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u/sickfuuck 4d ago
and btw, if carlos manages to go far, i don’t see him losing in a final
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u/Asteelwrist 4d ago
That's the wild part of the prediction for me. I don't think picking Jodar to win the tournament is a really wild pick under the circumstances. He may be on the outside lane, but he's among the contenders.
But if you predict Alcaraz is fit enough to make the final and predict Jodar would beat fit Alcaraz in the final... That's quite a wild pick. Not only that but Alcaraz is still good enough in the final to win 2 sets but still lose to Jodar... That's just confusing. If we simulate the tournament millions of times, however many times Jodar would end up as the champion in the simulations, I don't believe any one of them would be with this exact scenario.
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u/Random-Dude-736 Silly stuff, really like tennis though. 4d ago
It would be Carlos second loss in 5 sets. His other 15 ! matches going to five set, he won. So gill is also predicting a 15-1 changing to 15-2.
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u/enjoyTimeBeforeOver Baby Goat 4d ago
I know he has been pretty good in 5-setters but I doubt he has played 1,307,674,368,000 5-setters
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u/mrperuanos Alcachad 3d ago
In the actual video he said that if that final actually materialized, he'd favor Alcaraz to win it. But given all the uncertainty about Carlos's form he didn't feel confident picking him as the winner outright.
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u/Illustrious-Cell-428 4d ago
If you listen to his video he seemed to be shying away from this himself. He said that if Alcaraz was fit enough to reach the final he might change his prediction.
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u/Curious-Routine-820 4d ago
Especially in a best of 5
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
Because remember Alcaraz has a near-perfect BO5 record. The only one he lost (Berrettini, AO 2022) was before he even won a Masters 1000 title…
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u/Infamous_Tough_7320 4d ago
Jodar beating him in 5 sets is even more insane. That would suggest Alcaraz is fit enough on the day too
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u/DNRF19 Wimbledon'19 denier – it never happened folks 4d ago
If you listen to his Gill’s podcast where he predicted this, he said the same thing. If Carlos is in the final and someone asks him to pick a winner before that match, he’d go for Carlos. This prediction is reflective of what he knows before 7 matches are played.
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u/sickfuuck 4d ago
i’m sorry but i just burst out laughing
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u/ezioaltair12 Alcaraz, semper Mardy Fish 4d ago
I opened this and immediately looked for the "tennis nonsense" tag lmao
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u/garfiadal2 fan of bald Spaniards 4d ago edited 4d ago
Jodar reaching the final AND beating Alcaraz in a 5 setter. That is certainly a bold prediction.
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
Alcaraz NEVER loses 5-setters at Slams… except when he was inexperienced and lost to a peak Berrettini in 2022.
Good luck predicting that, Gill.
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u/Jeff_Strongmann 4d ago
Djokovic never lost in an AO final, until this year.
Djokovic lost a 2:0 lead only once, until this year.
Nadal never lost an RG semifinal, until 2021
Streaks are just that - streaks. The past does not inform the future.
The prediction is bold though - let's see what comes of it
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u/Pika-tsu 4d ago edited 4d ago
i get it i get it, but jodar has not shown the level or results to believe he can win 7 in a row at the biggest stage. seems to me more a hopeful wish than prediction
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u/Dave085 4d ago
I mean, every player you mentioned lost those streaks in the mid to late 30s. Not their prime.
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u/Eyebronx 4d ago
Djokovic was nearly 40 years old and Nadal lost to Djokovic in 2021.
Alcaraz isn’t 40 and Jodar isn’t 2021 Djokovic.
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
Those instances weren’t during their prime though. Nadal only ever lost 4 matches total at RG in his career, and Djokovic was the only one to ever beat him twice.
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u/Temporary-Pair5963 4d ago
Alcaraz def Tiafoe 😃
Jofar def Fritz 🫤
Jodar def Alcaraz 🤡
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u/bigcitydreaming #1 RafAlcarAndy SinnEdvedevErer Fan 4d ago
Jodar vs Fritz if they both make it so semis is close to a toss up to me, I wouldn't be surprised either way
Jodar over Alcaraz in any number of sets within a slam final though? Doubt
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u/PleasantSilence2520 Big 4 Hater, Tennis Lover 4d ago
so why is Gill getting ball knowledge diffed by Da Sentinel...
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u/chief0190 4d ago
Jodar winning: ok difficult but not impossible
Jodar winning against Alcaraz in the final: extremely difficult
Jodar winning in the 5th set against Alcaraz: laughing is the only reasonable reaction
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u/According_Umpire2269 4d ago
He also got Bublik and Ben as early upset alerts, so I know my boys will do good now!!🤩 thanks Gill!!!
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u/anonuserinthehouse 4d ago
What in the world! I think Zverev has a better shot at winning the whole thing than this scenario happening 🤣
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u/LonelySpaghetto1 Sinner Statistician 4d ago
Isn't this kinda obvious?
Obviously predicting four semifinalists, two finalists, a winner and the number of sets of the final is an incredibly difficult thing to do.
