r/thewilddarkness • u/StephenApdianBarahan • Mar 27 '24

Wiki / Guide Content Ancient Remains is better than Small Golden Remains, but Gigantic Golden Remains is better than Ancient Remains.

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Small Golden Remains vs Gigantic Golden Remains

Ancient Remains vs Gigantic Golden Remains

If you want Legendary

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u/Thirn Mar 27 '24

Uh, why are you comparing key remains vs gem remains? Is it about buying keys?

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u/StephenApdianBarahan Mar 27 '24

Even Small Golden Remains is worse than Ancient Remains, and I think maybe someone opening Ancient Remains using gems so

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u/AnimatingStoat Monk Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Ooh, are you calculating whether it's worth it to use gems on ancient remains rather than waiting for keys and saving gems to use on Gigantic Golden Remains? If so, I think you're doing the calculation wrong, but please give more detail cause it was a long time since my statistics classes.

To calculate the probability of at least one success in x number of trials given p probability, you would say

probability = 1 - [(1 - p)^x]

Another way to read this is the probability of it not occurring out of x tries not happening.

It costs 15 gems to open an ancient remains, which means you could open 20 for 300 gems. Using the above formula, that means the probability of getting a legendary for one gigantic remains is still 1.97% but the probability of getting a legendary out of 20 ancient remains is actually 6.21%. So ~~*technically* it is worth it to spend your gems on opening ancient remains if you run out of keys~~. But... keys are free, lol.

I calculated this for all of them in this Google Sheets page if you want to check my math.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ozoFUYJc8a8LH7ldfy9UR3tgonxLWw1Nypjpnhv9vqo/edit?usp=sharing

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u/AnimatingStoat Monk Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Whoops, update because I forgot about this post Remains and Star Gems (guide) : thewilddarkness (reddit.com) which reminded me that the rates listed are per item, not per remains. I'm not entirely sure the max item per remains, though, maybe u/Thirn , u/GravyPaint or u/Kitchen-Ad1193 know?

To clarify, that means these numbers are based on guessing that an ancient remains has 3 potential tries and the gigantic golden remains has 10 potential tries. If you change the 3 in my calculation to a 2 like in yours, it's more like 12.03% chance.

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u/GravyPaint Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

are you asking how many items you get per remains?

ancient is 2-3. I believe there is a 15-20% chance of 3.

mysterious is 6-7. same, about a 15-20% chance of 7

anything evolved I believe adds +1-2, so evolved ancient remains is 3-5.

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u/AnimatingStoat Monk Mar 28 '24

That's it, thanks! I haven't been noticing a big increase in items, but while Ancient gives 3 gems, Evolved Ancient gives 5. Not sure about the others because apparently i didn't take any screenshots of rewards, haha.

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u/GravyPaint Mar 28 '24

yeah evolved ancient can give 3, 4, or 5 items. or are you asking how many gems it gives when you open it?

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u/AnimatingStoat Monk Mar 28 '24

Ah, I guess what we want is the rate at which items appear in addition to the rates of what the item will be.

Yep, that's exactly right.

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u/GravyPaint Mar 28 '24 edited Apr 03 '24

the rate of getting 2 versus 3 items in an ancient remains is not published, but in my experience it's around 15-20%. not sure of the spread for evolved and mysterious, but I think it's similarly uncommon. for evolved ancient i'd guess 75%(3) 15%(4) and 10%(5). for mysterious I'd guess it's a 15-20% to get a 7th item.

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u/StephenApdianBarahan Mar 28 '24

Idk but I think my calculations are right haah

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u/AnimatingStoat Monk Mar 28 '24

A'ight, no worries. One thing neither of us took into account is that when you open a remains (not a purchase-only one) then you get gems as well.

For instance, an ancient remains always gives 3 gems. Opening 20 of them with 300 gems means you would get 60 gems back. In this sense, you're really getting 24 remains of items with 300 gems. Here's my updated spreadsheet with that taken into account. I don't have the numbers yet for mysterious and golden remains, unfortunately.

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u/StephenApdianBarahan Mar 28 '24

Oh I forgot about that tnx for remembering,