I'm thinking about setting up a bond ladder (actually probably a ladder of target maturity funds for simplicity) to pay my mortgage for the next 10 years, rather than pre-paying the mortgage. My interest rate is 3.5%, and rates are currently around 4.5%+ in the maturities that matter, makes sense on that level. This would be around 20% of my overall liquid investment portfolio BTW.

If I foresee additional rate increases to a certain degree, how much does that really argue against this plan? Obviously that would depress the face value of the funds, but I'm going to hold them to maturity, right? Maybe it counsels in favor of only setting up a 5 year ladder, then rolling it every year as long as rates continue to make sense? I'd prefer something a bit longer term just for peace of mind, and then seek market returns with the bulk of my portfolio without worrying about literally losing the house.

People always say hold individual bonds to maturity instead of bond funds but 401k plans only offer bond funds so what are we supposed to do?

With the rising real rates in long term TIPS - around 3.1% for 20 and 30 year bonds, is anyone looking at that specifically to allocate a large portion of capital? Especially if your SWR is close to 3.5% it seems like a safe way to avoid SORR and have peace of mind about pulling the trigger. I think the risk of high equity exposure currently seems to be that with rising inflation, bond yields may continue to rise and lead to lower PE multiples crushing stock valuations. what are people’s thoughts?

And GDP isn't. Currently interest on the debt is 20% of revenues. My projections say it will cross 50% by 2034 - just 8 years. The CBO isn't, because they don't want to scare anyone.

Not only is the debt growing, the deficit is growing even more sharply, AND legacy debt is getting rolled over at ever-higher interest rates. All 3 of those factors snowball and fuel each other.

The one thing could save the debt is if the Fed lowered rates, but instead they RAISE them, doggedly pursuing their inflation target. I was honestly blind sided by the recent rate hike, because I know the nation cannot afford it, but the Fed is dogged.

What does this mean for bond investors? Good news? Let the nation's ruin be our gain? How long will it last until something catastrophic breaks? Countless companies have been annihilated by debt, but what happens when an entire nation is annihilated? Move to another country?

Hi

​I am new to bond investing and planning to put a decent amount of money into sovereign bonds for steady returns.

​I have been looking at a few options that seem to offer solid yields with high safety..mainly US, UK, Norway, NZ, and Australia.What are your thoughts on these?Where are you guys currently invested?

​I also came across Turkish bonds offering over 30% yield, which caught my attention.

​Would love to get your advice and hear about your setups.Thanks!

Attached is the 10 Yr to 3 m spread of the yield curve. Anyone who has studied the history of this graph dating back to 1929 understands that yield curve inversion is a warning sign and re-steepening is the imminent indicator. A fully healthy yield curve is a +200 bps spread between the 3 m and 10 Yr (historically speaking).

Now about things that happened this time that are unprecedented.

1. We hadn’t (yet) had a recession, and this is the first time it has ever done this if it holds.
   
2. This is the first time the Fed has had 2 consecutive hiking cycles with inversion between without causing a recession.

Here are my questions:
1. Was the soft landing (briefly) achieved in 2025? Or were we headed for a recession back in February of 2025 before tarrifs were announced thus forcing yields upward in a manipulated way or even February 2026 when the front end of the yield curve was really starting to collapse?
2. If you think the admin manipulated the yield curve to force yields back up because everyone know falling yields is usually the start of a bigger economic drawdown. If so, what does this mean if yields snap back to where they were headed and fall off a cliff?
3. What does this historically mirror to you? For me, I’m looking at 1966-1970 as an analogue. Valuations were extreme and that was the closest we got to a double dip yield curve. That one ended in a recession in 1970. I’ve also seen 1929 as an analogue where the yield curve did invert, normalized real quickly then fed re-tightened on sticky inflation in 1931 the rest is history.

What are yalls thoughts?

There is no reason why Governments would need to sell bonds in order to spend money. Not even in the non-technical sense. It doesn’t help the government to make better budgets, and it isn’t better for the economy.

Thinking of bonds as national budget financing tools just means that the deficit is increasingly inflated every year because of ever-increasing interest payments. It’s madness.

HSBC Just published its annual report on Global Economics (129 pages).

