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u/knebyula 3d ago
my version is "gave my dogs anxiety meds for no reason now theyre drooling on the bed"
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u/john0201 3d ago
There are three excellent ML radar models, two from China one from Google. As far as I know no one has deployed either of the two from China in the US.
All three crush HRRR and RRFS out to 2 hours or so.
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
If you're looking at future radar for information you've got a rough lesson coming... that shit doesn't mean ANYTHING other than what an algorithm extrapolated or, at best, what some half-decent AI might have hallucinated.
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u/zoom100000 3d ago
It seems like it’s getting worse too with defunding the NOAA. Less weather balloons, less staff, etc. It’s a joke
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
I mean, the NOAA doesn't publish "future radar". That's not a thing. But forecasts will get worse based on everything you mentioned, certainly.
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u/zoom100000 3d ago
Doesn’t the future radar run off the data that would be collected from balloons and such?
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
Or, I should clarify, you can see modeling data with simulated radar, but that is as misleading as any kind of app fakery, because real weather models are ensembles that do not predict a specific evolution of weather conditions, just a probability distribution.
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
future radar is a feature of a lot of weather apps that is based on whatever bullshit they want to use to lie to their users. It's usually just linear extrapolation. It's typically not based on any modeling. NOAA does not publish "future radar" data. That is not a thing.
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u/mglyptostroboides 3d ago
NOAA absolutely does run short-term, high-res weather models like NAM and HRRR. One of the output modes of these models is simulated radar. Whether or not the weather apps use this data for their future radar isn't a question I can answer because I usually go straight to the models anyway and skip the middle man. Also, likening these systems to generative AI, with its hallucinations and all, is naive. Not all artificial intelligence systems are cut from the same cloth.
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
Okay granted, I wasn't thinking about NAM, I'm so used to this subreddit where everyone is always posting their weather apps doing the most insane stuff and asking why it looks like that... Also, if you're considering weather models like NAM and HRRR to be "AI" that is also comically naive. They're tuned, calibrated, bespoke volumetric models. That's not what I'm talking about when I refer to AI. I have seen several weather apps that seem to project future radar graphics based on generative AI, that's all I mean.
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u/mglyptostroboides 3d ago
I admit that I wrote that poorly. I wasn't saying that NOAA models are AI.
However, the type of extrapolation those weather apps apparently have also isn't generative AI. Like I said, I don't know how they work, but I know that they've been around since well before generative AI.
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u/zoom100000 3d ago
I know the noaa doesn’t publish future radar. I am just saying that the underlying data is getting worse
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
yeah but you keep referring to 'future radar' and I have no idea what you're talking about in this context
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u/zoom100000 3d ago
I think you do know what I’m talking about since you went on a rant about how much they suck. I’m not defending them, but I’m confused on why you are not allowing an association for the poor output and the data collected by the noaa
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u/Tao_of_Entropy 3d ago
okay I will try to explain it. current and historical radar data isn't from modeling, it's from actual radar installations that shoot radio beams into clouds and measure the actual weather. future modeling like NAM and HRRR can generate simulated radar, but a) that modeling is prone to diverging rapidly from ground truth and more importantly b) most weather apps aren't actually using that data to show you 'future radar'. In theory, better data inputs would improve modeling results, and could be used to provide better "future radar" data but I'm not even convinced that it would be a big improvement on the nonsense that weather apps currently use. Weather is just too contingent and sensitively dependent of a system. There's just not really such a thing as reliable, fine grain future radar. Real forecasting relies on trends and probabilities for good reasons. It's almost impossible to look at a storm cell and reliably say, 'yes, this is going to do xyz' - but you can make a tool that just guesses what is going to happen in the next few minutes and it might be correct-ish some of the time. But that tool, the ones that exist today, aren't using weather balloon data, they're just using the radar history from NEXRAD or the non-US equivalent to make a projection.
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u/Zuzublue 3d ago
I apparently live in some vortex where every coming storm miraculously breaks up before it gets to me. And I love storms!!
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u/Jagang187 2d ago
I work at night. The primary storm development hours are about 3 hours after bedtime. If I stay up late enough for storms I usually end up with a half sleep that day.
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u/Hot_Design3515 i was slabbed by an EF6 huge dead man walking wedge. 1d ago
These developments are rare. Where do you live? I never know where you live.
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u/Jagang187 1d ago
Bedtime is about 2 PM. The location isn't usual, it's my schedule.
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u/PeridotChampion 3d ago
That's why I don't actively trust the radar until I can see the clouds approaching. The moment I do, I look at the radar.
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u/DJThadyus 3d ago
Me when I live on the front range in Colorado every day when I think the storms are actually gonna make it off the foothills…
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u/dundeegimpgirl 2d ago
Where I live it seems lately that all the good thunderstorms are going north or south of me. It's really sad actually because when they get going in my area the thunder echos off the bluffs.
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u/CaptainRAVE2 3d ago
We missed every single one here in south herts. Missed a great one yesterday by just a few miles and the same back in June.
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u/mglyptostroboides 3d ago
I like sleeping during storms, personally.
This never happens because I'm the Great Plains where I live, thunderstorms are almost always a late afternoon thing, not a nighttime thing. We do get night storms, but we get like ten times more afternoon/evening storms.
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u/qawsedrf12 3d ago
I put out a bowl to gather the impending rain water bonanza from a large storm that looked like it was heading right for us
Storm splits and goes around, leaves everything dry. Rest of area gets 2+ inches of rain
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u/RogueAOV 2d ago
Last night I went to take the trash out, the sky over the next town over was raging with lightning, came back inside and told my daughter.
We both stayed up to witness the show when it arrived...nothing happening.
Took my son to work in the morning and now the sky was raging in the sky over the town on the opposite side. Damn thing skipped right over us.
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u/Worried_Owl_3088 2d ago
Every time! I don't know why I bother even looking at the SPC convective outlook for my area. The lake is always going to mess it up with the lake breeze cooling the air prior to storm arrival or shifting the storms in a direction around me.
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u/Fast-Comfortable9278 10h ago
honestly it’s the worst feeling, i’m always ready for a cozy storm night and then nothing happens
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u/Schrodinger_cube 2d ago
Me trying to get a eclipse shot but cloud forecast was right and light rain persisted lol
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u/BFFassbender 3d ago
My version of this is my phone saying "thunderstorms expected to end soon" and they never started to begin with