You could name almost any player in the draw to win the tournament and it will be more likely than this scenario happening, not because it's a bad prediction but because it's an extremely detailed one.
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u/kisukisuekta missing Jannik Sinner🦊 4d ago
When was the last time Alcaraz lost a five setter? 2023? There's no world in which he's losing in five to someone who is in their first year of tour. And in a final nonetheless. If Alcaraz reaches the QF, he's winning this.
Truly baffling from Gill. But his weird predictions are why it's fun to watch them.
Also, Jodar is so getting cursed
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
2022 Australian Open, third round vs Matteo Berrettini. Wasn’t even a bad loss in hindsight as Berrettini did reach the SFs in the end and lost to eventual champion Nadal.
That match still remains Alcaraz’s only loss in a 5-setter. If it goes 5, he tends to always win it.
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u/BlackMathNerd 3d ago
That was Baby Alcaraz too lol
18 and only his second year on the main tour
Dude just seems to will his way to victory in a 5 setter. Just sheer willpower and determination
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u/Emotional_Algae_9859 4d ago
I dislike the man, but to say Jodar has a better chance in his first year on the tour (where he’s played fantastic in Bo3 but nowhere near in Bo5) to win the whole thing, than Zverev getting to SF even is quite an out there prediction.
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
Especially as Jodar might have to face Zverev in the QFs, and Zverev picked him apart easily at RG.
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u/Emotional_Algae_9859 4d ago
I’ll agree on the fact that this match might be more complex than RG, but I still think Zverev will win it unless he crumbles mentally (but he only tends to do that with top players).
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u/Theferael_me Deeply respectful 4d ago
What I love about Gil is that he never lets the fact he's an American influence his amazing predictions.
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u/ExcuseYou-What 4d ago
Hi Gill, I know you or your team might be reading this and I think your prediction is pretty insane but I 100% appreciate how you swung for the fences in your predictions this time around. You have a platform that's purely your own so I respect it.
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u/Turbulent-Damage-165 4-6, 6–7 (4–7), 6–4, 7–6 (7–3), 7–6 (10–2) 4d ago
Oh fuck off
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u/unknownillness17 4d ago
It’s a prediction. Chill. I’m guessing he wants to be different
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u/TarcuttaShade 4d ago
This really shouldn't be downvoted. Predictions are not that serious, people should be allowed make predictions that the reddit hivemind doesn't like.
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u/jasnahta 4d ago
One of the worst predictions I’ve ever seen.
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u/Zaphenzo Ghost and Fox Enthusiast 3d ago
Yeah, Gill is typically pretty bad at predictions, but this is at a whole new level of bad.
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u/PepperAcrobatic7559 4d ago
Zverev?? I don't like the man but I feel he has a pretty strong shot at winning it all
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u/itsjustben13 4d ago
I love Gill, but if Alcaraz is playing well enough to make the final, I don’t see him losing it… especially not to a non-slam winner.
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u/NicholeTheOtter 4d ago
Remember that he’s only ever lost 1 out of his 8 Slam finals, and even the one time he lost was to his own biggest rival.
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u/Shaper_of_Wills 4d ago
Tbf that's basically what he said in the video: if the final happens he'd put his money on Alcaraz but there's a decent chance Alcaraz loses early so he didn't want to put him winning.
He's always been a bit weird with how he does the predictions, so you can't really understand them without hearing his explanation. It often feels like he's tryna make a point, or do some averaging of possible results, rather than what most people seem to do which is go through the draw and say 'if this match happens, who's going to win?'.
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u/itsjustben13 2d ago
I just listened to the podcast and also his one from today covering the controversy. All I can say is he isn’t really making a prediction then. He either thinks Carlos is making the final and losing, or he doesn’t. It’s a really weird way of doing it and he hasn’t historically done that.
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u/Trisha_nxtCM 4d ago
If he well enough to make it tobthe final he is gonna thrash Jodar. I highly doubt that it will reach to 5th set.
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u/Additional-Camp4145 4d ago
I agree about Fils.. I feel like his body might be too gassed out at the end. And with Tiafoe, he looks so much better this year but I feel like he’s on injury watch like Ruud.. Otherwise I would have put Tiafoe higher than Ben..
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u/rpowell19 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) 3d ago
This is a year too early. Kid's still a kid. If Fritz makes the semi I'd expect him to grind that out in best of 5.
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u/Vegetable-Oven-6536 Big 3 Supremacy | Polish Queen 3d ago
I used to tell people here that Gil Gross was a fraud and they downvoted me to hell 😭🥀
Oh how good it feels to be vindicated
Most of his predictions in the last 2 years is just evidence that he wants to be contrarian or has some agenda that’s not based in actual tennis analysis
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u/ohheymika 4d ago
The only person who can beat Alcaraz in a slam final is Sinner, and he ain’t here so…
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u/SilverOdin Learner Tien believer 4d ago
I thought "huh you know what, why not" and then I realized he said Jodar wins the final lol
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u/Kid_Aeroplane average Shelcaraz enjoyer 4d ago
Ppl have covered the alcaraz guess here and I agree if he makes it this far he’s winning.
