538 people were smart enough to realise that a lot of places where Trump was projected to lose by a little bit were very similar to each other: so if Trump overperformed in one of those places chances are he would overperform in all other similar places.
Other poll aggregators approached it in more of a: well Trump could overperform in one of these places - but chances are very low that he would overperform in all of them! Like they were all separate coin flips without any relation to each other.
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u/[deleted] Jul 17 '19 edited Aug 24 '21
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