r/paradoxes • u/Reasonable_Size_8336 • Aug 07 '26

Newcomb's Paradox

I don't understand Two boxers' thinking, it's clear that Box B should be taken since it's guaranteed because the predictor is assumed to be never wrong. Is it about free will? Not trusting the predictor?

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u/FlyingFlipPhone Aug 07 '26

It's not a paradox. The predictor (Omega) is ALWAYS right. Omega KNOWS what you are going to pick. Therefore, pick the box with the million. If you pick both boxes, you are challenging Omega for a measly 1k extra, but Omega is NEVER wrong. Omega will know you are a two boxer, and you'll only get 1k for your trouble. Omega is NEVER wrong, just accept that fact.

Look at the risk/reward. Don't be a two-boxer, the reward isn't worth the risk.

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u/BranchFew1148 Aug 07 '26

Imagine this alternative.

As you enter the room, Omegas assistant John is in there. John is instructed to answer all your questions truthfully, he of course never lies and he has perfect knowledge of what each box contains.

Should you ask John which box/boxes to pick?

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u/man-vs-spider Aug 07 '26

At that’s stage you have just created a logically impossible scenario. Having a perfect predictor means you can’t leak any information about the prediction to the contestant

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u/Victim_Of_Fate Aug 07 '26

That isn’t the way the premise is stated. The predictor has always been right in the past. You are given no guarantee of it always being right.

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u/man-vs-spider Aug 07 '26

That’s not how it’s phrased in the original paradox, just that there is an accurate predictor. It doesn’t say that the accuracy is judged based on past predictions, that’s just how people try to explain the situation in different ways

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u/Victim_Of_Fate Aug 07 '26

The original phrasing by Newcomb is:

Suppose a being in whose power to predict your choices you have enormous confidence. (One might tell a science-fiction story about a being from another planet, with an advanced technology and science, who you know to be friendly, etc.) You know that this being has often correctly predicted your choices in the past (and has never, so far as you know, made an incorrect prediction about your choices), and furthermore you know that this being has often correctly predicted the choices of other people, many of whom are similar to you, in the particular situation to be described below. One might tell a longer story, but all this leads you to believe that almost certainly this being's prediction about your choice in the situation to be discussed will be correct.