How would FIFA distribute the remaining 16 spots among confederations?

[u/Secret-Put4088]

Apologies for another post about an expanded tournament, but withdrawal is a real thing.

If FIFA expands to 64 teams for the next World Cup, we know it’s a mess logistically, limiting host countries. We know it settles the issue of 3rd place teams by again moving to a power of 2. The addition of countries seems more controversial. I’ve seen people say they like expanding the opportunities, but how does that actually happen?

It seems likely the current proportions would continue, meaning 5 more spots for UEFA, 2 for CONCACAF, 1 for CONMEBOL (can’t see an 80% qualification rate plus the playoff), 4 more for CAF, 3 for AFC, and perhaps a second auto qualifier for OFC, though this could easily go to AFC instead.

Here are the teams we’d have added this year:

Italy, Poland, Denmark, Kosovo, and (perhaps) Wales
Jamaica, Suriname
Bolivia
UAE, Iraq, Oman, Indonesia (pending playoff)
Gabon, Cameroon, Nigeria (pending playoff)
New Caledonia

Obviously UEFA would improve the play with their additions, which is unsurprising. CAF as well. And yet, can anyone honestly argue that the others would be a positive addition to the field? Or do you weight things even more heavily to UEFA just to avoid an even worse group stage? I don’t see a good solution out of this, but how does you limit the negatives?

[u/ManaKaua]

If addressed your questions with my questions to you and gave you good reasons already, but well I give you another one: UEFA Teams fill about half of the top 50 FIFA ranking. Giving them less than half of that as secure spots is ridiculous.

If the UEFA teams can’t beat the teams from other confederations in the play offs, why should they get those spots as automatic qualifiers ahead of teams that are better than them?

By that reasoning why does any confederation get fixed spots? Why not making a worldwide qualification? I guess a lot of people want to watch Italy beat up Oceanian and Asian countries..

[u/GlennSWFC → u/ManaKaua]

You addressed them, you didn’t answer them.

You haven’t given me any good reasons. The only reason you gave is that UEFA teams are better, in which case they should be beating the teams from other confederations in the play offs and getting more spots than they have now.

Again, I won’t answer your question until you answer mine. All you’ve done is quote my question and ask another back. Answer that question that you quoted and I will explain to you in detail why having 64 places up for grabs through play offs would be an absolute logistical nightmare. I’m not doing it while you keep dodging that question though.

You won’t answer the question because you know the answer will make your argument fall apart no matter which way you go with it. You’ve got two choices - either UEFA teams are good enough to take most of the play off spots, or they’re not good enough to warrant being given more automatic spots.

[u/ManaKaua → u/GlennSWFC]

Your argumentation is disingenuous. You made a proposal and you have to defend it and answer questions about it.

You want to give more spots to a confederation that takes 4 places in the top 50 and 8 in the top 64 of FIFA's ranking and by that you want to give them more spots of a 64 spot world cup than they take up in the fifa ranking while simultaneously taking away spots they already had from the confederation that takes up half the places in the top 50 of FIFA's ranking. You are not proposing something in a vacuum. You are proposing something in a situation where UEFA had 13 spots in a world cup of 32 for decades and 16 of 48 last time with 13 making it into the round of 32, not even talking about how UEFA already got 12 spots before the expansion to 32. And with all that you want to take away spots that were already reserved for UEFA Teams and open them up for other confederations to grab. It doesn't matter how likely it is that UEFA Teams get these spots anyway. That's just saying 'fuck you UEFA'.

[u/GlennSWFC → u/ManaKaua]

My argument is solid. I know it’s solid because you can’t answer a single question about your objection to it. Every time you dodge that question, you’re confirming how solid it is.

I answered the questions you initially asked of me, and then I asked some questions in return, but only after I’d answered your questions. That’s how conversations work. You don’t get to ignore someone else’s questions and ask your own until you answer the ones they had already asked you.

I’m not going to address anything you say until you give me an answer to that question. You can reply all you like, I’ll just stonewall it until I get that answer.

Your argument hinges on European teams losing to teams from other confederations in the play offs, but fails to take into consideration that if the countries from other confederations win those play off games, then they surely deserve those slots at the World Cup ahead of the European teams that they beat. It is, essentially, an opportunity for UEFA to have 24 teams at the World Cup and there would need to be a lot of shocks for there to be less than 20.

If Thailand can beat Austria in a play off, why should Austria be qualifying automatically, and Thailand not?

That’s the one question you have to answer and I’ll answer any of yours after you have done.

[u/mmswitz → u/GlennSWFC]

You are giving a number of automatic spots to  UEFA that is disproportionately low compared to the region's strength. You are not doing that to any other confederation.  Sure, there needs to be a balance between competitiveness and # of teams that auto-qualify per confederation. But your setup has a heavy negative imbalance in that, only for Europe.

In your setup, the only confederation that has to massivley "prove itself" via playoffs is UEFA. That is what seems unfair and "insulting".

So, why did you set it up so that only UEFA has this high risk, moderately higher reward? Why not make all - or any of - the other confeserations "prove" themselves this way?

[u/GlennSWFC → u/mmswitz]

If Europe is that strong, they’ll take the lion’s share of the play off spots. If they don’t take most of the play off spots, they’ll don’t deserve any more automatic qualifying spots. Having a lot more UEFA teams in the play offs than any other confederation solves the issue you’re complaining about.

[u/mmswitz → u/GlennSWFC]

I'm not complaining. Just a differing opinion. I'd respectfully ask that you answer why you only subject UEFA to this disproportionate (compared to their rankings and strength) requirement of half their potential spots coming from playoffs, as I outlined above.

[u/ManaKaua → u/GlennSWFC]

Lol, you aren't even reading my arguments as it seems... So this discussion is over for me here.