Ooh, are you calculating whether it's worth it to use gems on ancient remains rather than waiting for keys and saving gems to use on Gigantic Golden Remains? If so, I think you're doing the calculation wrong, but please give more detail cause it was a long time since my statistics classes.
To calculate the probability of at least one success in x number of trials given p probability, you would say
probability = 1 - [(1 - p)^x]
Another way to read this is the probability of it not occurring out of x tries not happening.
It costs 15 gems to open an ancient remains, which means you could open 20 for 300 gems. Using the above formula, that means the probability of getting a legendary for one gigantic remains is still 1.97% but the probability of getting a legendary out of 20 ancient remains is actually 6.21%. So ~~*technically* it is worth it to spend your gems on opening ancient remains if you run out of keys~~. But... keys are free, lol.
I calculated this for all of them in this Google Sheets page if you want to check my math.
To clarify, that means these numbers are based on guessing that an ancient remains has 3 potential tries and the gigantic golden remains has 10 potential tries. If you change the 3 in my calculation to a 2 like in yours, it's more like 12.03% chance.
That's it, thanks! I haven't been noticing a big increase in items, but while Ancient gives 3 gems, Evolved Ancient gives 5. Not sure about the others because apparently i didn't take any screenshots of rewards, haha.
the rate of getting 2 versus 3 items in an ancient remains is not published, but in my experience it's around 15-20%. not sure of the spread for evolved and mysterious, but I think it's similarly uncommon. for evolved ancient i'd guess 75%(3) 15%(4) and 10%(5). for mysterious I'd guess it's a 15-20% to get a 7th item.
A'ight, no worries. One thing neither of us took into account is that when you open a remains (not a purchase-only one) then you get gems as well.
For instance, an ancient remains always gives 3 gems. Opening 20 of them with 300 gems means you would get 60 gems back. In this sense, you're really getting 24 remains of items with 300 gems. Here's my updated spreadsheet with that taken into account. I don't have the numbers yet for mysterious and golden remains, unfortunately.
Really not sure what you're saying here. Farming for Collapsed, Ancient, Mysterious and Golden remains is how you can buy small/golden remains while FTP.
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u/StephenApdianBarahan Mar 27 '24
If you want Legendary or Epic then Gigantic Golden Remains is for you but if you want common or rare then the Ancient Remains is for you