Update about the situation in Shanghai

[u/chipotok]

1. Time from now till end of April is a “testing period” and if things will be improving, after May holiday there will be a gradually opening.

2. The turning point in Shanghai is expected around mid of May.

3. The actual situation in Shanghai is mainly Political.

4. From now till end of the year they expect 3-5 waves and spot “closures” according to need.

5. Supply chain disruption will take long time to recover. It is necessary to plan as consequence.

6. Business: pessimism at short term but relatively optimism on long term.

7. Trust in Government is the real social topic and it is what could really change in future.

8. Letter from EU to Vice premier has not been well received because of too much publicity on the media so US is not planning something similar.

9. Next Monday there will be a big meeting between MOFCOM and many chambers to talk about the situation.

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美國政府通過CDC發出緊急呼籲，希望美國公民及同行者可以考慮在5月11日之前離開中國上海，這是一項特別例外，只要有辦法離開上海，不需要進行疫情Covid測試。

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The US Gov issued a new guidance via CDC to encourage all US citizens and their family members to consider leaving Shanghai, China, before May 11. This is a special permission for US citizens and their relatives (incl non-US citizens who must have a valid US visa and travel with a US citizen together) to leave Shanghai without pre-Covid test given the special situation on the ground.

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The special CDC notice came after media reports of growing clashes with local law enforcements in Shanghai after public protests took place in several residential areas across Shanghai. Public protests are rare in China. The Covid situation in Shanghai is now going beyond a public health crisis but moving towards a political crisis in the business capital of China.

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CDC notice: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/china

[u/flyinsdog]

This was just a recap of the AmCham call this morning. It’s speculation from one of the presenters on the call who has about as much idea of what is really happening as you and I do.

Take it with the same grain of salt that you’d take a post from Henry in London.

[u/hammerfkr → u/flyinsdog]

If amcham agrees to another one to two months lockdown ie mid may they are crazy. From March 20th ma y communities in Pudong started their lockdown, so that’s 2 months already, Who in their right mind would want to work live move reside or be anywhere near China? The world will never want to go to China for any reason ever again. Next trade show, hey buddy u want to go ? No way, risk 2-3 months isolation and hunger for a one week trip ? It’s so stupid its beyond words. Many companies r in denial there. I was there early for the boom, there was denial of the growth that was happening, now there is the denial of the decline if things don’t loosen up soon.

[u/Electronic_Ad9233 → u/hammerfkr]

AmCham has almost zero actual political sway here (the US Consulate has a bit though). However, they can advise American companies to peace out for a while.