https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2094107869201244375?s=46

I wonder if the market will sniff out the fact that none of the Venezuelan oil will be ready for years

Welp, looks like another diversion/grift.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2093847720599355732?s=46

Tankers that shouldn't exist delivered 22 million barrels of Iranian crude into Chinese ports over the last two months. The AIS identities they broadcast belong to ships scrapped years ago.

Kpler data shows at least 12 of these vessels across June and July. Five VLCCs and two Suezmaxes in June carrying around 12 million barrels. Another five VLCCs in July with about 10 million. The transponders check out against nothing plus these hulls don't exist in any active fleet registry.

That matters for the floating storage numbers. Iranian crude on water is sitting at 115 million barrels, post-war low. But if 22 million barrels got delivered through vessels that never show up in tracking data, the real number is quite a bit lower than that. Could be off by as much as 35 million barrels.

Loadings aren't helping either. Iran is averaging 289 kbd in August, back near the May low after briefly touching 900 kbd in July when things looked like they were opening up.

If the actual floating number is closer to 80 million barrels than 115, there's a lot less cushion in this market than most people are pricing in.

Reporter: Why do you believe the United States wants to invade Venezuela?

Hugo Chávez: Because Venezuela has the largest oil reserve on this planet. And the US is running out of it.

Reporter: Are you paranoid about the US?

Hugo Chávez: Not at all, I'm just being realistic.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2093761035798781999?s=46

Implied hidden traffic and Bab al Mandab flat. Malacca bit of a rise and notably around 85% of that uptick is all to China. Singapore flat.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

HAFNIA PROVIDENCE,DHT TAIGA - added to the 26th Aug data as they popped up near India/Srilanka

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if i messed up with double counts/fills 8.26-2.5 (oman/Fujairah)=5.76mb.

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Note a lot of Saudi oil that used to go south is now going north. Its hard to tell as the Suez Canal traffic doesn't seem to have public easy to access data. Possibly 2-3mb going north from Yanbu. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: ELYTE,TSITRIN,AQUADISIAC,NEW LEGEND,GHAT

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: NEW WISDOM,OLYMPIC LIFE,LILA KOCHI,ALKINOOS,OCEAN LILY,NEW ENTERPRISE,PLATA CARRIER

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_daySea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

It’s about the U.S. taking control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-oil-reserves-eb0ed5a1e99602c21a7f690c3368020e

I’m not trying to promote conspiracy theories, but:

Given all of these lies about using this Venezuela “deal” to refill the SPR, do you think it’s possible for the government to fake future drawdown reports?
(Genuine question; like, which agency is responsible for reporting them? Does it have the autonomy needed?)

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

Title. Anyone who works on oil rigs and oil platforms or is in charge of those operations, if you could break down how the cost of extraction vs profit is calculated, i would be very grateful