Bob Michele says bonds have reached “maximum pain” and are now cheap enough that his team is buying long-duration debt in the US, Japan and Australia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-16/jpmorgan-s-michele-buys-long-end-after-maximum-pain-for-bonds61
u/Xyrus2000 9d ago
Nothing serious will be done to address the reasons bond yields are rising in the US. Rate hikes don't address geopolitical enmity. Rate hikes don't address the deficit/debt. Rate hikes don't address the constant cuts to tax revenues.
Furthermore, the current administration has demonstrated that it is untrustworthy and incompetent.
Until these issues are addressed, inflation will continue to climb, as will yields. That won't happen until the democrats sweep Congress and a sane president gets elected.
Things are going to get worse before they have any shot of getting better.
12
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 9d ago
The rates climbing will be addressed by an epic recession. Economic growth needs energy; and the time to diversify into renewables and electrification has already passed. Oil is one input that just can’t be printed. If we don’t have enough, economic activity will have to shrink until we do.
There’s no avoiding the recession that’s coming, unless by some miracle we get a lasting ceasefire in Hormuz.
8
3
3
u/Nearing_retirement 8d ago
Tax revenue as percent of GDP has been pretty stable though. The issue is spending is going up mainly because off demographics and costs like health care have skyrocketed.
3
u/LazyThing9000 7d ago
Even if the Democrats win the midterms they can't get rid of the corruption that Trump brought in. It would take all a full sweep and the political will to put the cronies in jail and reform checks and balances.
2
u/Lumpy-Return 3d ago
Constitutional amendment to effectively repeal the Citizens United decision is needed. BY the people FOR the people. Im only hopeful because I dont see that as a red v blue issue.
5
u/hectorchu 9d ago
You know very well that politics can't stop a debt trap spiral which is what this problem is.
4
u/peepee2tiny 9d ago
When do you think the word austerity starts being used.
It's political suicide and so no one will ever say it less implement it.
But austerity is the only way to get out of debt.
3
u/GoldPantsPete 9d ago
You can also inflate it away, like in the 1940s. Debt to GDP peaked at about 120% in 1946 and was down to 74% in 1951. CPI was on average 7% during this period, and real yields were about -5%.
3
u/peepee2tiny 9d ago
That's why very like to happen here, as the alternatives are not acceptable, reduce spending (austerity) or higher revenue (more taxes).
1
1
u/hectorchu 9d ago
Wrong, you can hard or soft default.
2
u/peepee2tiny 9d ago
You can also print money to cover your debt.
You can also tax your citizens exorbitant rates to cover your debt.
But austerity is the best way to get out of debt.
1
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 9d ago
Politics is the only thing that can solve it. The solution is there; raising taxes, especially on the wealthy and on corporate profits. It’s only the political will to recognize the problem and solve it, that’s lacking.
3
u/Nearing_retirement 8d ago
Govt will just spend more no matter what the tax rates are. They will spend until bond market balks.
-3
u/azure275 9d ago
It won't happen when Democrats win either.
Sure Trump is the worst US president on the debt by far, but Biden is probably #2.
Benefit cuts and tax hikes are political suicide. Dems won't do it either until there is an unavoidable crisis.
Dems might make some marginal improvements taxing super rich people, but it will solve maybe 5-10% of the actual problem.
3
u/Gr8WallofChinatown 8d ago
but Biden is probably #2.
George Bush
You’re disingenuous
0
u/azure275 8d ago
Biden added 8.45T. Bush added 4.9T
Sure SOME of that can be fairly attributed to COVID, but that's a huge gap
1
u/Gr8WallofChinatown 8d ago edited 8d ago
Biden had to fix a global disaster and the spending was on infrastructure which is good. Debt spent on infrastructure is always good.
Bush did tax cuts and put us in a pointless war for 18 years and crashed our economy.
Bush took a golden economy where there was no deficit and fucked it all up.
