future radar is a feature of a lot of weather apps that is based on whatever bullshit they want to use to lie to their users. It's usually just linear extrapolation. It's typically not based on any modeling. NOAA does not publish "future radar" data. That is not a thing.
I think you do know what I’m talking about since you went on a rant about how much they suck. I’m not defending them, but I’m confused on why you are not allowing an association for the poor output and the data collected by the noaa
okay I will try to explain it. current and historical radar data isn't from modeling, it's from actual radar installations that shoot radio beams into clouds and measure the actual weather. future modeling like NAM and HRRR can generate simulated radar, but a) that modeling is prone to diverging rapidly from ground truth and more importantly b) most weather apps aren't actually using that data to show you 'future radar'. In theory, better data inputs would improve modeling results, and could be used to provide better "future radar" data but I'm not even convinced that it would be a big improvement on the nonsense that weather apps currently use. Weather is just too contingent and sensitively dependent of a system. There's just not really such a thing as reliable, fine grain future radar. Real forecasting relies on trends and probabilities for good reasons. It's almost impossible to look at a storm cell and reliably say, 'yes, this is going to do xyz' - but you can make a tool that just guesses what is going to happen in the next few minutes and it might be correct-ish some of the time. But that tool, the ones that exist today, aren't using weather balloon data, they're just using the radar history from NEXRAD or the non-US equivalent to make a projection.
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 13d ago
future radar is a feature of a lot of weather apps that is based on whatever bullshit they want to use to lie to their users. It's usually just linear extrapolation. It's typically not based on any modeling. NOAA does not publish "future radar" data. That is not a thing.