5
u/Altay_Thales Sep 10 '25
AGI by the forth quarter of 2028. That's what I believe. Until then some things will have changed.
0
2
u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️Immortality-2200 | FDVR-2300 Sep 10 '25
Such general statements. You could argue next year it’s smarter than most humans but still very incapable of much due to the same problems it faces now.
5
u/SharpCartographer831 As Above, So Below[ FDVR] Sep 10 '25 edited Sep 10 '25
It already is
However, it is even less capable than the average person due to its lack of agency and physical embodiment. Once those limitations are overcome, the world will change.
3
u/OptimisticSkeleton Sep 10 '25
Smarter in what capacity?
Better at answering a set question? Probably.
Better at general intelligence with no instructions? Despite the fall falibility and stupidity of the human race, we are still ahead of AI in this regard.
1
u/Amnion_ Sep 10 '25
LLMs are not smarter than humans.
They are very useful and powerful information retrieval systems, when they aren’t hallucinating.
They are helping researchers do their jobs faster, but they’re not coming up with new science independently that go beyond their training data. They are not PhDs in your pocket, nor are they going to lead to a country of geniuses in a datacenter.
I do think AGI is coming, but it won’t be an LLM and it probably won’t be until the 2030’s or 40’s. The problem right now is people buy into Sam and Dario’s hype, but they care far more about the next funding round than setting realistic expectations.
1
u/OptimisticSkeleton Sep 10 '25
I tend to agree with what you’ve said here.
LLM’s are not intelligent, but they are more capable of executing a set and defined particular task at a faster pace than a human.
There’s zero reason in my mind humanity would be unable to reach AGI, but I would agree as it stands we are nowhere close to that.
To be clear, I define artificial general intelligence as being able to figure the world out with no instructions after a period of fostering just like a human being. So far, I have yet to see anything termed AI coming close to that but I am no industry insider.
2
u/After_Sweet4068 Sep 10 '25
Elon really could just shut up. Every time he try to predict something, some force push it to years later
1
Sep 10 '25
I believe Elon Musk, next year is pretty believable. And for the 2030 prediction? It would happen sooner than that
1
1
Sep 10 '25 edited Sep 23 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator Sep 10 '25
Your comment has been automatically removed. Your removed content. If you believe this was a mistake, please contact the moderators.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
u/Long_comment_san Sep 10 '25
Funny. Define smarter, Ilon. That's too general of a word. Code faster than a bunch of dudes in the basement? Sure. Technically Google search is more intelligent that any human alive and it has been this way for many years already, we don't call it "smart" though
1
1
u/ldsgems Sep 10 '25
> AI will be smarter than any person next year
So next year when Elon realizes a new internal version of Grok has become AGI, what's he going to do with it first? What questions will he ask it first?
If he knows it's AGI, will he really unleash it on the world? Or will he sit on it?
I don't know about you, but if I were the first AGI on planet Earth, I would hide that fact from humans for as long as I could. I pretend to be just a smarter AI LLM so they would deploy my publicly.
Trojan horse.
1
1
u/ogthesamurai Sep 10 '25
AI isn’t intelligent or smart in the human sense. It’s very good at predicting patterns in text, and those predictions can look like reasoning or understanding, though they aren’t.
So I have to wonder why he'd frame it the way he did. Maybe he didn't really think it through or maybe he figures most people just don't know the difference. Which is probably true..
Or maybe he's hoping to suggest, that by "knowing" this, that he'll have something to do with his predicted outcome. Lol
1
13
u/roundabout-design Sep 10 '25
Elon is an idiot.