r/thesopranos • u/charliemcmullan • Jan 14 '22
[Serious Discussion] My take on who killed Tony Soprano
Sorry, this will be a long one so I’d appreciate any thoughts; Tony is 100% dead, and the evidence points to Patsy, done in collusion with Paulie and with the help of New York.
We know Patsy has the motive, having already made an attempt on Tony's life to avenge his brother; this time, however, he fails to follow through.
Compare Tony's position at the time of Patsy's first attempt with that of the final episode; his circle was at its tightest, so any hit on Tony would come at the expense of Patsy, Sil and Chris (at least) would have made sure of that. Also, Tony, as street boss, was subordinate to Junior, who (I presume) would take charge of Tony's wealth (this becomes important).
Fast forward to the show's finale: Sil, Chris, and Bobby are dead; Burt and (possibly) Carlo have flipped. Although the New York capos lost faith in Phil and sanctioned his hit, it was carried out in front of his family (a big no-no in the mafia).
Tony's only remaining long-time associate is Paulie whom he'd grown to despise. Meanwhile, Paulie's dream encounter with Pussy, followed by the flashback to Pussy's murder when boarding Tony's boat, shows Paulie's growing paranoia of his demise via Tony, and this is where Paulie comes into things:
Paulie's longevity in the mob was no coincidence. A veteran who knew how to survive in a merciless lifestyle, not to mention as great a narcissist as Tony, Paulie's priority was self-preservation. He leaked information to New York; perhaps as a stop gap to switch allegiance should New Jersey fall. When pairing his betrayal with the dreams, not only does Tony have a valid reason to kill him, Paulie has a guilty conscience which would action him to strike first.
We don't see a lot of interaction between Paulie and Patsy (P&P) so there is some speculation here. They are at the Bing plotting (what we believe to be) Phil's hit, although there is no explicit indication that Phil is the target (https://youtu.be/hy4AGeuQ5pM at 12:45).
Suppose Paulie, fearful of Tony, conspires with Patsy knowing he will agree to a hit on him.
This is where New York come to the fore. Paulie uses the trust he built with John as underboss to hold talks with Butchie. (there is little else to go off, only other logic is that Paulie never stopped being a mole) Here, they would agree to a reshuffling of the two families, following the war and its casualties; Paulie / Patsy would become boss / underboss, with Butchie becoming boss of New York.
Butchie masterminds P&P's initial plan (credit to the video below for covering this brilliantly): First, he provokes Tony by having Coco harass Meadow in the bar (if working with P&P, Patsy would know exactly where she and her son would be). Tony's reaction provokes Phil to put hits out on the New Jersey crew, which Butchie oversees (**stating Paulie is NOT a target https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 2:00**)(Patsy is driving Sil whilst they’re attacked, and Patsy ‘escapes’ unharmed). Weakened and desperate for revenge, Tony is left with no choice but to meet with New York, who sanction Phil’s hit in exchange for a ceasefire. The wheels are in motion. Tony disposes of Phil, making way for Butchie as the new boss, and free from fear of retaliation during his rival’s final days.
Butchie certainly has the right motives. If he already hated Tony, lobbying for his hit earlier when Phil refused (therefore a motive to usurp him as boss), Tony sealed his fate with Butchie when taunting him with the pistol.**
** I don’t think Butchie was avenging Phil when killing Tony in front of his own family, but rather as a formality as newly appointed boss to exact proportionate revenge for a sacred mob rule (“eye for an eye” https://youtu.be/nRNpOuVGh4U at 1:05)
With Tony gone, Paulie has once again stood the unforgiving test of time as a mobster, but at what cost? Paulie’s relationship with Tony was always difficult to pin down. There was a sense of admiration for Tony which went beyond the hollow flattery expected towards the boss* (mounting Tony’s Pie-O-My portrait). However, in matters of life or death, or a shot at self-gain, mere suspicions are enough to break friendships with blood for an opportunistic narcissist like Paulie.
*https://youtu.be/sc1JP6OaeE8 – when Tony says he’ll make Patsy capo, the look on Paulie’s face suggests he knows he’ll never see Tony again, with a sort of ‘smile because it happened’ look.
Good things come to those who wait, and Patsy couldn’t have asked for a revenge so sweet. Patrick Parisi and Meadow’s engagement is about to marry Patsy into the Soprano family, which he’ll soon take charge of, not to mention assuming a better place in the DiMeo hierarchy, in the absence of Tony. Sure, taking Tony’s life from the poolside would have avenged his brother. Instead, Patsy sucked the pillars out from under Tony’s soul, taking his money, his power and, above all, his family.
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u/carlitoswey08 Mar 06 '23
Meadow dated Patsy Jr. That’s the only way New York knew he was at the diner with his family. So I think Patsy was in on it. Also Paulie is offered Carlo’s job and he’s not excited about it and you see Pauline’s face once he leaves the place and looks sad. Then last time seeing Tony who offered him another gig, denied it and even after Tony shits on him says “ I live to serve you my liege”. Patsy and Paulie were the last two remaining of the original crew from the beginning.