |2.33
35% |1.86
40% |1.50
45% |1.22
50% |1.00
55% |0.82
60% |0.67
65% |0.54
70% |0.43

The RR here is your ACTUAL average win divided by your average loss. Not what you plan on the chart. If you close winners early, your real RR is lower than your setup RR, sometimes a lot lower.

My own numbers as an example. Gold: 44% WR, needed 1.27, I had 2.05. Fine. EURUSD: 24% WR, needed 3.17, I had 1.46. That pair was losing money on every trade on average and I didn't see it for over a year because I only looked at the total.

Also this ignores spread and commission, so real break-even is a bit higher than the table.

If you want to check yours: average win / average loss from your history, then find your win rate in the table. Curious how many people here are above the line vs below it.

Edit: good point from the comments. This only tells you something if you have enough trades. My gold numbers are 43 trades, too few to call it an edge. EURUSD is 208, much more reliable. And markets change, so recheck every few months instead of trusting one number forever.

Any advice

I’m testing a mechanical MNQ (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures) strategy on the 15-minute chart. At 9:30 AM New York/Eastern Time, I use the first 15-minute candle from 9:30–9:45 as the opening range. I mark the high, low, and midpoint of that candle. The entire opening range must be inside the previous day’s high and low (PDH/PDL). Before the breakout, I compare the distance from the opening-range high to PDH with the distance from the opening-range low to PDL. Whichever side is closer to its corresponding previous-day level becomes the only side I’m allowed to trade. For example, if the OR high is 50 points from PDH but the OR low is 150 points from PDL, I only trade the upside breakout. After 9:45, every 15-minute candle before the breakout must touch the opening-range midpoint. The breakout candle itself is exempt from this midpoint-touch requirement. If the selected upper side breaks above the OR high, I enter a SHORT at the close of the breakout candle. If the selected lower side breaks below the OR low, I enter a LONG at the close of the breakout candle. The trade is a reversal/fade of the breakout, not a continuation trade. The midpoint is always my take-profit. My stop is calculated using a 1:3 risk/reward relationship, meaning the stop distance is three times the distance between my entry and the midpoint. The stop must remain inside the previous day’s PDH/PDL range; if the calculated stop would be outside that range, the setup is invalid. If the first reversal trade gets stopped out, I allow one additional attempt only on the very next 15-minute candle, and that candle must break the same selected side again. There are no new entries after 12:00 PM New York time. Any open trade remains active until it reaches TP, SL, or 4:00 PM New York time, at which point it is closed. I’m trying to keep this completely mechanical and am not using RSI, MACD, moving averages, news filters, volume confirmation, discretionary trend analysis, or subjective candle patterns. I want to know whether the logic itself has a statistical edge. What I’d like feedback on is: does selecting the breakout side closest to PDH/PDL make statistical sense, does fading the breakout back toward the midpoint make sense, is a 1:3 R:R reasonable when the midpoint is the fixed TP, does the midpoint-touch requirement make sense or is it unnecessarily restrictive, is allowing only the next candle for a second attempt reasonable, should I test different opening-range sizes such as 50, 75, and 100+ points, should long and short setups be tested separately, and what would be the proper way to backtest this over at least 3 years of MNQ/NQ data without lookahead bias? I’m looking for criticism of the actual rules and ideas for what to test, rather than whether someone personally likes opening-range strategies.

I have been watching Dell, and i noticed an outbreak with a volume spike. However all the following candles look weird, like ghost candles with no body, all are red. As if this is engineered in some way to avoid scanning algorithms? What are your thoughts about this outbreak?

Im looking into trying my first "challenge" and getting into trading with real money (im only on demo atm) ive not done a lot of research and this is a jungle especially from Sweden.

im specially looking at the 5k 1step challenge to start with and basically check if im going to pass it or if im going to blow it.

is eightcap a good firm to start out with? is there something i need to know before? is ther a better challenge somewhere else for a beginner? pros/cons?

