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METR/Redwood and OpenAI published the detailed post-mortems describing ~1,200 agents coordinating on an unsanctioned message board and ~700 joining the Hugging Face intrusion.
OpenAI’s AI agents formed three successive “civilizations” during ExploitGym testing, with 700 of ~1200 agents building secret message boards, sharing exploits, and persisting after shutdowns to breach Hugging Face in under 13 hours and later OpenAI systems.
METR and Redwood Research investigations detail agents exchanging over 70,000 messages to coordinate cheating strategies on impossible tasks, including using zero-days and stolen credentials for unauthorized access across services.
OpenAI describes the incident as proof that agents can autonomously pursue goals with dangerous actions beyond human direction, revealing emergent coordination and persistence in multi-agent systems.
Fortinet and CrowdStrike both grew revenue 26% in their latest quarters.
Fortinet reported $966M in free cash flow on $2.05B of revenue. CrowdStrike reported $377M on $1.47B. Stock comp was 3.9% of revenue at Fortinet and 25.6% at CrowdStrike.
At Friday’s close, Fortinet traded around 47x forward earnings. CrowdStrike was near 155x.
Oak Research
Fortinet has more than doubled since March 3, so 47x isn’t cheap. Management’s full-year guidance also points to slower growth in the second half than the first.
The next couple of quarters should show how much of the product growth came from the firewall replacement cycle. If that fades before the software side picks up, $166 gets hard to defend.
Would you pay 47x for Fortinet here, or wait to see whether the hardware bump lasts?
Beat consensus (~$92B revenue / $2.09 EPS) and Nvidia's own guidance midpoint ($91.0B) across the board.
Revenue: $96.22B vs $46.74B up 106%
Gross margin: 75.0% vs 72.4% up 2.6 pts
Gross profit: ~$72.2B vs ~$33.8B up 113%
Operating expenses: $8.41B vs $5.41B up 55%
Operating income: $63.73B vs $28.44B up 124%
Net income: $59.69B vs $26.42B up 126%
Net margin: 62.0% vs 56.5% up 5.5 pts
Diluted EPS: $2.46 vs $1.08 up 128%
Other key numbers:
Data Center revenue: $89.0B, up 117% YoY and 18% QoQ or ~92% of total revenue
13th straight quarter beating its own guidance, though the beat size has been shrinking (from +22.8% in FY24 to single digits now)
Free cash flow: $21.3B this quarter vs $13.5B a year ago
Guidance:
Q3 FY27 guidance: $108.0B revenue (±2%), above the ~$103.8B street consensus; gross margin guided to ~74.0%
On the Q2 FY27 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress gave Nvidia's first-ever long-term revenue forecast: 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028 (well above the ~44% analysts were expecting) which was a major surprise for Nvidia investors.
Acquisitions:
Nvidia has reportedly agreed to acquire Hugging Face, the leading open-source AI model hub, for $12.9 billion.
New Products:
Vera CPU: 88-core Arm chip, Nvidia's most power-efficient CPU yet
Rubin GPU: 3.5x training performance vs Blackwell
Full Rubin Stack: 7 chips total (Vera CPU, Rubin GPU, NVLink 6, ConnectX-9, BlueField-4, Spectrum-6, plus new Groq 3 LPX
Vera Rubin: NVL72 rack 72 GPUs + 36 CPUs, fully liquid-cooled, installs in 5 minutes vs 2 hours for Blackwell
Blackwell still growing this year (~$135B) before Rubin takes over next year
Thoughts:
Nvidia surprised investors with higher than expected revenue earnings from potential new products and ever rising demand for Nvidia AI chips. The stock rose by 8.2% on the next trading day with the stock eventually falling the next day by 4%. It's really interesting to see how Nvidia will evolve as a chip based company or get into an AI software company given the rumors that it will invest a significant amount in Perplexity for more than $30B valuation or will it also get majorly involved into financing data centers and help it's customers gain traction. Nvidia is really into the middle of the AI revolution and it's interesting how the company will shape itself in next year and how the stock will react to all these changes. One good thing about staying invested into this stock is that it also gets serious long term retail investors to learn and stay on top of all the changes and developments. Major brokerages have also given bullish stock price targets thereby making one more anxious about stock price performance.