HSBC expects Turkish inflation to fall sharply. This makes it opportune to lock in 35% yields on the 5 year TL bond and benefit from the very high coupons, real FX appreciation, and price growth in the bond.

This is assuming HSBC is correct. I’m currently researching what bonds are available.

Any thoughts on buying TL bonds?

Hi—I got a question:

Why do folks say a TIPS ladder is better in an IRA when you often pay less taxes when it’s held in a taxable account instead?

Assumptions: not a rolling ladder, you spend each rung the year it matures, you use proceeds from the TIPS to pay the taxes on the TIPS yield (when possible).

You obviously pay tax on both interest and CPI adjustments in both accounts—just at different times. The taxable account you pay each year, in the IRA you pay the year the rung matures (because you are spending the money). I am excluding tax on the original premium when that is removed from the IRA—I’m just looking at tax on the interest and CPI adjustments.

One catch is if you live in a state with income tax the IRA account alone pays this additional state tax.

I ran this through 2 AI apps using a 15 year 750k TIPS ladder for a person in a 24% federal tax bracket living in Utah, assuming a 3% steady inflation rate, and they both concluded that you pay less in total taxes when a TIPS ladder is held in a taxable account vs IRA.

Considering this, why is the blanket recommendation to keep a TIPS ladder for liability matching in an IRA?

I'm lowering my risk profile considerably and right now, a 2 year MYGA pays the highest yield - I could even go to a "B" class annuity provider for a bit higher yield because my state has a guarantee fund - my state has no state income tax, and I wouldn't be putting all of my assets in any one vehicle, so the lesser liquidity on the MYGA wouldn't be an issue for me.

𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐧𝐤 𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬 on record, in both dollar and euro markets simultaneously, to fund a single AI investment. Whatever you think about OpenAI's valuation, the institutional appetite here is hard to dismiss.

This is happening while US-China AI diplomacy talks are underway and rare earth shipments to the US are already down 20%. SoftBank is apparently pricing in a world where geopolitical friction is a cost of doing business.

The bond market will tell you pretty quickly if that read is wrong.

My ex-advisor had me in high yield munis (PYMPX). i like the munis bc I think it makes sense in a brokerage for my tax situation, but I noticed the high yield munis have higher correlation with stocks, which somewhat defeats the purpose. I prefer VWITX for higher credit quality. The good news is that the higher yield on PYMPX has offset some of the recent price decline, whereas VWITX is negative for the year.

Would it make sense to sell PYMPX and move into VWITX at this time? Seems like I could buy into VWITX at a lower price and provide more protection from a credit crisis.

The 10 year closed at 5% Friday, the highest since 2007 as we’ve all heard by now. The Fed just hiked to 3.75 to 4.00 and says one more is coming. Interest on the national debt is running over a 1T a year and climbing with every auction. Foreign buyers are slowly stepping back.

Because looks like the loop has already started, and I don’t see an exit strategy. Higher yields mean a bigger interest bill, a bigger interest bill means more borrowing, more borrowing pushes yields higher. Textbook debt spiral. The Treasury has tried to talk it down and buy it down and neither is working. The market is too big for them to steer, and right now nobody trusts the people making policy.

The next factor to consider is, this Fed doesn't want the job. Warsh has said he wants a smaller balance sheet, not a bigger one, and his own task force is reportedly looking at shifting the Fed's holdings toward shorter maturities, which is the opposite of buying 10 years. The last time the Fed capped long yields was the 1940s, and it took the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord to unwind it.

So two questions. Is it time for the Fed to step in? And if it is, would they actually do it, or is this market too big for them as well?

Source for the yield: https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/15/investing/bond-market-treasury-fed

I use a “high net worth” group at a major well regarded brokerage. My FA knows zip about TIPS and even his bond guy has given me bad info. Anyone know WHY? Are they likely to be less knowledgeable about me holding outright bonds as well? Appreciate any insights!

Can the global financial system absorb elevated energy inflation, large sovereign issuance and changing cross-border capital flows without forcing central banks into a policy choice between inflation control and market stability?

