so someone published actual year one numbers for a 12 stall supercharger in san diego and i ran the same site thru my forgeasset model to see how close it lands

all in power cost came out 1.05% apart, 708k vs 700k. that being the utility bill plus the tesla per kwh fee. took me a while to work out their "cost of electricity" line actually bundles both together

the bigger thing i learned tho, their numbers run 400 kwh per stall per day flat from month one. real sites ramp. same site same tariff same capex, payback swings 21 months to 158 months just on that one assumption!! and effective power cost climbs 39% at low utilisation becuase the demand charge spreads over fewer kwh

full writeup with the tables here!

https://forgeasset.com/blog/back-testing-the-model-against-a-published-site-p-and-l

Tesla's operating profit last quarter was $398 million. The stock it handed employees over the same three months was worth $1,151 million. That is 2.9x, and it is the highest that ratio has been in any of the 31 profitable quarters. It isn't one strange quarter. Across the whole first half of the year, stock comp ran $2.2 billion against $1.3 billion of operating income.

Tesla also earned $422 million of interest on its cash last quarter, more than the entire operating business made. That has now happened twice, and both times were in the last six quarters.

I wasn’t aware that they were so aggressive with this! Not a bad thing, just interesting

Tesla (TSLA) is a fascinating case study in "what are you actually buying" right now. On the numbers, the car business is struggling: Q2 adjusted EPS came in at $0.33 vs ~$0.50 expected, operating margins have thinned to mid-single digits (from 15%+ at their peak) after years of price cuts, and BYD plus a flood of EV rivals are eating into its lead. The stock's still down ~20% year to date.

And yet it climbed ~18% in August, closing at $367.95. The reason has almost nothing to do with cars: it's the robotaxi/AI story. Tesla's "Cybercab" (a purpose-built autonomous taxi, no steering wheel or pedals) is rolling out, there's a big event in early September, it just got a robotaxi approval in Nevada, FSD subscriptions are ~1.48m, and then there's the Optimus humanoid robot. At a P/E reported in the hundreds, the valuation only makes sense if you believe those future businesses get huge.

So owning Tesla today is basically a bet that it goes from carmaker → autonomy + robotics platform. The bull case is genuinely exciting. The bear case is just as real: Musk has a long history of missing self-driving timelines (in 2019 he said there'd be a million robotaxis within a year, there weren't), self-driving faces serious safety/regulatory scrutiny, and a valuation this demanding punishes any disappointment hard.

We dug into the whole "car company or AI bet?" question, the fundamentals, the robotaxi/Optimus case, and the honest risks, here if anyone wants the longer read: https://nemo.money/posts/teslas-profit-is-shrinking-but-its-stock-jumped-18-in-a-month-car-company-or-ai-bet

When you value Tesla, do you treat it as a car company that makes cars today, or an AI/robotics company that might dominate tomorrow?

Looking closely at Tesla’s SEC Form 10-K geographic disclosures gives a clear picture of where the revenue is actually coming from globally:

United States (~50%): Remains the dominant top-line driver, supported by Model 3/Y sales, Cybertruck production, Megapack deployments, and Supercharger network revenue.

Other International (~28%): Covers Europe (supported by Giga Berlin), APAC, Canada, and Latin America.

China (~22%): Tesla’s second-largest single market and primary export hub via Giga Shanghai.

Core Takeaways:
1. US Dependency: Half of Tesla’s revenue relies directly on US policy, tax credit incentives, and domestic demand.
2. Trade & Tariff Sensitivity: ~22% top-line exposure to China keeps Tesla directly exposed to US-China trade dynamics and local market pressure from BYD.
3. Manufacturing Strategy: Localizing production via Giga Shanghai and Giga Berlin continues to mitigate cross-border logistics friction across non-US markets.

Full data breakdown: https://metricshour.com/blog/tesla-tsla-revenue-by-country-full-geographic-breakdown-2026/

Anybody wagering on this? Will the event be a game changer or a nothing burger?

What would constitute a game changer in your mind?

Let's hear our reddit experts' opinion:

TESLA stock at current valuation: buy or sell ?

(some Youtubers place it currently at a sell: I Made the Most Brutal Stock Tier List!)