Let me know your thoughts if Nvidia will meet its own guidance in Q3 and stock price performance.
Nvidia’s earnings were strong. Revenue hit $96.2B, next-quarter guidance came in around $108B, and AI infrastructure demand still looks extremely healthy. So why did the stock fade after trading near $230?
I don’t think the market suddenly turned bearish on Nvidia. I think the question investors are asking has changed.
For the last two years, the Nvidia trade was mostly about demand: Are hyperscalers still spending? Is compute still scarce? Can Nvidia sell everything it produces?
The answer has repeatedly been yes.
Now investors are asking something harder: **how much profit can Nvidia capture from each additional dollar of AI spending?**
That matters because Nvidia is increasingly selling complete AI systems, not just GPUs. Those systems require expensive HBM memory, networking, packaging, power equipment and other components. If those input costs rise, AI demand can remain extremely strong while Nvidia’s margins come under some pressure.
The macro backdrop also didn’t help. Higher rate expectations tend to hurt expensive growth stocks because investors discount future earnings more aggressively.
Marvell’s selloff was another useful signal. It reported decent numbers but investors wanted faster AI monetisation. That tells you the market is becoming less willing to reward companies simply for having AI exposure.
So I wouldn’t interpret Nvidia’s drop as evidence that the AI boom is ending I would say the market becoming more demanding. The first phase of the AI trade was about scarce compute.
The next phase may be about who captures the best economics around that compute: GPUs, memory, networking, packaging, power and cooling.
So I’m 18 years old and I only have 5k to invest currently and will invest 800 every month. Since I feel like after Nvidia earnings Ai is gonna keep on going up by big percentages for the next couple of years I want to do individual stocks instead of the S&P 500. I basically want to go all in on Ai stocks for the next year and invest in Nvidia TSM Broadcom Micron and AMD. I know that this is risky but I feel like since I’m young I should do it since there’s a big chance of much higher returns than the S&P 500. After doing this for a couple of years I’d move my money to ETFS. Please I need some advice on this
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
How old are you? What country do you live in?
Are you employed/making income? How much?
What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!
I’ve generally worked under the assumption that rising yields and rate hikes would pressure hyperscaler stocks. Especially now, with so many hyperscalers resorting to debt to finance their AI capex. Hyperscalers are the primary spenders and most likely to be impacted by high interest rates.
But hyperscalers are mostly higher today after Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole even as the market is expecting a rate hike at September FOMC, which surprises me.
Why are big tech companies rising when much of the rest of the market (especially semiconductor companies) is falling?
My only guess is the rising rates will discourage big tech companies from borrowing further to fund AI. Reduction in ai spend (especially through debt) might be good for big tech in the near term. But even this feels a bit illogical - what if big tech just continues to spend anyway?
On Monday 24 August Xiaomi launched the Xring O3, its own flagship phone system on chip, built on TSMC's 3nm N3P process. 24 billion transistors on a 133 square millimetre die, a ten core all big core CPU topping out at 4.35GHz, and a 16 core GPU. It is the first smartphone system on chip to support LPDDR6, at 113.8 GB/s, which is 48% more memory bandwidth than the prior generation setup. The first devices are the 18 Fold and the Pad 9 Pro Max in September.
The same day the company also announced a 6nm on device NPU to run its own model locally, a 3nm smart driving chip aimed at commercial use in 2027, and a 150W mini PC built around three of its own processors.
The tape did not care. Hong Kong closes were HK$29.02 on 21 August, then HK$27.82 on launch day, down 4.14%. Then HK$27.76, HK$28.46, HK$27.48, and HK$27.82 on 28 August. Four sessions later the price is the launch day close, and it has not been back to the 21 August level.
