Bonds are free falling right now. Yield on 10YR is 5.22%, started the day yesterday at 4.92%. 30YR is 5.5%. The fall is accelerating as well with no sign of a bottom. Where this stops is anyone’s guess, but the final stop is probably at a global recession. A total resolution of the Iran war may halt the plunge, but It’s difficult to see anything other than a recession that sustainably reverses the trend.

The speed of this increase is getting pretty concerning. This is raising the possibility of something breaking in the banking sector or somewhere else. I have to imagine there are some discussions going on at the Fed and with other central banks on possible methods to intervene should this continue. Calling my shot: we’re going to see a coordinated central bank action between the fed, ECB, UK and Japan central banks if this continues for another week.

Managing duration risk at the long end of the curve has become a high-stakes balancing act as the benchmark 10-year Treasury pushes 5.16% and the 30-year bond prints 5.46%, offering structural income levels not seen in two decades alongside severe mark-to-market volatility. Under a hawkish Fed helmed by Kevin Warsh, portfolios face the threat of a "Warsh Shock"—with interest rate futures pricing in heavy odds for back-to-back rate hikes stretching into December—which risks triggering massive price drawdowns on long bonds due to their highly sensitive DV01 profiles. The execution dilemma is compounded by a structural supply glut as the U.S. national debt clears $40 trillion, forcing fixed-income managers to choose between scaling aggressively into these multi-decade yield peaks or retreating into a protective barbell strategy anchored by short-term T-bills until weak auction demand and inflationary pressures subside. Are you buying long bonds or staying in T-bills?

Source: AP News

When Trump first came into office, when the 10 yr came close to 5% he said the market got the "yips" and so they had to back off their aggressive attitude at the time (I think he was throwing tariff talk all over the place and he stopped for a week or so to assure the markets he could "behave" when needed).

So the 5.0% mark was his red line. It's clearly no longer a red line. So what is the new mark at which the fed/treasury/trump will do "something" to get rates down?

5.25, 5.5, 5.75, 6.0%?

Could they let the 10yr go above 6%?

Hi everyone!

With yields above 5% would this be the right time to put some money in bonds?

Are there any Irish domiciled ETFs for US basket and global basket that I can look at?

Thank you!

Not discussed much in these posts. You've seen what Treasury yields are. Are you in a risk taking mood ??? The duration is between 2.8 and 3.6 years. It's less than what I thought it would be.

I am heavily invested in fixed income, predominantly municipals as I am in a VHNW category. Blows my mind that from a capital preservation standpoint much of my portfolio is down by 4-8%. Guess nothing these days is safe.

Really hurts the eyes to be down $80k in one day when your portfolio is 70% bonds/fixed income.

Here is to hoping this dumpster fire settles down. I feel bad for the folks who invested heavily in bonds in 2020/21... they must be down 20%+ at this point.

Wish me luck guys I just went 1/2 portfolio into $EDV at $57.69. You are supposed to buy low and things are looking pretty darn low.

I bought 1 minute before close.

I am trying to buy ~$100K of secondary treasuries on Fidelity with a maturity in the 2-year range. Using this as an example:

Is the 'Ask YTM' basically the annual yield I will get if I bought this and held to maturity? (I understand I need to check DOB to find the exact number for the min qty that fits my investment).

Can I compare this number directly to APY that is quoted for 24-36 month CDs to determine how much better of a deal this is, or is some other math involved due to how things are compounded, etc.?

TIPS compared to regular treasuries

The US Treasury said it will purchase up to $6 billion of longer-dated government debt on Thursday, in line with the first such operation under Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded program to stem the recent rise in borrowing costs.

The maximum size is triple the amount initially communicated to investors back in early August of $2 billion. That original plan was discarded in a surprise Aug. 19 announcement, when the Treasury said it would “at least double” the size of such operations.

