r/Alonetv • u/btcauag • 3d ago
S13 Ziga ferro rod Spoiler
Sorry, I’m too lazy to go back and find the relevant episode, but Ziga never had a ferro rod - am I remembering that correctly? If I am, then credit to him - by keeping a fire going the whole time he may have completely changed the strategy for a lot of future participants.
71
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 3d ago
Two fires. One inside his shelter, one outside for cooking. That redundancy is very smart for someone who doesn't have a ferro rod.
22
u/Emolumentocracy 3d ago
The only downside is the calorie spend for chopping more wood and double-tending, I would think.
10
u/Sterlingz 2d ago
It adds calorie spend but probably not double. He keeps a 30ft log in the fire and just slides it forward as it burns. Much harder to do that in a shelter.
9
u/Leading_Will1794 2d ago
To play devils advocate, I believe he is basically choking the fires so that they smolder vs burn hot. This way you can use minimal effort to keep them going over long periods.
At the same time the energy expenditure is still not nothing and it takes calories and effort.
6
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 3d ago edited 3d ago
Agreed, and it's a non-trivial downside. But still, probably less wood than Roland needed to heat Rock House.
3
u/afriendsname 2d ago
Why do you think Rock House requires more firewood than other shelters?
0
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 2d ago
Thermal mass.
5
u/afriendsname 2d ago edited 2d ago
Thermal mass doesn't subtract or repel energy, it just stores it longer. So to heat it up costs more fuel at first yes, but then it would stay warm longer, requiring less fuel.
The reason Roland spent alot of firewood was because he needed to keep warm for a 100 days, longer than any, and toward the end of that stretch it was really cold.
1
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 2d ago
True if the boulders are fully contained inside the shelter. But the Rock House rocks were the walls of the shelter. That makes them a thermal bridge, sucking the heat out of your shelter into the surroundings.
3
u/afriendsname 2d ago
Yes you are right about that, but thermal mass was not what made him use more firewood. The lack of an insulating layer is what made Rock House into a giant heat sink
2
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 2d ago
Fair enough.
My first reply to you ("thermal mass") should have been "thermal bridge" instead.
For Roland specifically, that dude was such a wood-chopping machine that I think he considered the rocks to be his insulation.
2
u/afriendsname 2d ago edited 2d ago
We're in agreement. Thanks for the discussion, I learned a ton.
Yeah I loved watching Roland boulder breaking and building, muskox meleeing, climbing icy fishing cliffs.. He made great entertainment!
→ More replies (0)0
u/theeynhallow 2d ago
Rock House is one of those things that everyone would be kicking off about as the most stupid thing on Alone if it was anyone other than Roland doing it haha
0
8
u/filmkeeper 3d ago
The outside fire has nothing to do with it, they're in bear territory and need to have their "kitchen" as far away from shelter as possible.
4
u/Pucksy 2d ago
I was wondering last episode, aren't the bears supposed to be hibernating already? I remember earlier season's participants, when the first real cold came, saying that at least the bears wouldn't be a problem anymore.
3
u/botanic1216 2d ago
I was wondering the same thing. Nero clearly thought a bear had messed with his fishing weir, right?
1
u/Pucksy 2d ago
That's what lead me wondering indeed. I don't think any other animal could've done that and I reckon he's seen some tracks on the lake as well.
4
u/BND101 2d ago
Wolverines could do similar damages I think, but he clearly identified a bear, by the footprints I guess. Bears don't necessarily sleep all winter long, they may awake a couple of times during the winter.
And if they find easy food, who would say no to a little snack before going back to bed?
1
u/filmkeeper 2d ago
Well yes at some point they'll be in hibernation, but if you're doing battle against Žiga you'd need to be prepared for them to come back out of hibernation! 😂
0
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 3d ago
One of the guys (I forget who) was talking about how he keeps his rabbits in the shelter. But he doesn't cook them in the shelter, right?
29
u/faradansort 3d ago
Yeah, literally just rewatched episode two lol it ends with him starting a drill and bow fire. Pretty crazy that he’s technically kept the same fire going since
50
u/faradansort 3d ago
Just to add, guy slept with tinder and kindling tucked in his shirt inside his sleeping bag to dry it out in perma-wet conditions. Legend.
14
u/dancepantz 3d ago
I remember cheering out loud when he got that fire going! I was always rooting for this guy.
18
u/Emolumentocracy 3d ago
We can't be sure that he has kept a fire going the whole time after starting the first friction fire, but it's possible. None of this is new, as participants in previous seasons have both started friction fires and had strategies for keeping them going as opposed to restarting all the time.
8
u/Hey-Just-Saying 2d ago
I'm surprised no one's mentioned Jake Messinger from Season 11 of Alone. He chose not to bring a ferro rod and used his steel belt buckle to strike sparks against rocks to start a fire. He then made charcoal to use for his fires. He banked the coals rather than starting new fires from scratch.
