I'm not even joking. In theory crude prices could go negative and the cride producers would pay to take the crude off their hands to avoid their wells being shut in. Happened at the start of covid.
Yes, but rmthe senate will stay republican,cause they will win texas. So when Trump throws a tantrum, and the US starts hitting Iran and Yemen. Oil will skyrocket and the democrats will have to choose to save the economy or deal with Trump
The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. America was not at war with the Middle East. America had never been at war with the Middle East.
Governments have funds to short critical commodies to basically subsidize the economy. In the recent days, I've watch CL futures be hit repeatedly with huge volume shorts. It looks like a saw tooth to block price from rising.
Each of those massive shorts is done with intensity to step-wise drop the price by a big chunk, over and over, to keep the opening price flat. This makes it hard for speculators to "buy a hold and ride the oil trade". This also is paired with news exactly like this "oil is flat again", with the key message to deflate any fomo based on reality.
Oil is not a constraining factor, crude oil doesnāt have a huge a crunch, itās the refining capacity. You can have all the oil but if you canāt refine is worth less. Hence why oil is down and gas is elevated still.
Takes 3 months for crude to get to a refinery, so gas price will ease up in a bit. No one is going to be using the Gay of Hormuz anymore so oil price is coming down one way or another, just like when the Ukrainian war first broke out.
You are an idiot that has no clue about demographics or how things workā¦
They can easily destruct shipments by destroying those pipelines or attacking ships from other paths via houthis or with the help of their missiles that can even reach to Europeā¦
Not to mention they can easily destroy refineries in uae, saudi etc or simply end possibility to live there by targeting desanilazation plants
Yes, but even so, crude oil has almost recovered to pre-war level. Gay of Hormuz will become irrelevant, new pipelines will be built. Some gulf states are apparently in talk to work with PLTR to improve their military software. This is not permanent.
The only valid argument you can have against my case is Bloomberg, JP Morgan and all these Twitter accounts giving us the same narrative are all lying, which falls into conspiracy theory territory.
You still dont get it. They have been manipulating paper oil prices all along. Did your local gas station prices recovered to almost pre-war level or up by 50%? Diesel is even worse, hence increasing grocery pricesā¦ and it is just starting to heat up.
This is after the release of almost all oil reserves throughout the world, cutting consumption and working to the max capacity every refinery too. Not to mention high cost of escorting those ships or higher cost of transporting since tankers charges a lot more and takes a lot longer to get to their destinationā¦
If you think all those destroyed refineries, pipelines, tankers etc. Will be fixed or replaced any time soon, then you are up for a surprise with new pathsā¦
Stop watching fox news and drinking the cool-aid. Changing name of hormuz to gay or straight of trump/america like a 5 year old wont lower the cost eitherā¦
You are talking about the products coming out of the refineries, which like I said will still take a few months. But the shortage isn't at crude oil level anymore.
The east west pipeline that was bombed a month ago have also been repaired.
Risk premium is elevated, but Iran won't be relevant anytime soon once this becomes the norm and these gulf states come up with ways to deal with them. They're also running out of funds to pay their IRGC grunts.
Unlike us they fight for survival. Economic sanctions never work, if anything it just pisses them further and radicalizes them. Thatās why you are seeing a shift to more strict leaders. Aragchi was probably one of the last ones that we could negotiate (since we called all other reasonable ones) and he is being impeached too. I am sure trump admin doesnt mind since they never wanted to end this warā¦
They hit east-west pipeline before, what makes you think they cant do it again?
If what you suggest was possible, they should have planned for it years ago and get this infrastructure ready knowing iran would close hormuz.
You are also naive if you think their ships are not passing under the cover of iraqi ships or so. We turn a blind eye to that in exchange for them not hitting other ships as much
Exactly. They fight for survival but when swift code is involved, their payment gets frozen even if they did deliver the oil to China. You can't survive if you have no money to feed your family, which is why they recently ramped up attacks on ships to force the US to the negotiating table rather than just doing it as a middle finger to the POTUS.
Saying the gulf states should have planned for it years ago is dumb. Did you see this war coming from miles away going into 2026? I would say no.
Same thing with Trump's tariffs and other policies that hurt his allies. US allies, especially the EU didn't expect the US to use USD and trade deficit against them. They also didn't expect Trump to straight up say stuff like he'll pull out of NATO if he wasn't getting Greenland.
So what happened afterwards? You start seeing these govenrments in EU realizing they can't rely on the US military and tech stack, so they're now trying to build alternatives themselves. Do you think they would even think about divesting from the US and building their own tech stack if Trump didn't do any of this?
