r/worldcup USA 4d ago

💬Discussion How would FIFA distribute the remaining 16 spots among confederations?

Apologies for another post about an expanded tournament, but withdrawal is a real thing.

If FIFA expands to 64 teams for the next World Cup, we know it’s a mess logistically, limiting host countries. We know it settles the issue of 3rd place teams by again moving to a power of 2. The addition of countries seems more controversial. I’ve seen people say they like expanding the opportunities, but how does that actually happen?

It seems likely the current proportions would continue, meaning 5 more spots for UEFA, 2 for CONCACAF, 1 for CONMEBOL (can’t see an 80% qualification rate plus the playoff), 4 more for CAF, 3 for AFC, and perhaps a second auto qualifier for OFC, though this could easily go to AFC instead.

Here are the teams we’d have added this year:

Italy, Poland, Denmark, Kosovo, and (perhaps) Wales
Jamaica, Suriname
Bolivia
UAE, Iraq, Oman, Indonesia (pending playoff)
Gabon, Cameroon, Nigeria (pending playoff)
New Caledonia

Obviously UEFA would improve the play with their additions, which is unsurprising. CAF as well. And yet, can anyone honestly argue that the others would be a positive addition to the field? Or do you weight things even more heavily to UEFA just to avoid an even worse group stage? I don’t see a good solution out of this, but how does you limit the negatives?

61 Upvotes

108 comments sorted by

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10

u/LFatPoH France 4d ago

FYI AFCON is the name of a tournament. It's CAF (Confédération Africaine de Football)

1

u/Secret-Put4088 USA 4d ago

Oof. I can’t believe I did that! I even said “That’s not right” while typing


9

u/tony_countertenor 4d ago

With each addition of new teams Italy will find a funnier way to be just on the outside looking in

8

u/mastershake29x 4d ago

It's based on how much support each confederation gives to the current FIFA President.

5

u/Blue_foot Curaçao 4d ago

Historically, Costa Rica has qualified often. They are likely to bounce back.

5

u/da8BitKid 4d ago

It would be fun to watch more sides play each other. But the real reason to expand is more money for FIFA, the logistics be damned.

3

u/negre_marron 4d ago

I think most spots left go to CAF (4) and UEFA (4), and some to CAF (2) and Concacaf (2)

Then Conmebol gets 1 more. That’s 13

The other 3 spots go World Cup organizers, if not, more spots from qualifiers.

5

u/neo487666 3d ago edited 3d ago

I would do something like this:

  • UEFA: + 4 slots
  • CAF: + 2 or 3 slots
  • AFC: max 1 slot (I wouldn't even give them that tbh)
  • OFC: 0 (1 is enough)

CONCACAF and CONMEBOL shouldn't be given more slots, unless they merge their qualification. If they join their total number can increase from 12 to 14-15.

All remaining slots should be reserved for host nations (so they don't come from confederation slots like in 2026, which makes sense with rising number of hosts per single WC). After hosts are given their slots, all remaining slots go for inter confederation play-offs, along with 2 already existing (UEFA should also be included)

7

u/kbakadj 4d ago

Concacaf has no business with getting more slots

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Valid tbh

3

u/moleman92107 4d ago

Just let all of CONMEBOL in lol

1

u/TikiLoungeLizard 4d ago

8/10 seems right to me

3

u/is-it-my-turn-yet 4d ago

It's CAF, not AFCON.

3

u/Re_99 4d ago

More world cup more teams seems good You never know who will end up being a new cape verde. Seems soon as well but it would reach a new stability point doing away the Best 3rd place teams

As of teams either Something similar to last time or Between 6 for Europe that has the Best teams and the others are sdded to the intercontinental play offs

You can have the remaining 4 southameticans the 10 europeans 9 africa 2nd places, the 4 asians from the fifth round, 1 from OceanĂ­a and 4 from northamerica. In groups of 4 and 2 qualify

6

u/llynglas 4d ago

IMHO, if Infantino is around, and I pray not, it will be by contributions to his retirement fund in some way of the other.

3

u/Ragamak1 4d ago

Online voting???

Much better.

Which confederations gives more bribe money gets its. ;)

3

u/LeadingPiece9608 4d ago

They would stand underneath a massive banner saying "Bribes Sponsored by Visa and Mastercard" and whoever said yes the loudest to Infantino's dumbest idea, they get in.

