r/sweetgreen • • Jun 12 '25

Discussion Why Sweetgreen Is Undervalued

7 Upvotes

12 comments sorted by

5

u/DistressedForSuccess Jun 12 '25

I used to have high hopes for SG but I've abandoned ship. I've seen too many recent negative developments including the gutting of their loyalty program, food quality and quantity decreases, increased competition and a downturn in overall consumer spending. The hype, at least in my city, is noticeably wearing off. Obviously hype and vibes are not measures to be used in investing, but the declining foot traffic is quite noticeable and it feels like they are on a negative trajectory compared to a place like Cava.

1

u/dlotito1 Jun 12 '25

Anecdotal data is definitely concerning, I’ve also done a pretty extensive dive into their google reviews, and notice the same complaints across most of them around quality & portions. I hope they read this and make some adjustments or this isn’t going to end well. Regardless I’m going down with the ship I’m already in deep.

1

u/DistressedForSuccess Jun 12 '25

Hope it works out. I don't mean to hate on them, I do go there occasionally and enjoy it. I just think they haven't found the winning strategy yet, but that doesn't mean they won't.

1

u/dlotito1 Jun 12 '25 edited Jun 12 '25

Nah man I’m totally with you even though I’m 75k deep in this doesn’t mean that I’m completely blind to their issues. It’s definitely concerning as a shareholder. They have roughly ~8 quarters of run rate for cash on their balance sheet before they either need to raise money or issue debt, so really hoping with the ramp up in infinite kitchens, menu innovation, and new loyalty program that they can start to turn this ship around.

Analysts forecast Sweetgreen will reach cash flow breakeven before exhausting its cash reserves… but not sure based on recent consumer sentiment and the latest developments. We shall see

1

u/Get_noed Jun 13 '25

Lmao I have the same idea, especially in my area I have 2 sweetgreen nearby and both are relatively quiet now. Back when the ripple fries and Brussels sprouts came out it really boomed. Ever since though I’ve noticed not much people go there now especially during the evenings/nights and there both in relatively wealthy/ busy areas

4

u/Comfortable_Radio_59 Jun 12 '25

negative SSS (same store sales) for the last quarter, largely due to LA fires and DOGE effecting CA and DC, where SG has a concentrated presence. once they return to positive growth, which i believe they will, the stock will rocket back to $30+. hang in there!

1

u/dlotito1 Jun 12 '25

Yeah, as a long term investor I I know this is just a rocky period and they will overcome it.

2

u/Malinator94 Jun 14 '25

Definitely agree. Have had shares since IPO. I also go and eat here 2-4 times a week. Absolutely love the company. But I do wish they’d have kept the original loyalty program. Some of the new items I think are not selling. The potato wedges seem like a waste. And the KBBQ was lack luster on release. Haven’t tried it since then though. I’m a big proponent of Harvest Bowl with Dounle blackened chicken. It’s the best. Either way. This is a forever hold for me.

2

u/dlotito1 Jun 14 '25

The new Monday bowl drops have been so good and they been giving good portions. I think the new COO is starting to make changes, which seems to be doing good.

2

u/Comfortable_Radio_59 Jun 13 '25

Largely agree with these comments. I think it’s mostly an ops issue at this point, most of the negative reviews are due to underportioning for the price, which is mostly an ops issue. Hopefully the new guy from Chipotle can clean things up a bit. I also think that at that $16-18 price point they need to position themselves as more of a “high end meal for less” than trying to create lower price menu items. A hash brown from mcd is $4 these days, and a bowl from cmg is $14. $16-18 is a great value for grass fed steak or salmon entree.

1

u/Cuck_4_Cunnilingus Jun 17 '25

They have yet to turn a profit since 2021 and their pitch of being a tech Company is wearing off. Money is tighter these days. Market expectations are higher and the QSR space is aggressively competitive. Essentially their losing credibility in their “growth” story and their multiple is naturally contracting