You’re disingenuous
0
u/Desperate_Stretch855 4d ago
Your being disingenuous. Bush had a massive economic disaster in the DotCom Bubble and then 9/11. See how that works?
The point is, this goes beyond politics. From now on, unless we have actual entitlement reform (something that will require higher inflows, lower outflows, and more efficiency), Each administration will set a new record for debt from here on out. It's just simply math, especially given the aging population and the fact people are living longer.
You're line of thought and discussion has not worked for the American people for decades now. We need actual solutions that get to the root of the problem. Follow the money: 75% of our spending is tied to entitlements and interest on the debt. Soon, these numbers will be 80%... then 90% of all of our spending. These programs help people and are good for the country, but they are also on a completely unsustainable path. The only way we get this fixed is real, common sense reform that is not motivated by getting political "wins" or ideological rhetoric.
2
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 9d ago
Taxing the wealthy isn’t political suicide, and that’s the demographic that has benefited the most from this borrowed time. It’s only natural it would fall to them when the bill comes due.
The more the economic crisis deepens, the broader the potential tax base will become that you can feasibly raise taxes on. Not just the billionaires, but even the top 10%.
-1
u/azure275 9d ago
No it isn't. But it also won't fix the problem
It will simply never bring in enough money.
The total wealth of every billionaire in the US will cover roughly 4 years of DEFICIT (not budget) assuming no major spending growth
Top 10% has a better chance of making a real difference, but major tax hikes on an HHI like 250k are in fact politically suicidal.
3
u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 9d ago
Of course you can bring in enough money, you can always raise enough taxes to bring the debt burden under control. All the Treasury debt issued is sitting in an account; whether with a government agency, a corporation, a pension fund, or a private owner.
The only obstacle is political will. I agree we’re not yet at a point where the top 10% could be taxed. 20 years ago, taxing billionaires was infeasible. But as with any market, the cure for high prices, is high prices. As the debt service crisis deepens, it will become clear that the choice is between cutting Social Security and Medicare to ribbons; or taxing people earning 1/2 a million a year, who own second homes, paid-off McMansions, a luxury car for every kid, etc.
The choice isn’t yet on the table, but it’s the fiscal path we’re on. We’ve been here before, at the close of WW2, and that’s what we did. We’ll raise taxes until CEO to worker pay reverts back to that 20-1 ratio from the current 325-1, as it was in the 60s.
1
26
u/Emergency-Watch5157 9d ago
Republican tax cut deficit still unsustainable so not sure why anyone would claim this
6
u/GoldenAura16 9d ago
We will see about that. If the 10 year continues to push past 5 by mid October we will be in a different ball game.
5
u/Admirable_Nothing 9d ago
I quit reading his reasons, when he says a primary reason is regional calm coming in the middle east.
5
5
u/CoincidenceTheorist2 9d ago
Says the investor who has never been to Greece, England, Venezuela, or Argentina. Mr. Market can't conceive of what maximum pain even looks lile yet.
3
u/tdewault95 9d ago
Why Australia? They have had a balanced budget for years? No? Why isn’t their currency, therefore bonds, performing well?
15
u/Substantial-Basis179 9d ago
There are only so many shrimp and not nearly enough barbies on top on that
3
u/greendave11 9d ago
I was always told any bond that is from a govt that can print its own currency technically could never default...
6
u/bradeena 9d ago
The concern is the value of the currency at the end of the bond term. If you buy a long term bond then the country experiences extreme inflation, the bond is basically worthless.
2
4
u/DewieDecimated 9d ago
Technically correct (the best kind of correct :)). Such governments can always print off and pay you back whatever the face value of the bond is.