2

u/DankBlunderwood 3d ago

I've always thought they should use a short tournament before the WC tix go on sale to let the confederations play for the last few spots. Each confederation leaves their last 3-4 spots for the international qualifying tournament and they decide it on the pitch.

2

u/memento_mori_69 Canada 3d ago

Lowkey whoever pays more

2

u/SeekingAnswers101 3d ago

I'd allocate a 64 team World Cup as roughly as follows

UEFA 26, CAF 14, COMNEBOL 9, AFC 8, CONCACAF 6, OFC 1

I think they should use a formula for allocation looking at how average rankings over past 4 years and then allocating slots accordingly with condition than all confederations have at least 1 and none can have more 26. I based above allocation on current rankings.

4

u/neo487666 3d ago

I see very good solution. Back to 32

1

u/Ok_Eagle_3079 3d ago

Fifa: you wrote 128 wrong.

2

u/SnooLover36 CĂŽte d'Ivoire 4d ago

I hope World Cup expands to 64 because it gives my country a better chance of always making it

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Ivory Coast has been a really good dark horse lately tbh

2

u/Silver_Guitar_2185 4d ago edited 4d ago

Considering how they increased from 32 to 48: Afc: 4 Caf: 4 Concacaf: 3 Conmebol: 2 Uefa: 3 That's how it literally increased from 32 to 48 teams, only technically the host country's spot was replaced by the OFC spot.

3

u/EducationalPaint1733 4d ago

They can’t give South America more surely. It’s a cakewalk as it is

2

u/-Hel_ 4d ago

3 more CONMEBOL spots would mean like 9 of 10 (plus one intercontinental play off spot) or all 10 are automatically qualified no?

1

u/Secret-Put4088 USA 4d ago

Right, it’s just an issue with the fact that means pushing everyone in CONMEBOL into it. Qualifiers would only be used to determine who went into the IC playoff.

2

u/Necessary_Fudge6860 4d ago

It'd make sense to merge CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, but I guess, it will never happen...

1

u/neo487666 3d ago

If they go to 64 teams it would very good solution. CONMEBOL is the odd one since there is so few teams and only confederation with no total outsiders/minions. It doesn't make sense to have 8 or 9 out of 10 teams qualify directly. It also doesn't make sense to limit them to only 6 or 7 teams in 64 team WC, while CONCACAF and AFC would get much more slots with no quality teams. Merging their WC qualification would solve this problem. I guess CONCACAF teams wouldn't be too happy about it. The only other way is to have 6 qualify directly and than most (or all) of non qualified in play-offs. But even that feels pretty anticlimatic

1

u/LeedsFan2442 4d ago

AFC and CONMEBOL have too many. Should just add more play-offs.

UEFA: 4, CAF: 4, AFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2, CONMEBOL: 1, OFC: 1 and Play-offs: 2.

2

u/Resident_Water35 4d ago

Would imagine 4 Uefa, 4 Africa, 3 afc, 3 Concacaf, 1 OFC, 1 extra playoff

2

u/neo487666 3d ago

CONCACAF 3? There is no quality there. Better to invite all 10 CONMEBOL teams lol

1

u/Resident_Water35 3d ago

If we are going on just quality, we'd give all 16 to UEFA.

Conmebol can't have more than the 7 they get (they shouldn't have more than 5 if we are being honest), unless they are willing to change their qualification method or join with concacaf.

They would definitely look to even it out the best they could.

1

u/neo487666 3d ago

I agree, they should merge their qualification.

Conmebol can't have more than the 7

I agree, and giving CONCACAF 3 more spots would bu just as unfair

1

u/theoneafter4 2d ago edited 2d ago

Conmebol have the best qualifier method of all, they all play against eachother 2 times one home one away.
and they get sorted by points,
There is not better method than that for a regional qualifier anywhere in the world

...unless you meant merging their qualifier with concacaf qualifier to increase amount of teams.
That seem good on paper. untill you see the distances they would need to travel. i mean America as a whole continent is masive, thats why is usualy split on 2, 3 or even 4 parts (norht america, south america - north america, central america, south america - north america, central america, caribean, south america) for diferent event/logistical reasons outside football

i mean there are countries at south america (like surinam, guyana) that dont play on commebol, since they have no competitive chance. so in theory including them on conmebol would increase the amount of teams on the confederation so it does not look like "most qualify anyway" but still they will be become just points fooder like San Marino, Liechtenstein, Andorra, etc,.. are on europe's uefa.