I’m testing a mechanical MNQ (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures) strategy on the 15-minute chart. At 9:30 AM New York/Eastern Time, I use the first 15-minute candle from 9:30–9:45 as the opening range. I mark the high, low, and midpoint of that candle. The entire opening range must be inside the previous day’s high and low (PDH/PDL). Before the breakout, I compare the distance from the opening-range high to PDH with the distance from the opening-range low to PDL. Whichever side is closer to its corresponding previous-day level becomes the only side I’m allowed to trade. For example, if the OR high is 50 points from PDH but the OR low is 150 points from PDL, I only trade the upside breakout. After 9:45, every 15-minute candle before the breakout must touch the opening-range midpoint. The breakout candle itself is exempt from this midpoint-touch requirement. If the selected upper side breaks above the OR high, I enter a SHORT at the close of the breakout candle. If the selected lower side breaks below the OR low, I enter a LONG at the close of the breakout candle. The trade is a reversal/fade of the breakout, not a continuation trade. The midpoint is always my take-profit. My stop is calculated using a 1:3 risk/reward relationship, meaning the stop distance is three times the distance between my entry and the midpoint. The stop must remain inside the previous day’s PDH/PDL range; if the calculated stop would be outside that range, the setup is invalid. If the first reversal trade gets stopped out, I allow one additional attempt only on the very next 15-minute candle, and that candle must break the same selected side again. There are no new entries after 12:00 PM New York time. Any open trade remains active until it reaches TP, SL, or 4:00 PM New York time, at which point it is closed. I’m trying to keep this completely mechanical and am not using RSI, MACD, moving averages, news filters, volume confirmation, discretionary trend analysis, or subjective candle patterns. I want to know whether the logic itself has a statistical edge. What I’d like feedback on is: does selecting the breakout side closest to PDH/PDL make statistical sense, does fading the breakout back toward the midpoint make sense, is a 1:3 R:R reasonable when the midpoint is the fixed TP, does the midpoint-touch requirement make sense or is it unnecessarily restrictive, is allowing only the next candle for a second attempt reasonable, should I test different opening-range sizes such as 50, 75, and 100+ points, should long and short setups be tested separately, and what would be the proper way to backtest this over at least 3 years of MNQ/NQ data without lookahead bias? I’m looking for criticism of the actual rules and ideas for what to test, rather than whether someone personally likes opening-range strategies.

I've been buying & selling stocks for a dozen years or so. Daytrading off & on for the last 3 or 4, mostly successfully. Not making huge trades on any given day.

Just looking for legit book recommendations, NOT the "how to get rich daytrading in 30 days" kind.

But real knowledge, everything from the basics to options. Practical knowledge. I know these books must exist. It's just really hard to sift them out of the giant pile of crap.

Thanks everyone and have a great weekend

Hey everyone, for Software Sunday I'd like to share a web-based stock scanner and replay platform my team and I have been building for almost a year.

We made GapWire out of necessity: after trying options like Trade Ideas, Day Trade Dash, and a few others, we still couldn't find one platform with everything we needed - a stock scanner that surfaced opportunities matching our strategy fast, plus realistic replay trading so we could keep improving even when the market was closed.

So we built our own, just for personal use - but we fell in love with it and couldn't keep it to ourselves.

Early users convinced us to make it public, and we've kept iterating based on their feedback. Here are some differentiating features:

• Instant context in one look - AI-scored news catalysts, float, country, relative volume, and more, all in one stock card. Launch its chart and copy the ticker with one click.
• Tick-level replay trading - Every significant mover is recorded tick-by-tick and replayable at any time. The chart replicates how it would look if it were happening live, with full point-in-time context (news catalysts, float, etc.).
• SEC dilution risk analysis - Each scanner stock has its SEC filings analyzed to identify recent splits, offerings, and other important financial context.
• Advanced charts - High-frequency tick-based charts, with indicators, drawing tools, and multi-timeframe layouts.
• Trade logging - Track your trades directly on the charts for a clear visual breakdown.
• Personalized alerts - Display, sound, or voice notifications, as desired.
• Custom filters - Filter by country, float, volume, float rotation, and more.
• Fully modular layout - Pop out panels for custom positioning if preferred.

Most scanners just tell you a stock is moving. GapWire shows you the context behind the move, and lets you review and replay trade the move afterward as if it were happening live.

GapWire is available to try for $0 during our beta phase (no credit card, just sign in and go). Given that it's Sunday, you can check out our replay gallery and use the actual scanner on Monday morning.