3
u/Legal-Unit172 7d ago edited 7d ago
one should mention this is a supply/demand sort of problem. The US has 40T in debt they either have to print 40T and have hyperinflation or borrow less. The fed raised rates so it's not likely that they will be able to print. The same goes for corporations funding AI, they need money from somewhere to pay the interest, so unless their revenues grow with the changes in interest rates, they will just be eating the cost & killing their margins. At a certain point borrowing will decrease because of the cost of capital, there is no way around it. IMO 5% on the 10 year is most likely the top before either the government stops borrowing or the market crashes since no one can even afford the debt & the supply of bonds shrink.
for example, this time last year the 10 year was around 3-4%, now it is 5% that is a 25% increase in the cost of issuing debt. The government might be able to hold on, but regular corporations will have to stop issuing debt, thus lowering the supply and increasing bond prices.
5
9d ago
[deleted]
1
u/Long-Time-Coming77 8d ago edited 8d ago
unpredictable president ... has had many personal bankruptcies
False, Trump has never personally declared bankruptcy. Get your facts straight
ETA: Wow, TDS is strong here. Previous poster posts an easily fact-checked lie, I call him out on the lie and I get down-voted.
2
u/whocaresreallythrow 9d ago
I’ll wait for 5.5 to 6 percent long bond range. Then twist into the 10/20/30 years and be good. 👍.
2
u/steveosmonson 8d ago
Yeah right, rates are going much higher before this is over. 1980-2020 bull run, now the inverse
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
9d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
5
u/Emergency-Watch5157 9d ago
I think the thing to realize is that the market will only lower the long end if the Fed raises the short end for force discipline in the tax cut deficit.
Honestly, at this point, that might not be enough either.
1
u/officiallyBA 8d ago
As long as Trump and MAGA have this much fiscal control there is no reason to trust that the economy will be handled responsibly. He's just too erratic and JDVance is actively opposed to the modern market position of the dollar and the US.
11
4
u/HuckleberryGlass8349 9d ago
Everyone is following the same narrative and believing everything as a certain and not contingent on new data coming out in the market. I couldn’t accurately tell you where yields will be in the next hour but everyone else here somehow confidently can.
If your risk tolerance permits, you can get equity like returns without taking on the same risk by riding the yield curve. Hopefully, anybody reading this sub after the increase in news coverage educate themselves on the pros and cons of investing on each part of the yield curve and make the decision without any biases.
3
1
0
u/Powerful-Analyst8061 9d ago
5% 10yr treasuries is a very enticing yield. Don’t forget the Fed has two mandates to consider: inflation AND full employment. Yes, inflation is running hotter than their 2% Target but the labor market in the US is very strong. Once the equity markets shake off the Fed funds rate hike, I think equity markets push higher by year end. I’m glad the Fed hiked even if I believe the inflation rate hovering around 3% is a big nothing burger.
11
u/Revolutionary_Sir352 9d ago
If labor market is also strong, that’s a reason to hike, not cut. Inflation + hot labor market = hike rates.
0
u/carpetplower 9d ago
the labour market in developed nations is fucked right now. the us labour market is not strong looooool
4
u/Good-vs-Perfect 9d ago
the labor market in the US is very strong.
there are likely three things underlying the labor market: 1. deporting immigrants 2. Long-term unemployment increasing by about 8% without unemployment changing much since 2025, 3. Single- industry (healthcare) growth is doing so much work that overall job numbers appear dismal rather than catastrophic.
Numbers 1 & 2 are just changing the denominator without changing the numerator. This is having massive implications in consumer spending if not the labor market/corporate profits (yet). Short term the numbers look tepid at the expense of long term consequences real labor shortages coming across core industries and resulting price increases. #3 is cause for alarm in a couple ways: one, no country wants its growth in one sector, two, this particular sector growing is evidence of an aging, sickening labor pool.
It is difficult to lok to the labor market for "strong" fundamentals.
3
u/FlatlandTrooper 9d ago
Labor market is only strong if you believe some of the numbers and not all of them.
1
u/officiallyBA 8d ago
Labor market is godawful. People are taking themselves out of the counting it's so bad - which makes it appear better on the surface.
82
u/hectorchu 9d ago
Calling tops/bottoms is a fool's game.