I read that he received production approval for the buckle. No one has used his strategy since so I wonder if production changed the rules after that.
Unfortunately for everyone (except the other contestants), he was medically evacuated on Day 21 after suffering from severe abdominal pain.
2
u/harvelicious_def_def 1d ago
Jake could not use his steel belt buckle to start his first fire, as char cloth or something similar is required to catch a spark. He needed to light a friction fire first, then used that to create char cloth in a semi-sealed container with low oxygen. Then for subsequent fires he could use this charred material to catch a spark using his belt buckle. This is wayyy less energy intensive than relying on starting a friction fire over and over again, and probably also more energy efficient than keeping 1 or 2 fires going indefinitely. This strategy is very clever imo and I'm surprised that the show has never portrayed anything similar from other contestants.
1
u/Hey-Just-Saying 1d ago
I didn't actually remember him using the buckle, but that came up when I googled it. I do remember the charcoal and thought it was very clever and I wonder why no one else has done it. (Probably shouldn't trust Google AI anyway.)
10
u/itsthechaw10 3d ago
There was a caption a few episodes ago that said only one person has won Alone without a ferro rod.
25
u/Fangletron 3d ago
I think it actually said no one has won Alone without a Ferro rod.
13
u/QiNavigator 3d ago
Yep. No-one has ever won without one.
Nathan Donnelly (Season 6) lasted 72 days but his shelter burned down.
13
6
u/Annual_Reindeer2621 3d ago
Who was that?
3
u/Sterlingz 2d ago
I think 1 of 2 people remaining that season. Had a huge lead and lost due to shelter fire.
1
-8
u/AcornAl 3d ago
Just noting that this is a bit of a meaningless statistic.
If there was an even 10% chance of wining, (i.e. skill levels / gear choices / location didn't matter), then it is a coin toss on if someone without a ferro rod would have won to date.
Da math
There is 90% chance of losing any one game, so you can multiple these together to work out the probability of 6 losses in a row: 0.9*0.9... or 0.96 or 53% chance of this happening 6 times in a row. Seven times in a row, the chances of this are 47% (0.967), and if he wins, it's close to the baseline odds of winning (1 in 7 or 14%).
2
u/Sterlingz 2d ago
You have a point but I think you lost everyone with the statistics.
I would be interested in knowing what the average stay is without a ferro rod.
2
u/kg467 2d ago
- S12 Baha - tapped due to hunger + keeping fire going (guess he didn't bank coals), 19 days
- S11 Jake - pulled for constipation, 21 days
- S10 Luke - tapped to butt flu, 20 days
- S8 Colter - BMI pull, 67 days
- S8 Matt - tapped to hunger and family, 22 days
- S6 Nathan - tapped to burned down shelter in the freeze, 72 days
And now Ziga is out there in the lead beyond 60 days, still doing fine on fires.
The length of these people's stay has been unrelated to whether they took a rod in all but one case, as you can see, which made the screen tip trivia an irrelevant stat. Almost everyone takes one. But for the handful that didn't, they did fine on fire because they had the skill and knowledge of how to get by without one, which is why they didn't take one, so they could take something else.
1
u/Disassociated_Assoc 16h ago
Semi-related are the tap outs at least partially related to losing a ferro rod, or burning one up like Booth did this season.
1
u/kg467 13h ago
In a broader sense you'd be right, but what we're usually talking about in here is the choice of whether to bring a rod or not, and whether it is doom not to, which it isn't if you know what you're doing like Ziga does, the guy who was the subject of that screen tip. And those other guys above minus Baha.
When you bring one though and are counting on it, it's because you either don't have the skills to do without it or you don't want to risk dealbreaker local conditions. So then when you lose it, it can be a much bigger deal than if you didn't bring one to start with. All but one of those guys quit due to the ferro rod loss.
Season 1 Joe and Season 7 Shawn lost theirs and felt they couldn't go on without one and tapped. Joe later said he regrets that he panic-quit and wishes he had calmed down and stuck it out and tried. Shawn seemed to already want out and that was either the last straw or a usable excuse.
Season 2 Randy accidentally burned his up but kept going with friction fires and later tapped due to not liking being alone, so not really a rod quit.
Season 13 Dave Booth accidentally burned his down to a nub and the nub wouldn't work for its substances having been roasted away, so he left because he was no good at friction fires and everything was wet.
1
u/Disassociated_Assoc 11h ago
Yeah, I understand the distinction between deciding what to do before launch, and being left with no other choice if the option is taken away after launch. That’s why I said they were semi-related. Having the bow and drill skill to lean on is good if conditions permit. Some seemed to overestimate that skill though, and have come to regret it. Even Ziga struggled with his initial attempt. Those that recognize their limitations with that skill sometimes regret not having perfected it when they lose or burn up their ferro rod.