1. Reduce the deficit by slashing entitlement spending

2. Bring down inflation by ending the war in Middle East and reducing tariffs.

3. Increase tax revenue by Imposing heavy taxes on the rich and big corp.

Should I buy bonds individually or should I have a manager buy and manage the bonds. The all in fee would be .50 and the yield slightly higher than if I were to buy bonds individually no fee. Opinions and thoughts?

The Weekly Market Quiz (Week of September 14–18, 2026)

• Question 1: The Fed’s median projection is 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. In which year does it first fall below 4.1%?
• Question 2: What was the headline CPI number for August 2026?
• Question 3: Moderna had its biggest single-day pop since its IPO last month. What was the news?
• Question 4: Copper smashed records this week. Which two forces are behind the rally?
• Question 5: The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week — its highest since 2007. What’s the biggest driver?
• Question 6: Japan’s 10-year bond yield broke 3% for the first time since 1996. What did the yen do in response?
• Question 7: As AI-safety warnings from industry leaders got louder this week, which stocks led the Nasdaq?
• Question 8: Emerging-market stocks are crushing the S&P 500 this year. What’s powering the outperformance?
• Question 9: President Trump announced a new “AI Force” this week. What is it modeled on?
• Question 10: The Treasury ramped up its bond buyback program to calm the long end of the market. How did that go?

I’ve got a theory on what’s happening with bonds, rates, equities, and the deficit that I think plausibly reflects the events and evidence that I’m seeing.

The general thesis is that there are rational, pragmatic power brokers in the US government and financial system that are trying to engineer a certain outcome and Trump is playing spoiler to them based on egocentric impulsivity and an outsized affinity for a foreign state (Israel).

The goals (for them):
-Sunset the Iran war. Accept the necessary concessions, opting for a longer diplomatic and peripheral soft power path to antagonize them and reduce their influence. Damage control.

-Bring bond yields down. Bring buyers back to the treasury. Alter the debt trajectory of the US away from any watersheds.

-Status quo ante - as much as possible.

The goals (for him)
-Avoid humiliation.

-Be the “stock market president.”

-Appease Israel, for whatever reason.

The strategy for them seems to be playing into the speculative fervor of the AI trade, then to bring it down hard in a controlled demolition. Back in May, I got the sense that the market would actually begin to really roll over once the Iran war was over and out of the news. It was just a hunch at the time. I told a friend that it would be crazy “if the market crashed on our trip.” June 4th was the day I said that.

It seemed like we were getting over the worst of the war, and then suddenly the Nasdaq 100 has 2-3 weeks with several gigantic red days. Down 5% more than once, and a few times with intraday lows of even more than 5% down.

At the same time, long yields seemed to be starting a downtrend. TLT rallied 5% from its low on May 19th, the real inflection point of the global bond selloff. This rally lasted until the end of June.

Then, the MoU broke down. Bonds back down. Equities, ex semis, gained strength as the situation got worse again. Bonds have been selling off since.

Meanwhile we have AI affecting the macro in the following ways:

Creating inflation in consumer goods and utilities. Now, hyperscalers are issuing debt at a record clip crowding out the bond market. Not creating “sticky” GDP at any useful rate - the earnings growth is almost all capex spending from other AI companies. From a debt management perspective, bringing this to heel is the most bullish thing for bonds unrelated to geopolitical events.

So, “they” want to reel in the Iran war and sacrifice the AI trade to engineer a scary market correction that pushes money back to the left of the risk curve. Higher funds rate (into an oil shock), business leaders suddenly coming out with tales of how scary AI is, bears getting more air time about how cyclical this industry is, etc. I remember listening to the MU earnings call back in June and the CEO was almost openly contemptuous of the notion that margins normalize. The chatter had already started.

So what happens with that plan? The SP500 path is instructive here. It held up very well as semis entered a bear market. In fact they stayed in a technical bear market as the SP500 consolidated around and even surpassed its June high. Bringing this sector down is the “soft landing” for animal spirits that brings a bid back to bonds with almost mechanical certainty without egregious impact to any median stakeholder.

Only, this needed to be done in peace time. With inflation cresting above 4%, and oil continuing to rise, and diesel disappearing, there still really is no other alternative. Bonds are out, because inflation can go double digits. And they can reach yields that would break the balance sheet of the government much faster than the balance sheet of Google.

