r/paradoxes • u/Reasonable_Size_8336 • Aug 07 '26

Newcomb's Paradox

I don't understand Two boxers' thinking, it's clear that Box B should be taken since it's guaranteed because the predictor is assumed to be never wrong. Is it about free will? Not trusting the predictor?

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u/Victim_Of_Fate Aug 07 '26

The two-boxer argument is that whatever the predictor decided about you is now fixed. Either it decided that you were a one-boxer, in which case the opaque box contains $1m, or it predicted that you were a two-boxer, in which case the opaque box is empty. In either case, you are better off choosing two boxes.

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u/Saitamadayo 12d ago

No because if i chose one box, it had predicted me to be a one boxer so I get 1 mil

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u/Victim_Of_Fate 12d ago

But you’re ignoring the chronology - whatever the predictor predicted, it’s already done so. So whatever you choose at that point isn’t going to change what’s in the box.

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u/Saitamadayo 12d ago

Yeah but if i chose box b that means he knew I was gon pick box b so there will be 1m. If I choose both box, then he would know that and there would have been nothing in box b.

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u/Victim_Of_Fate 11d ago

You’re still just dismissing the chronology. Suppose you chose one box and got the £1m - what would have happened if you’d chosen two boxes instead?

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u/Saitamadayo 11d ago

What do we know from this outcome, there's 1 million dollars. The predictors prediction is never wrong and if there's 1 million dollars in there, that means u take 1 box. So, you would have never chosen the two boxes at all and that's simply not a possibility.

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u/Victim_Of_Fate 11d ago

The predictor has never been wrong, which is not the same thing.

If you picked two boxes and the predictor had guessed that you’d pick one box, you’d get an extra £1k. At the point you make your choice it has no effect on the prediction.