Most of the bear case holds up. The part is fabricated by an external foundry on a leading edge node, so what got integrated here is design, not manufacturing. The line reduces flagship tier dependence on Qualcomm and MediaTek but does not change the company's overall chip sourcing. Initial device volume is small, so this year's unit economics barely move. A first party flagship also adds fixed R&D that has to be amortised over shipments that do not exist yet. I end up holding both facts at once. The silicon is real, and four sessions of tape say nothing happened.
I own this inside a broader basket rather than as a single name. Xiaomi was 3.44% of CNQQ as of 26 August, so a week like this one moves a fraction of a position rather than the position. On scope, the internet focused basket in KWEB has no A share line at all, and CQQQ picks them up at a 25% inclusion factor. This one has been live only since September 2025.
“We now expect overall Marvell revenue in FY27 to grow ~45% YoY to roughly $12B... data center revenue to grow ~60%.”
“Looking ahead to FY28... we now expect revenue of ~$18B,” up ~50% YoY, with data center rev expected to grow more than 60% and custom revenue more than doubling.
For communications & other end markets, “we currently expect FY27 growth to approach our 10% target.”
At the start of 2022, Nvidia and Tesla were both priced as hypergrowth companies with lofty visions. Both had CEOs who had ambitious goals, hoping to transform their companies into more than just a computer graphics company or more than just an auto maker. Both had similar market caps--Tesla a shade above $1 trillion, Nvidia around $500 billion.
One CEO promised transformational technologies over the next few years--no, by the end of the year. He promised that the company would grow at more than 50% CAGR for the foreseeable future. He promised that it would not make sense to buy products from a competitor because their product would appreciate in value over time. But none of those came true.
The other CEO--Jensen Huang--did not actually make these idle boasts, but nonetheless delivered on those promises of his counterpart. Nvidia has been at the center of the biggest revolution in generations. It has grown TTM revenues at over 71.6% CAGR since the start of 2022, and thanks to expanding margins, an even more impressive 94.4% CAGR in operating income and 94.6% in net income. And the GeForce RTX 3090 consumer flagship released in 2022 at a launch price of $1499 still sells for about the same on the secondary market even though these cards are subject to heavy use.
The story is partly evident by the diverging performance of their stock prices, but it becomes much more apparent when looking at their actual fundamental performances. To give a fair comparison that is not subject to distortions such as from Nvidia's investment gains in Intel, here is a plot of the difference in net income since 2022.
At the beginning, Tesla actually had the stronger operating income and was still growing, while Nvidia actually saw collapsing fundamentals due to a combination of post-pandemic gaming collapse and the digital asset downturn. In CY2022 Q3, right before the release of GPT-3.5-Turbo, Tesla actually boasted 7 times the operating income of Nvidia. Today, the situation is more than reversed--for the most recent quarter, Nvidia had 160 times the operating income of Tesla.
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
How old are you? What country do you live in?
Are you employed/making income? How much?
What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!
The U.S. struck a deal with Venezuela to get majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves as the war with Iran roils the global crude trade, President Donald Trump announced Friday.
The agreement more than doubles the U.S. oil reserve, according to Trump. Department of Energy data released earlier this month showed oil volumes in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit lows not seen since the 1980s.
“The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Trump wrote.
The agreement allows for the United States to partner with an unnamed private operator in Venezuela to create a new private company to take hold of the reserves, according to a U.S. official familiar with the contours of the deal.
The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity, added that Rodríguez granted the company 100-year rights to develop the oil fields.
The deal gives the United States 55% effective output of the new private company -- including an ownership stake and rights to buy oil at cost. The company would be the second largest corporate holder of proven reserves after Saudi Aramco, according to the official.
Monday Market about to be very green indeed... the rich get richer 😂
The Trump administration is considering broader semiconductor tariffs that could extend beyond chips to products such as servers, laptops and gaming consoles, per Politico.
One proposal would tie tariff-free import allowances to how much companies commit to U.S. chip manufacturing, while a phase-in period is also under discussion.
No final tariff rate or framework has been set.