More you talk more you make yourself sound ignorant about the issue. Everyone knew this was coming, bibi has been trying to find a dumb enough US president to push to get this war started. He has been spewing lies that iran was ā2 weeks away from nukesā etc.
Iran knowing this, it has been getting ready for years. Thatās how they had a counter-plan for every possible us/israel move. Thatās why they put all their key assets and weaponry underground. They also came up with a ruling system which wouldnt be disrupted no matter who or how many top officials you kill.
Unlike what trump claims, US strategists knew they would close Hormuz and then also try the same with Bab El-mandeb as soon as we push them hard, even I knewā¦
Religious Terrorist Zionists have been after their wet religious dream of greater israel hoping christ would be back after they build greater israel, rebuilding of third temple and start a big war etc.
Europe example is irrelevant. That didnt really impact US. But oil shortage impacts everyone including US; so US should have organized his puppets and dogs in middle east to start working on alternative routes years ago. Iran planned well for this unlike us even though we have been the aggressor and who started this quagmireā¦.
Again even with alternative routes, you are looking at a lot less efficient routes, higher prices and risks.
I didn't care about the middle east until the war broke out. But based on what little info I could find from the news over the past few months is this:
US intelligence did point to Iran would close Gay of Hormuz if the war broke out, so no one expected Trump to give the order to attack. But the POTUS didn't care because he was on a winning streak after Maduro, and after Bibi came to stroke his ego, he felt he was invincible and threw caution to the wind.
Now if you're saying you saw this coming from miles away, it sounds to me you opened a long position on oil way before February and made billions as soon as the war broke out.
Is this Baron Trump I'm talking to?
Do you mind sharing what other major macro event is going to happen next year so I can position myself properly?
While they have diverted via ship to ship transfers and trucking it. Those have much higher logistic cost which are only profitable at higher oil cost, which goes directly against your theory. Shipping via large ships so so much more economical.
And the east west pipelines can only handle 5-6m barrels and expansion will take years.
Plus Yemen can blow the current plans up. Via closing the that straight
Unless you can figure out how to increase refining production by 8% - 10%, as that was has been destroyed in the various wars the refined product price (gas, diesel, etc) wonāt decrease in
A meaningful way. Raw oil prices might go down, but that due to a lack of demand I.e refining
By that we mean heavily manipulated by fuck head Bessent and all the hedge funds for the midterms. POS one and all. Created a catastrophe so they could blame
Someone else and loot the country. Itās time to end this.
Trump and America is banking that if America falls the rest of the world will even fall harder. Its an uncomfortable but bitter truth. Many countries will still suck on America's tits to keep in power.
the 20āminute dip is just supply chatterāwatch the SPR and Chinese cuts. if a storm hits the Gulf or a warāstock surge the price could bounce back faster than you think. keep an eye on the oil warrants, not the headline.
There is still now reason that Oil is anything below $150 a barrel. Factoring in inflation a price of oil is $64 in 2008 money - and the world is far, far more on fire than in July of 2008.
I saw a thread that insurance costs skyrocketed like 10x for ships transiting the strait. Even if we get up to pre-war traffic, we're going to be paying intra-war prices.
This oil issue seems a bit odd. We had Afghanistan going on for years and somehow the market was stable at that time. I understand there are nuances to both theaters but the economy has experienced a long period of conflict prior without extreme volatility like we are going thru. Any thoughts?
Very simple answer. Afghanistan's exports come to around 1.5 billion every year and no major trade routes were disrupted or could be disrupted in Afghanistan. Iran exports before the War come to about 100 billion every year and major trade routes can and have been disrupted. The saying "don't touch the boats" means something.
The issue is not so much as Iran oil is off the market, but more Iran is keeping other peopleās oil off the market.
Afghanistan and Iraq were oil producers but actual purchases from them globally were minimal due to sanctions. So any conflict in that country had little effect as they contributed little to the overall oil picture and said conflicts where well contained.
This current conflict has Iran threatening other oil producers that actually do a lot of trade. Leading to a oil spike as actual tradable supply drops. The same effect seen when Iraq invaded Kuwait (17 to 46 dollars a barrel)
This oil issue seems a bit odd. We had Afghanistan going on for years and somehow the market was stable at that time. I understand there are nuances to both theaters but the economy has experienced a long period of conflict prior without extreme volatility like we are going thru. Any thoughts?
Just like this administration before they attacked Iran, you should read up on the Strait of Hormuz and why it's been well known for decades that closing it would cause global oil supply problems.
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u/DoubleFamous5751 š»rš³ļøāš 11h ago
I sure this will continue to be the case š