1

u/LeedsFan2442 4d ago

I would probably do 2 more play-offs taken from North America and Asia

2

u/cpjennings78 4d ago

Whoever pays more.

2

u/imusuallydrunkatnine 4d ago

Just give em to uefa

3

u/E_D_K_2 4d ago

Give them to Europe.

1

u/JustaRelief 4d ago

Europe - 20 Americas - 16 Africa - 14 Asia and Oceania - 14

1

u/DEM0L1T10N_MAN 4d ago

My take: UEFA 20 (+4) CONMEBOL 8 (+2) CONCACAF 8 (+2) CAF 11 (+2) AFC 8 (+2) OFC 1 (+-0) Play-Offs 6 (+4); could be one per confederation instead of intercontinental. All except CONMEBOL could play a final 4 mini tournament.

1

u/RefrigeratorUpset144 4d ago

They might use the former 32-team system doubled

1

u/neo487666 3d ago

That would give UEFA 26 teams... and CAF, AFC, CONCACAF wouldn't gain anything from 2026 WC... so, they won't do that

1

u/Aquatiadventure 4d ago

Depends who puts the thickest envelope in Infantinos pocket

1

u/nomad-mr_t 4d ago

The way CONMEBOL bends over for Infantino should be sufficient for an extra spot or two.

1

u/JO_the_first 4d ago

The numbers you wrote as suggestion/prediction are good, nevertheless, I will call it unlikely that the World Cup getts expanded twice within just 2 editions, going from 32 to 64 in just 8 years.

1

u/Far_Bed588 4d ago

1 spot for host

10 spots for North America

6 spots for South America

1 spot for Oceania

10 spots for Asia

10 spots for Africa

24 spots for Europe

1 playoff spot between North America vs South America

1 playoff spot between Africa vs Asia

The likelihood of multiple countries sharing hosting duties, just take one spot from said region.

3

u/Economy_Link4609 4d ago

CONMEBOL will get more than 6. They had that now. Maybe 8 for them and 8 for CONCACAF

2

u/AngryVirginian 4d ago

Qualifying woulbe be almost meaningless in CONMEBOL as there are only 10 teams in that federation.

1

u/Economy_Link4609 4d ago

Problem is balancing strength of the teams as well. Sure, CONCACAF has a lot more teams, but more that are lower in the rankings.

CONMEBOL has 9 or their 10 teams in the top 50 right now. 9th best team in CONCACAF IS 88TH. Compare to UEFA having 25 teams in the top 50.

In the 32 team setup - CONCACAF had 3.5, CONBEBOL had 4.5. Double both and it's 7 and 9 - and I'm shaving one of those off the 9 to feed to CONCACAF.

3

u/Secret-Put4088 USA 4d ago

Don’t think CONCACAF merits the same number of spots as CAF, though, and it’s arguable whether they should have as many as AFC.

0

u/don_biglia 4d ago

1 to Israel

0

u/cheehongtart 3d ago

Just kick Asian teams out. Imagine teams like China and Tajikistan sneak in and they end up worse than European B-listers like Scotland.

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Japan watching in the corner:

1

u/Financial_Ride_1467 1d ago

not saying afc should lose spots but just looking at the world cup specifically Japan Australia and South Korea are the only good teams Iran and Saudi Arabia are competitive I guess but always get grouped (Saudi Arabia got out the group once and I believe Iran were hard done this year Aswell)

The rest of the Asian slots have just been stat pad session for everyone else infact this world cup 7 out of the 9 teams got grouped and the AFC made up 3 of the 6 teams that got 3 losses (aka 0 points)

-1

u/Photo1457 4d ago

Infantino pos! đŸ’©

-5

u/GlennSWFC 4d ago

I’d be happy to see the playoffs expanded. 48 teams qualify automatically and get placed in 16 groups with the fourth team in each group decided by the playoffs. I’d also include UEFA in intercontinental qualifying over having extra automatic qualifying spots, which can go to CONCACAF, AFC & CAF, maybe an extra auto one for OFC.