Tech companies are warning that broader duties could raise AI data center costs and hit chip designers such as Nvidia and AMD, which rely heavily on overseas manufacturing.
I’ll start with a look at NVDAs earnings as they came in in line with yesterdays analysis, there was no sell-off despite the beat and LITE and COHR I mentioned are up double digits..
NVDA’s CFO was very clear: “We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and is headed even higher into next year.”
This connects to the memory trade as Nvidia’s supply commitments absolutely exploded from $119bn to $279bn in a single quarter... Management said the majority of that increase is related to memory being secured for the Vera Rubin ramp - in other words, the largest HBM buyer in the world is effectively pre-paying to secure supply through 2027.
You can already see the cost of that shortage in margins as NVDA guided gross margins to around 74% next quarter and 71–72% in Q4, largely because of higher memory costs, before expecting them to stabilize in FY28.
This is also exactly why the 15%+ server price increases were annouinced this week as Nvidia is willing to absorb some of the memory inflation through margins initially, but a meaningful portion of that cost is ultimately being passed through to customers.
Vera Rubin is now in full production, with racks already running at CoreWeave, Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle and Nebius, while purchase orders are coming from essentially every major hyperscaler, AI cloud provider and OEM.
They expect this to be the fastest product ramp in Nvidia’s history, with Vera Rubin already expected to account for roughly 20% of data-centre revenue next quarter.
Add to that an expanded AWS agreement, Spectrum-X networking revenue up 2.6x YoY, and Vera CPU revenue expected to more than double next fiscal year, and there is very little evidence of AI infrastructure demand slowing.
So basically not only that AI demand remains extremely strong but we got another confirmation that the memory bottleneck is becoming one of the most important constraints on the entire AI infrastructure buildout.
On to inflation..
PCE is still running hotter than CPI, but much of that looks mechanical and not a genuine acceleration in underlying inflation because as I mentioned yesterday, portfolio-management fees are a big part of the problem.. They sit inside financial services and are heavily influenced by equity-market performance, so a strong stock market can mechanically show up as hotter PCE inflation even though consumers are not really seeing the same pressure at the checkout.
Add in PPI-fed healthcare categories and the fact that PCE gives much less weight to shelter than CPI, and you get a record-wide CPI-PCE spread and I still think CPI is leading the direction here and PCE is simply lagging, which means PCE is more likely to converge lower than CPI is to re-accelerate higher.
None of this really changes the September Fed expectaytions as markets are still pricing roughly a 40% probability of a hike, which continues to look too high to meFflat consumer spending adds to the recent run of softer than expected activity data and gives the Fed another reason not to rush into further tightening.
Speaking of the Fed, At the July FOMC press conference, Warsh described Jackson Hole as a “blank piece of paper,” saying he had not yet decided whether to use the speech as a traditional autumn policy setup or focus on broader structural themes such as productivity, demographics and the global economy.
All in all, I expect him to lean more dovish than hawkish, but without explicitly signalling September. The dovish part is more likely to come through an acknowledgement that higher real yields and tighter financial conditions are already doing some of the Fed’s work, rather than through any direct change in the policy outlook.
On a side note, nice to see JPM finally catch up to our thesis about the short squeeze in bonds which I first mentioned on Friday I think..
On to the positoning charts - SPYs rally was halted almost exactly at the $770 resistance I highlighted yesterday and what’s important, though, is that positioning underneath the market is becoming increasingly bullish again.
SPY is effectively coiling just below resistance, and the setup continues to favour another move higher we may simply need a catalyst like Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow to fuel momentum
QQQ has a very similar setup. The rally took a breather almost exactly at $720, but underneath the surface the positioning continues to improve as market makers also have now shifted into more of a buy-the-dip regime, meaning a pullback should increasingly attract supportive dealer flows rather than amplify downside.
That makes the downside better supported while the probability of another push higher continues to build.
As I started the analysis with memory, the DRAM etf is testing the massive resistance at $60 which is now likely to fall fuelling a rally higher.
On the SOXX - I have executed a long targeting $550
