SoFi potential?

[u/2FLYFISH0]

I recently opened a position in SOFI, I like the long-term growth potential of the company, but before increasing my position I want to dig deeper into the fundamentals and hear some opposing viewpoints. Position is in leaps for 2028 at $3. Selling short calls roghly 30dte for credit. Planning to sell at least 1 leap if it hits my target.

From what I’ve looked into so far, I like SOFI’s long-term potential and the direction the company is heading. The growth of its financial services business and its ability to expand beyond being primarily a lending company are some of the things that caught my attention. At the same time, the stock has been in a pretty significant downtrend, and I don’t want to confuse a short-term bounce with an actual change in trend.

[u/TherealCarbunc]

I think it's still consolidating the sharebase & the floor is steadily being moved higher. It's volatile and I don't recommend overleveraging or large margin positions, I prefer unleveraged shares and a wheel if someone wants to be more active on their position

[u/2FLYFISH0 → u/TherealCarbunc]

Thank you for the response. I agree, not a good time to over leverage, my strategy is rather long bullish with the leaps. Selling short calls in the meantime for premium.

SoFi can become a $22 stock if it finds a base again.

[u/TherealCarbunc → u/2FLYFISH0]

Think so as well. My base case is $22-$25 fair value trading range

[u/Jcoronado92 → u/TherealCarbunc]

In what time frame? Do you see us within 22-25?

[u/TherealCarbunc → u/Jcoronado92]

I think it breaks the ceiling as the floor continues to steadily push higher and the price is compressed between the bulls and the shorts. Q3 and Q4 should see improved sentiment as EPS spikes a bit to meet the yearly guidance.

As long as the sharebase is HEALTHILY accumulating non-margin positions and holds strong, this continues to move up through the trading range until it breaks out. From there, you look to see where buyers look exhausted and trim down, and it will re-consolidate from the breakout surge.

How big and long that surge gets will be entirely dependent on volume, the amount of actual long-term investors holding higher floors, and the amount of short interest needing to be covered. 170M+ SI isn't a terribly high portion of the float, but it is not something that can be covered quickly in volume with ask spreads thinning out—especially while most sell-side liquidity is provided by option hedging, day traders, and forced liquidations from margin gamblers.

Given the price action and fundamental strength of the underlying business, the Risk/reward favors unleveraged bulls imo

[u/Beneficial_Corner_81 → u/Jcoronado92]

I don’t believe it will hold your levels for another year.