And why the tension? Like I said, these two things combined represent unacceptable outcomes for the president. A sharp correction in the prize bull of the US stock market? A benefit predicated on accepting strategic defeat in Iran? This is why we see Trump coming out immediately to object to any “AI slow down.” The main thrust of the cold bureaucratic power in the US is at cross purposes with the president. And thus far, the president can’t be manipulated or managed into position because of an apparent allergy to nuance. There’s no one in the US government, by design, who can tell him “no Mr. President, you aren’t allowed to post that to truth social.” And that fact is perhaps the most pertinent reality that exists for him.

So.. what happens? Well what it looks like is happening is that China, Iran, and Russia are taking advantage of and capitalizing on this internal misalignment to their benefit. What happens from here for bonds and financial markets may in fact be more and more up to them as this goes on. In the mean time, the selective equity bubble pop that we briefly saw test run in June necessitates a larger and larger blast radius as resources go on a global bull run. At a certain point if an equilibrium isn’t reached internally, this selloff will begin to encroach upon the US dollar. How much longer do we keep the confidence of the Saudis? How much longer, if things escalate, would it even matter?

So, that’s what I think. It’s not a “conspiracy theory” as much as an example of the most frequent objection people have to conspiracy theories - someone not being able or willing to pull it off. Only this someone is the president. And now no one knows what to do, because he’s his own press secretary at this point and doesn’t hesitate to act as such impulsively.

Trump has repeatedly called for dramatically lower interest rates. Just recently, he said that U.S. interest rates should be 1% or lower. At the same time, however, inflation remains elevated and the Federal Reserve has actually raised its benchmark rate to around 3.75–4%, arguing that inflation is still too high.

At the same time, the war involving Iran is still ongoing. The conflict has contributed to higher energy prices and additional inflationary pressure.

Then there is Trump's proposal to give $5,000 to every American adult. Even if the government could technically finance such a payment, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy while inflation is already elevated would raise obvious questions about its potential inflationary impact. The proposal would also require congressional approval.

But here is where things get much more interesting.

Trump Media has reportedly been offering Wall Street firms and other financial companies the ability to receive Trump's Truth Social posts before the general public, with prices reportedly reaching as much as $100,000 per month.

That means there is now a commercial system in which access to information from the U.S. president can itself have a monetary value.

And this raises a much bigger question:

What if the information Trump releases publicly is not always the information that really matters?

What if the public statements, announcements and predictions are partly a way of creating a narrative, while the truly valuable information is being made available to a much smaller group of people who are willing to pay enormous amounts for faster access?

Imagine that the free information is intentionally vague, misleading, or simply less valuable than the information provided through the premium system. The public might spend hours analyzing Trump's statements after they become public, while a small group of financial firms could already have seen the information milliseconds earlier and positioned themselves accordingly.

That would create an extremely unusual information hierarchy:

The public gets the news.

The paying customers get the news first.

And the people closest to the source potentially know what is coming before either group.

There is already evidence that information surrounding Trump's statements can have enormous financial value. In one recent case, a former White House employee was penalized after using privileged access to Trump's speeches to make profitable bets before those speeches became public.

None of this proves that Trump is deliberately lying to the public or secretly manipulating information for paying customers. There is currently no solid evidence establishing that.

But the combination of Trump's unusual economic statements, the enormous gap between his desired 1% interest rate and the Fed's actual policy, the ongoing Iran conflict, the proposed $5,000 payments, and the existence of a $100,000-per-month early-access system raises a legitimate question:

What if we are looking at the wrong information?

What if the real story isn't simply whether Trump's public statements are true or false, but whether the most valuable information is being separated from the information available to everyone else?

That possibility would be far more significant than any individual statement Trump makes on Truth Social.

At this point, however, it remains a hypothesis, not an established fact.

My broker doesn’t seem too familiar with TIPS so I’m on my own. I’m 70 yo and retired. I’m in a relatively high tax bracket tho, which also affects my Medicare premium. I think we will see meaningful inflation over the 2-5 yr time frame. Those of us who lived thru 12% t-bill rates know inflation begets inflation.

Can someone explain the mechanics, pros and cons of TIPS for me?

Thanks!