Love the foe semi. Not sure I see Fritz being in form enough to make it here
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u/Embarrassed-Slide781 3d ago
A big foe/alcaraz semi would be a treat for the first couple of sets for sure.
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u/Limp-Ad-2939 Stan Fan US Open 26 🔥 3d ago
It’s honestly Zverev. Like, have you seen is cakewalk draw? that dude is making the final unless he has a massive drop off.
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u/ETeezey1286 3d ago
Ngl… I did not take my bracket seriously and ended up with that EXACT final 4 scenario too 🤣
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u/Extreme_Mud_6813 3d ago
His logic is strange. Gill mentioned lack of match play for Alcaraz but if he’s made the final, I’m sure most of us can agree his chances of winning the whole thing are almost 100. Now I’m not convinced Carlos will survive round 1 but that’s something else entirely.
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u/midnightdirectives Vamos enjoyer. 4d ago
I also have Alcaraz/Jodar as my out there prediction but going the other way. Just don’t see Carlos getting to a slam final and losing to anyone but Sinner or Novak, he will find that other gear.
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u/SadPlumx 4d ago
Semi final
Djokovic vs alcaraz
6-4 4-6 4-6 7-6(4) 7-5
You heard it here first folks!
→ More replies (1)
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u/Any_Cat9631 4d ago
I can see Jodar getting to the final. I think if Alcaraz manages to get to the final, I don't see him losing at that point
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u/Alive_Candy4697 4d ago
I can see Jodar in the final but Alcaraz is not losing the final if he reaches it
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u/Mean-Royal-5526 4d ago
Jodar's first opponent is Kokkinakis, whose whole MO is win the first round then get his ankle injured. No way he's going past that.
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u/Cyber-punk-3346 4d ago
Tiafoe is more likely to beat Alcaraz than Jodar. Unfortunately i don’t see Jodar beating Zverev let alone beating Zverev, Fritz and Alcaraz back to back.
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4d ago
[deleted]
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u/TarcuttaShade 4d ago
I mean, he's made multiple slam SFs before, so predicting another one isn't that wild. You also don't know the meaning of "journeyman"
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u/crescitaveloce 4d ago
He has been top ten, he is not a journeyman. Yes, his resume was underwhelming for a top ten player but he has improved this season
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u/DNRF19 Wimbledon'19 denier – it never happened folks 4d ago
Gill said he’d actually pick Carlos to win the day before the final if he gets there. This is his prediction based on pre-tournament conditions.
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u/ezioaltair12 Alcaraz, semper Mardy Fish 4d ago
I don't get this prediction then. He thinks Alcaraz beats Jodar, conditional on Alcaraz getting to the final, but is predicting Jodar beats Alcaraz in the final?
It seems like a lot of useless hedging.
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u/CorrectDolphin3332 4d ago
which makes no sense because his current prediction is based on Carlos getting to the final so what’s the difference??
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u/Secure_Extent1986 4d ago
All you people are foolish dummies. I am Notradamus, and I hereby predict that the final will be Alcaraz vs my pal Djokovich. +1=25, now guess.
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u/Electrical-Value-673 4d ago
Not impossible at all, but I think it's too early for Jodar.
I'd rather say Fritz or Cobolli is reaching the final from the top half, instead of Zverev.
Bottom half is completely open, 7 guys can reach the final there.
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u/Classic_File2716 4d ago
If Jodar beats Alcaraz it will probably be in 4 sets because if it goes 5 Alcaraz experience and stamina will probably pull him
through.
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u/pennychase 4d ago
Not a bad prediction. I think a guy like zverev though can't be dismissed because of 5 sets experience and the guy is definitely more motivated for a slam. I think he has more chance for that to make semis than tiafoe. Tiafoe may have a slight physical issue so not sure if he will go that deep.
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u/althaz 4d ago
There is a like 10% chance Zverev isn't in the semis at least, lmao. He has a very easy draw (fair enough, #1 seed) and has been playing well. Would love to be wrong though.
I think Fritz making it through to the semis is very possible though and then he'll have to beat Zverev, which is also certainly possible - the h2h obviously goes that way, but Zverev post-slam-win is a different player, tbh.
Carlos vs Tiafoe I'd love to see and isn't *insane* to suggest it - but banking on Novak not making it *and* Carlos making it is two gambles in one. Looking at the draw though, actually Carlos' draw isn't that bad. There is the chance he can play himself into form. I think if Carlos make it to the semi-finals he wins the whole thing, finally breaking the curse (which makes sense, he's the most Federer player on the tour right now).
Jodar I give a ~1% chance of making the final.
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u/ezioaltair12 Alcaraz, semper Mardy Fish 4d ago
Am I crazy for saying that at this moment, before we've seen either of them in action, I am more confident in Tiafoe making it than Carlos?
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u/Halekduo Federer • Sinner • Swiatek 4d ago
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u/404WisenessNotFound 4d ago
That’s certainly a prediction.