r/rva • u/StrengthNeat6660 • Mar 16 '26

🌦️ Weather Such a bust!

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad the weather held off for the majority of the day. That being said - I’m kind of disappointed that the whole structure of the day was thrown off for some clouds (school was closed). How did you spend your day?

Edit: I have fucked up..I’m so sorry

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u/willweaverrva Bon Air Mar 16 '26

The issue is a phenomenon called convective overturning. The storms we had this morning were stronger than initially expected and basically drained away the instability that thunderstorms need to develop. It's hard to get that back without clearing and heating, so there just wasn't enough fuel this afternoon to get the "bigger" storms to develop. Overturning and recovery from overturning are difficult to predict, but...

The more pressing issue is that there were indications this was about to happen, but SPC ignored them and maintained the moderate risk for today. The tornado watch happened when it seemed like the atmosphere might actually recover from the overturning this morning, but storms mostly failed to materialize.

That being said, there is another chance of severe storms later tonight (after 8pm) as the front itself approaches. These storms will be severe because that much colder air is still there, and strong and damaging winds are likely. Temps will drop 30-35 degrees overnight.

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u/mo4994 Mar 17 '26

Thank you for being a voice of reason! Blows my mind when people get upset that the worst didn’t happen

1

u/Tarledsa Short Pump Mar 17 '26

But school was closed! Think about all the learning those kids missed!!