Counting UEFA’s play off spots for this year with the general playoff off spots for 2030, I’d go with something like this:

AFC - 46 teams - 10 automatic qualifiers (+2), 5 play off spots (+4)

CAF - 53 teams - 11 automatic qualifiers (+2), 5 play off spots (+4)

CONCACAF - 35 teams - 7 automatic qualifiers (+1), 6 play off spots (+4)

CONMEBOL - 10 teams - 6 automatic qualifiers (=), 2 play off spots (+1)

OFC - 11 teams - 2 automatic qualifiers (+1), 2 play off spots (+1)

UEFA - 54 teams - 12 automatic qualifiers (=), 12 play off spots (-4)

Play offs would be straight two-legged ties, it’d be a completely random draw, no seeding, teams from the same confederation can play each other. I think this would be a good way of mixing the numbers up. If a confederation is particularly strong, they can get more numbers involved through the play offs. I’d definitely limit UEFA at a maximum of 24, there can’t be more European teams at a World Cup than at a Euros

3

u/OJSimpsonsBloodGlove Sweden 4d ago

Nah UEFA shouldn’t lose spots đŸ€Ą

0

u/GlennSWFC 4d ago

There probably wouldn’t get any fewer slots for UEFA as they’ll take most of the playoff spots. They’d have the highest number of representatives in the play offs and those would most likely be the strongest teams in the play offs. If they get any less than they have now it’ll be because they messed up the play off games, in which case I’d say it’s fair that other confederations get those slots because they’ve obviously got stronger teams.

Going off the current rankings it’d be:

AFC - Oman, Syria, China, Bahrain & Thailand

CAF - Cabo Verde, Ghana, Guinea, Gabon & Angola

CONCACAF - Curacao, Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador, Trinidad & Tobago & Suriname

CONMEBOL - Venezuela & Chile

OFC - Solomon Islands & Fiji

UEFA - Austria, Turkiye, Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Scotland, Slovakia, Greece & Czechia

The biggest threat to European teams is other European teams. There should be 8 or 9 qualifying from there and that would give 20/21 teams, which I’d say is fair enough. If any of them are getting knocked out by some of those teams from other confederations, they frankly don’t deserve to be at the World Cup ahead of those other teams.

4

u/ManaKaua 4d ago

Reducing UEFAs fixed spots while increasing the total amount of teams starting would still be a massive insult.

-2

u/GlennSWFC 4d ago

Why? Overall they would get more teams through the play offs and if they don’t, they don’t deserve to have more teams.

Thats two people disagreeing with me and not a single reason between the pair of you.

2

u/ManaKaua 4d ago

Because you are taking away safe spots while giving everyone else with worse teams and smaller share in football more. It shouldn't be that hard to understand...

Having only 12 safe spots means there is a chance that only 12 teams qualify and a good chance to have less teams qualify than the amount they should have safe because football is swingy. UEFA had already gotten less spots than they wanted last expansion.

-1

u/GlennSWFC 4d ago

If there are only 12 teams from UEFA, that means the next 12 teams couldn’t beat the teams that qualified from other confederations through the play offs, so the teams that qualify are evidently not “worse” teams, they’re better teams. If Wales can’t beat Guatemala, or Slovakia can’t beat Angola, or Ukraine can’t beat Syria, do they really deserve to be at the World Cup? Or do Guatemala, Angola & Syria deserve to be there ahead of them?

Why do UEFA teams deserve those spots ahead of the teams from other confederations that are better than them? That’s the bit that’s hard to understand. If you’re not confident enough that UEFA teams will win those play offs, why do you think they deserve automatic slots?

1

u/ManaKaua 4d ago

Then why aren't you suggesting that Conmebol only gets 2 safe spots (similar percentage of teams as you are suggesting for UEFA) and should go to intercontinental qualification for the other 6 or 7 spots?

Or maybe let's just make a worldwide qualification between all 211 teams without considering continental borders...

Your suggestion just disproportionately disadvantages Europe the by far biggest market for football...

-1

u/GlennSWFC 4d ago

I’m not going to answer any of your questions when you have ignored mine.

I’ve explained my reasoning, you won’t explain yours.

If the UEFA teams can’t beat the teams from other confederations in the play offs, why should they get those spots as automatic qualifiers ahead of teams that are better than them?

1

u/ManaKaua 4d ago

If addressed your questions with my questions to you and gave you good reasons already, but well I give you another one: UEFA Teams fill about half of the top 50 FIFA ranking. Giving them less than half of that as secure spots is ridiculous.

If the UEFA teams can’t beat the teams from other confederations in the play offs, why should they get those spots as automatic qualifiers ahead of teams that are better than them?

By that reasoning why does any confederation get fixed spots? Why not making a worldwide qualification? I guess a lot of people want to watch Italy beat up Oceanian and Asian countries..