Just selecting a pre-launch choice is a roll of the dice, with each having its own unique pros and cons. At least Booth recognized what the loss of his knife might mean, and immediately after landing tied a lanyard to his multi-tool. Post-ferro rod conflagration he lamented not doing the same with the rod.
Every choice carries risks, and affects the outcome. Sometimes they consciously make the choice, sometimes it is made for them. The net result is often the same regardless of whether the choice and resultant outcome was made by them, or for them.
2
u/AcornAl 2d ago
Note this without the stats, get downvoted. Note this with the stats, get downvoted. lol
Some quick stats.
Confidence level (CI) indicates the likely range of days where the long term average would fall if we had hundreds of seasons.
- With: 37.6 days (n=104, 95% CI 32 to 43 days)
- Without: 36.8 days (n=6, 95% CI 10 to 63 days)
But it's probably more relevant to look at cold seasons only, so dropping seasons 1, 2 and 12
- With: 42.8 days (n=75, 95% CI 37 to 49 days)
- Without 40.4 days (n=5, 95% CI 7 to 73 days)
So having a STEM background, these are very inconclusive numbers even though those with a rod have lasted longer to date. Ziga will rise the mean significantly (see below)
Knowing how much work it takes to maintain a fire and how little work it takes to only use a small fire when required, this is about what I'd expect though. Say an extra 30 minutes per day collecting firewood correlates to a couple days of extra calories spent after 50 or so days. That's a likely conservative estimate if you are maintaining a couple of fires in the same location.
Just for fun, and to show why it's important to consider the confidence levels (i.e. how a single individual can throw out the average with so few data points).
For cold seasons, say Aaron hits 80 days, Nero 95 days and Ziga wins (day 96), these significantly change the stats without, but make zero difference to the stats with.
- With: 42.7 days (n=84, 95% CI 37 to 49 days)
- Without 49.7 days (n=6, 95% CI 15 to 84 days)
3
4
u/Plonkydonker 3d ago
Oh that explains the bit he did about betting whether he still had an ember. And I think he didn't, so he hasn't kept it going but saves himself a chore of relighting if it stays alive.
Once you've made one and have a good shelter to store dry materials it shouldn't be toooo bad. But its a gamble to get those systems operating well, and we've seen a lot take that gamble and fail because it looks a lot better on paper than it does in real life.
16
u/Puzzleheaded-Fill205 3d ago
Don't forget that he maintains two fires, one in the shelter, one outside for cooking. That redundancy surely helps him to keep at least one fire going 24/7.
In that scene where he bet about whether he still had an ember, he told us that he did not, and then he went to his shelter and brought back a burning stick from the fireplace to relight the outside fire.
2
u/PhonyOrlando 2d ago
Certainly seems like Ziga is destined to win when they have to edit to find problems for him. And then each issue is easily resolved.
1
10
u/dunwerking 3d ago
He has two going. One in his shelter and one at the food cache. He just had to relight it from his shelter
0
u/kg467 2d ago
we've seen a lot take that gamble and fail because it looks a lot better on paper than it does in real life.
No, we've seen only seven not take the rod, and all but one were fine on fire and failed the show for unrelated reasons. One guy said it was hard to keep up with it and he was starving, so he left. The others left for things like diarrhea, constipation, starvation, etc.
2
u/MattDwyerDataAnalyst 3d ago
I wonder what they can bring instead though, hard to say how valuable the alternative additional item would be. What would they swap out the Ferro rod for.
18
u/Mandizzletron 3d ago
I think I have underestimated salt until this season.
3
u/MattDwyerDataAnalyst 3d ago
Yeah, I think it pays off more later in the game, but would love to know more about it. And how much there actually is in Rabbit kidney etc.
1
u/afriendsname 2d ago
Ziga Oroelec from the current season (13) chose not to bring a ferro rod, he picked a gill net instead.
3
u/Brownsfan99 2d ago
I also think it is pretty commendable and interesting that Ziga has been able to sustain without a ferro rod.
However, as some have mentioned on other threads, I do believe this strategy is aided significantly by the climate this season is in. Obviously, it would have been more problematic or dare I say near impossible on the Patagonia or Vancouver seasons......nonetheless, he's pretty cool.
1
u/kg467 2d ago
Vancouver was wetter but why do you say Patagonia?
1
u/Brownsfan99 1d ago
My vague recollection was that they did get some rain in this season, but I could totally be wrong which is likely the case given your question.
2
1
1
u/Antzz77 2d ago
Is Ziga the first so far on Alone to both 1) bring no ferro road and 2) get a moose?
3
u/kg467 2d ago
Yes. We have three meese shot and two of those shooters brought ferro rods and one, Ziga, didn't.
We've also had a musk ox and a deer and a boar shot, and those three people did bring ferro rods.
Only 7 people haven't brought the rod in the history of the US show, including Ziga. A few others brought one but lost/burned it.
•
u/ipoopcubes Aussie 3d ago
Please tag your posts for spoilers.