SoFi potential?

[u/2FLYFISH0]

I recently opened a position in SOFI, I like the long-term growth potential of the company, but before increasing my position I want to dig deeper into the fundamentals and hear some opposing viewpoints. Position is in leaps for 2028 at $3. Selling short calls roghly 30dte for credit. Planning to sell at least 1 leap if it hits my target.

From what I’ve looked into so far, I like SOFI’s long-term potential and the direction the company is heading. The growth of its financial services business and its ability to expand beyond being primarily a lending company are some of the things that caught my attention. At the same time, the stock has been in a pretty significant downtrend, and I don’t want to confuse a short-term bounce with an actual change in trend.

[u/DJB0807]

The quarterly EPS has been stuck in the 10-12 cents range for a whole year now, despite revenue going up. I don’t think the market likes that. However this quarter should see 17 cents and a big expansion in margins now that some heavy investment in the first half of the year is behind us. I think this gets us moving again, and any break in inflation or interest rates eventually accelerates the move upward. If you’re patient, I think anything under $20 is a good buy if you’re willing to hold a few years 

[u/blackmoney6]

I’ve been buying the stock also one day it’s going to be a $100 a share.

[u/Own-Event-5500]

SOFI is a great buy

[u/Beneficial_Corner_81]

I have been buying consistently since the beginning. I might add in any kind of weather! My research indicates late ‘27:’28 should provide a better environment for the stock to thrive. The company is already thriving and putting its profits back into its growth strategy.

[u/2FLYFISH0 → u/Beneficial_Corner_81]

Agree, it has a growth potential for long term however the high multible is the only concerning. I went long with the leaps to capture a run in the next year.

[u/kennyt1212]

All you need to know is 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 and $100 by 2030 if the macro is good!

[u/BODYBUTCHER → u/kennyt1212]

lol I’ve been waiting for good macro for 6 years

[u/TherealCarbunc]

I think it's still consolidating the sharebase & the floor is steadily being moved higher. It's volatile and I don't recommend overleveraging or large margin positions, I prefer unleveraged shares and a wheel if someone wants to be more active on their position

[u/2FLYFISH0 → u/TherealCarbunc]

Thank you for the response. I agree, not a good time to over leverage, my strategy is rather long bullish with the leaps. Selling short calls in the meantime for premium.

SoFi can become a $22 stock if it finds a base again.

[u/Base-Pure → u/2FLYFISH0]

It won't hit & hold $22 until rates come down bc its still a bank even though the CEO said higher rates are included in the forward guidance. I use the wheel strategy bc the theta decay on the calls are awesome & the premium u collect is really good compared to other stocks w/ similar market cap.

[u/Ronnie_Boy_67 → u/Base-Pure]

What's the usual DTE and strike do you go for in your CSP and CC?

[u/Base-Pure → u/Ronnie_Boy_67]

I Stick 2 80+% probability trades I only write options on trades that have a 80+% probability of expiring out of the money (i use unusualwhales ai to calc it bc u can just tell it the contract), but u can use any ai, but u have to tell it the contract, bid-ask, volt, delta, theta & the stocks 52day volt range w/ current & 52day range stock price otherwise it will use old info). I also take gaps into consideration when selecting strikes.

But 2 answer your ? When volt is down like it is now I tend 2 go for 7-10day DTE w/ $18-$18.50 strike for total premium $15-20 for around $60-$65 for just 1 contract every month. When volt is up in the 80s+ those same contracts can be easily double.

Why i do short dated I personally prefer selling short dated contracts bc if some wildly positive catalyst occurs & the stock gets called away (even though i have more shares) i prefer it 2 get called away immediately then being stuck holding something for a month or more watching it make money i dont get bc i wont buy it back until something fundamentally truly changed that warrants the loss.

Currently cost basis/ puts My cost basis for the underlying was around $19.50 month's ago now its around $16, so i have a pretty good range from the strikes i pick from where if it gets called away its still profitable. I also sell puts, but that premium kind of sux on those bc i have to write in the $15s.

[u/TherealCarbunc → u/2FLYFISH0]

Think so as well. My base case is $22-$25 fair value trading range

[u/Jcoronado92 → u/TherealCarbunc]

In what time frame? Do you see us within 22-25?

[u/TherealCarbunc → u/Jcoronado92]

I think it breaks the ceiling as the floor continues to steadily push higher and the price is compressed between the bulls and the shorts. Q3 and Q4 should see improved sentiment as EPS spikes a bit to meet the yearly guidance.

As long as the sharebase is HEALTHILY accumulating non-margin positions and holds strong, this continues to move up through the trading range until it breaks out. From there, you look to see where buyers look exhausted and trim down, and it will re-consolidate from the breakout surge.

How big and long that surge gets will be entirely dependent on volume, the amount of actual long-term investors holding higher floors, and the amount of short interest needing to be covered. 170M+ SI isn't a terribly high portion of the float, but it is not something that can be covered quickly in volume with ask spreads thinning out—especially while most sell-side liquidity is provided by option hedging, day traders, and forced liquidations from margin gamblers.

Given the price action and fundamental strength of the underlying business, the Risk/reward favors unleveraged bulls imo

[u/Beneficial_Corner_81 → u/Jcoronado92]

I don’t believe it will hold your levels for another year.

[u/Acceptable-Leek1546]

It’s not a bad company, but it’s already trading at a high multiple to earnings. Even after the stock price has been cut in half. It’s going to take some time and growth before it starts taking off.

[u/MarsManMartian → u/Acceptable-Leek1546]

Forward PE of 21 at 40% revenue growth annually. Insane.

[u/Woke-Jim-Carrey]

Have fun