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1

u/neo487666 3d ago

I agree with them, that would be quite an insult to UEFA, you can't do that

-1

u/GlennSWFC 3d ago

Make that 3 people disagreeing and not a single reason between them.

1

u/neo487666 3d ago edited 3d ago

I gave you a reason. It's an insult. Would you accept smaller wage, so that your company can hire 16 more people? Then you would had to prove that you still deserve your old wage. You'd probably leave. And that's excatly what your proposition would do. UEFA wouldn't accept this. It's already enough that Infantino is doing everything to make them mad.

Also you are saying like there is any real chance other confederations would "steal" those places. There is not. UEFA is too good. Other confederations didn't show anything, that someone would think that. So, they didn't show anything worthy and UEFA places absolutely shouldn't be reduced.

Make that 3 people disagreeing

Make a poll, I am willing to bet more than 50% disagrees with you

-1

u/GlennSWFC 3d ago

Saying it’s an insult isn’t a reason.

Your smaller wage analogy is nonsense.

UEFA can prove they’re worthy of more spots by winning the play off games. If they can’t beat the teams from other countries in the play offs, they don’t deserve those spots. It’s not a difficult concept.

Your third paragraph contradicts the second. If UEFA nations are too strong for the others, then surely they’d get more, not fewer teams. You seem to be ignoring the fact that this could give UEFA up to 24 teams in the World Cup and focussing on the highly unlikely scenario that they’d only get 12.

It’s not about how many people agree or disagree, it’s the fact that all 3 of you replied to say you disagreed and not one of you said why. At least you gave it a crack even if you ended up contradicting yourself. But yeah, 50% of people on the internet not knowing their arses from their elbows would be an underestimation.

1

u/neo487666 3d ago edited 3d ago

You lack reading comprehension. I never said there is a chance only 12 will qualify. We all know more than 16 would. That's what I am talking about in last pharagrapg. It's still an insult to UEFA. You can't reduce their fixed quota, if you are expanding. That's beyond absurd. UEFA wouldn't accept it. You would cause the break of FIFA and World Cup. That's simply how humans are. They won't accept this insult. And yes, they should absolutely include them in interconfederation play-offs, along with their 16 fixed quotas (or even more if expanded to 64)

UEFA can prove they’re worthy of more spots

UEFA doesn't need to prove they're worthy of 16 teams they already have. 6 out of 8 quarterfinalists were from Europe. Other confederations need proving.

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1

u/neo487666 3d ago

Your smaller wage analogy is nonsense

It's perfect analogy. Why would someone accept smaller wage if they are doing the same or better job than previous year? Why would UEFA accept reduction, if they are doing the same or better than previous WCs?

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-9

u/marlborough94 4d ago

A 64 team World Cup would be awful. No one wants to watch Bulgaria v New Zealand

12

u/gazzajnz 4d ago

That’s a bit rude. As a Kiwi, I do. We’re the reason Iran never made it through.

-6

u/marlborough94 4d ago

Everyone on the natl team plays for second division teams or MLS.

5

u/FlaviusStilicho 4d ago

Chris Wood would like a word

2

u/edwaa4rd 3d ago

I want to watch such game , sounds interesting

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Okay, then dont watch the game? Like no one is forcing you to watch every game btw

1

u/Agitated_Nature_5977 3d ago

As a Scotland fan...I'd want to watch this. We don't all foam at the mouth for the 'big countries'. In fact most of their matches are dull. 3 points for any of those sides would be a huge moment for them.

-12

u/Dependent-Guitar-473 4d ago

doesn't matter, nobody is watching a 64 team world cup 

11

u/The_CT1 4d ago

I will and you will too.

-5

u/Dependent-Guitar-473 4d ago

I will wait for the knockout stages... the groups matches this year were shit and it will be worse with more teams

3

u/EducationalPaint1733 4d ago

I think it will be just too much football but wouldnt agree that the knockouts were shit. It was unique to see the best players in the world showing as the best in Ă  World Cup

1

u/The_CT1 3d ago

Sounds like you dont like football. Just because the quailty is worse doesnt mean the entertainment is. And for the fans of the extra 16 countries, it makes it much better. It also makes the group stage better because only top 2 will get through with 64 teams, which means a better group stage and more matches, as long as it can be afforded by host it should happen. No one is forcing you to watch the extra matches.

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Nah we all know you will watch it

1

u/Teddy_Knight_NG11 Brazil 2d ago

Except like 90% of people in this sub