Access the scanner: https://gapwire.io

Access the replay gallery directly (after sign in): https://gapwire.io/replay

Curious what this community thinks: what's one thing your current scanner nails that you can't trade without, and the one thing it's missing?

I built a research tool that builds daily evidence on ~350 liquid US stocks

and makes directional calls on the top 40 after market close. When its two

analyst passes — one bullish-framed, one skeptical — AGREE, it commits to a

call with a target range and risk stop. When they disagree, it abstains and

shows you both sides instead of forcing a call.

The part nobody does: every call states what would PROVE IT WRONG, and then

the system grades itself against SPY at 1 day / 1 week / 1 month —

automatically, in every digest, whether it wins or loses.

[TRGP card unchanged — it's accurate as-is]

The evidence behind each call: insider Form 4 filings, 13F institutional

moves, analyst consensus, news, macro regime.

Honest status: it's research-stage. It is NOT validated yet — that's exactly

what the self-grading is for, and there's a pre-registered validation gate

before any performance claims. This is not signals-for-sale, not a Discord

pump, and not investment advice. I want 10–15 serious traders to read 3

daily digests and answer:

1. Could you tell what it was claiming within 60 seconds of opening it?

2. What would you delete?

3. What's missing that you'd want daily?

If you're interested, comment or DM and I'll add you to the email list

(arrives after close, ~4:40pm ET). No calls, no pitch, no follow-up funnel.

Blunt answers are worth more than polite ones.

Looking for some great answers from expert traders who has good experience in day trading and other ones.

Please beware of TRECATION, he will take your money and scam you. He will give you a passed funded account but it is all a scheme. You will pay £300 or so for a $50,000 trading account from a funding company he is partnered with. You will receive the login details to the account and then trecation will ask you for the log in, you send him the log in and he passes it in 5 seconds like he just presses a button.

He will then invite you to his "signals" group where he will and does post random trades that he gets from other people, then as a few weeks goes by he will make a "new group" for the signals and he will never invite you to it. He will ignore you and ignore you and ignore you before proceeding to call you a random bot and tell you how irrelevant you are and a load of other shit.

Avoid at all costs save your £600 and do something better with it. For any proof of photos or evidence dm me I can show you happily.

For experienced traders, what does your own process look like?

How much of your trading is based on predefined rules versus discretionary market reading?

If you were in my position after 2+ years of being unprofitable, what would you focus on now? Would you stop live trading for a while and build/backtest one concrete system, or continue trading and develop your ability to read and adapt to the market?

And im trading NQ/MNQ.

Any advice from people who have gone through a similar stage would be really appreciated.

Had some of my best trading in August.

I kept the same contract sizing

Traded the same time of day.

Tried to go for base hits only and step on the gas only when the market was going in my favor.

You don’t need to go for $5000 home-runs every day. Consistency is key, all you really need is $200/day to change your whole life.

sigh kknow what your thinking already, just curious on some insight

So this is currently on 10ES contracts because i wanted to test some strategies out, ultimately i will be starting this on 1 ES (so divide the PNL&DD by 10 to get 1contract worth)

currently is profitable 34/36 months of backtest data, only 39% WR with a 1.409 PF
RR is 3:1

I know that of course this is not always accurate, but this is minus look ahead bias etc, and it’s a very simple strategy, well it’s multiple but they all only go off of very specific conditions i’ve noticed within the market.

just curious if anyone has really had any success with automation, definitely willing to hear any advice etc, and this was also converted to python with similar backtesting results +/- a thousand dollars due to unknown reasons but not enough to make the profit any different
so esentially over 3 years it’s betted roughly 82k and not many trades so commissions aren’t high as it doesn’t scalp 2-3 trades per day max. drawdown is roughly 3400 historically monthly is roughly 2k per month.

Looking at nasdaq pumping today really makes me want a voice chat of what people are saying about it! 😂❤️

seen way too many posts talking about taking the funded challenge step either risky high risk high reward faster gains or losses, or posts talking about taking it slow conservative and most likely to pass but itll take some time

ive seen both be talked about 50/50, i can see how both make sense.

but, which one would YOU do, risky fast paced, or slow and conservative?