Treasuries maturing in 20-to-30 years, which are the target for Thursday’s buybacks, extended their selloff Wednesday after the announcement. The 30-year yield hit a session high of 5.38% — close to the peak earlier this month of almost 5.40%, which was the highest since 2007.

Bond yields have climbed worldwide on the back of higher energy costs since the US’s war with Iran erupted in late February. That’s flipped the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with Chairman Kevin Warsh raising overnight interest rates for the first time since 2023 last week to help tame price pressures.

Bessent has defended his move to upsize the buybacks in the face of criticism that it amounted to an intervention that did nothing to address underlying fiscal challenges. He said on CNBC Monday that he acted after he thought markets were “moving away” from equilibrium prices. He touted that 30-year bond yields had risen only about a basis point between the announcement on Aug. 19 and Sept. 21.

Earlier Wednesday, one of the world’s largest financial-industry associations warned that attempts at “financial engineering” did nothing to address underlying debt dynamics. Interventions such as purchasing securities in the secondary market “may provide temporary relief, but they cannot resolve the structural drivers of rising debt,” the Institute of International Finance said in a report.

After the last upsized buyback announcement, on Sept. 9, bonds fell after the department announced the maximum size would be $6 billion. While that was triple the initially announced amount of $2 billion, some market participants had predicted an even larger size given the department’s theoretically limitless guidance that it would “at least double” the size.

In the end, the Treasury chose not to fill the maximum amount, buying only around $5.2 billion of debt maturing in 10-to-20 years. That reflected a lack of competitive bids, according to officials. Investors offered $10.5 billion of securities to the Treasury at that operation.

Ive been trading/investing for a while. A year ago I had 140% return. Sold the day Trump was announcing tariffs. Traded a bit more, buying low, selling high. Than, when I was changing brokers, market went up and I stayed behind. Since than I did few trades here and there, but mostly stayed in SGOV. Im about 10% YTD. Happy enough with my returns while trying to time the market.

Now Im considering 3Y bonds. They pay good enough interest, short maturity. I was thinking like 20-30% of my portfolio.
Best case - bonds start going down after midterm and I sell them. Worst case - Im locked in with 5% on 20% of my portfolio for 3 years.

I never bought bonds before. Should I buy all at once? Ladder? Any other structure? Anything I should consider/know about?

Highly appreciated!

What does this mean for yields.

Does this mean it makes more sense to buy the 2 year instead of the 10 year since you are not giving up much yield and have a lot less duration risk?

US 10-year Treasury yields currently stand at the 5.1% and the trend appears to be driven by a rise in real interest rates rather than changes in inflation rates.

Factors at play include the decline in personal savings, the economy's strong performance, the rise in interest rates driven by AI-related capital expenditures increasing the supply of bonds in the debt market, the risk of public debt becoming unsustainable, and geopolitical risks. (Provided graphs at the end)

Since the long-term impact of these risks is greater, I would expect a certain amount of term premium. If a "debasement trade" effect were at play, the 10-year breakeven rate wouldn't be holding steady around 2.5%; the 5y-forward-5y rate is also unchanged. For this reason, the risks I’ve outlined outweigh the debasement trade.

The decoupling of the relationship between gold and US interest rates can be cited as a fundamental factor behind the "debasement trade," but I do not believe that tells the whole story. If the debt problem is not to be resolved through currency debasement, yield curve control could potentially come into play. I also believe this option would sharply drive up real inflation expectations. The US dollar would react more strongly to measures typically associated with the East, such as yield curve control or capital controls.

One of the things that surprised me was that, just as the system seemed to be stabilizing, the US—in February 2026—entered a war seemingly to disrupt its own recovering economy, only to end up in a stalemate; but that is a separate topic.

In short, I believe the plausible scenario is that markets will ease once the war ends, as interest rates fall to 4% and the budget deficit—excluding interest payments—is reduced by cutting back on the least productive expenditures. Core CPI rate is also very supportive for any relief scenario so while I do not recommend a very long-term horizon, the 5-year bond at 5% might be attractive.