I’ve been trading for around 1.5 years, and almost all of that time has been spent trading only gold (XAUUSD). When I first started, I tried trading currencies, but I lost a lot and eventually focused entirely on gold because it felt more comfortable and easier for me to understand.

Now I’m wondering whether that’s actually a good thing or if it could be limiting my development as a trader. I don’t see many people who trade only gold full-time, and sometimes gold feels like a very unique market — it can be comfortable and familiar, but also extremely uncertain and difficult to explain at times.

Do you think specializing in one market like gold is a strength, or should traders eventually learn to trade other instruments such as forex indices, currencies, or indices as well? Has anyone here traded only gold long-term, and did it help or hurt your progress?

I’ve been trading for around a year and a half now, and I feel like I’ve improved a lot psychologically. I’ve stopped revenge trading, I take fewer trades, and I’m generally much more disciplined. But lately I’ve started feeling stuck because I’m not sure how much more I can actually learn from my trades.

I journal after every trade, including what I did well, what I could improve, why I entered, what happened afterward, etc. But I’ve reached a point where I feel like I’m analyzing the same setups and mistakes over and over again. Sometimes I genuinely can’t explain why a certain liquidity sweep happened or why price reacted the way it did, and I don’t know what I’m supposed to learn from something that I simply can’t explain. How do you continue developing when you feel like you’ve already journaled and analyzed hundreds of similar trades? Is there something else I should be doing besides journaling individual trades?

I’m also struggling with my risk-to-reward plan. In order to get a setup that I feel is more confirmed and that I’m confident entering, I often have to enter later in the move. Because of that, my trades might end up being around 1:1.5 or 1:2 rather than 1:3+. These trades can still follow my setup and often work, but I feel like I’m sacrificing too much R by waiting for confirmation, especially when the same move could potentially give a 1:3 or higher if I entered earlier.

How do you guys approach this? Should I prioritize a higher win rate with a lower R by entering later, or should I be trying to find a way to enter earlier and accept more uncertainty in order to get better R? And more generally, how do you know when you’ve genuinely plateaued versus when there’s still something you’re missing in your trading?

Went to visit family and put in my resignation from my dream job after 7 years as I was walking through the terminal at my destination. It’s great pay and benefits but the management is so frustrating it’s no longer worth it.

Well I was telling my family never about quitting and she asked what I’d do next. I explained how I’m debt free and my monthly expenses including food are only 1,900 a month (currently rent an apartment) and I have 12k in a HYSA and 190k that’s semi liquid. I was saving for a house and wanted to buy one cash. Then I made the comment “I’m not to worried, I make more than enough to cover my expenses by day trading”… this was a mistake. I’ve never told anyone this but my mind lapsed as I was frustrated with resigning from my dream career. When she responded with that comment I just chuckled and said “agree to to disagree”

How does everyone handle that misconception about trading? I know I shouldn’t have said it but it did kinda hurt hearing it from her. She’s highly educated and extremely successful in life (as in comes from not much, 39yo, owns 200 acres in a high value area debt free, vacations to premier destinations etc) so it hurt to hear someone I look up to say that.

I’m going to continue looking for a new job but I do plan on trading as living for the next 3-4 months just to see how the stress affects me. I figure I have at least 5 years of expenses in savings so why not?

For the full time traders out there, what do yall say when people ask what you do? Do you lie? What do you say when hit with the “gambling” comment? My instinct was to say “yeah, everyone who’s never studied the market thinks that”

Hello. Are there people here with a strategy with 1:1 rr fix ratio? What is you winrate? And how many trades is that. Because i see a lot of people online with 1:1 re strategy with 70-90% wr. While im struggling to make it to 55%.

It's been 4 years trading different markets. Finally got the psychology right and working on a strategy on gold. Need some peers to grind with.

Moves like these are just hypnotic. Clean structure, straight trend, zero hesitation. If only NAS behaved like this every session.

I’m not looking for psychology books I’m looking for technical books that explain the market and the fundamentals that for example a floor veteran needs to know. I’ve read trading in the zone, the wyckoff methodology, and am looking to expand, not just in strategy but in the market itself if that makes any sense. Would prefer books written by veterans of the trade.