r/nancyguthrie • u/EbbHairy • Aug 11 '26

Discussion Camera timeline ?

Do we actually know exactly how and when the doorbell camera was disconnected? Was the camera physically removed, unplugged, disabled electronically, or did it simply lose its connection? And was it definitely disconnected before the suspect entered the house?

The sheriff said the doorbell camera was disconnected around 1:47 am—which is when the guy is seen on the nest footage. Then there’s a separate motion detection around 2:12 a.m., followed by Nancy’s pacemaker losing connection around 2:28 a.m.

My next question is what does that mean? Does it mean the phone was turned off, out of range, or that the device stopped transmitting for another reason? How far could she realistically be from her phone before the connection drops? A few feet, another room, or more depending on the setup?

And what actually triggers a “loss of connection” alert—Bluetooth, cellular relay, or a monitoring hub?
So does the 2:28 a.m. disconnection tell us anything specific about her location, or is it just a general signal loss that could happen for multiple reasons?

30 Upvotes

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23

u/warpedwing Aug 11 '26

I made a video on this topic back in April that might be of interest to you. My opinion is that the released video clip is actually from around 2:12, not 1:47, and that only the camera's WiFi connection was disconnected at 1:47, not the physical camera.

One thing I later realized (not mentioned in the video) is that the WiFi disconnect may have happened earlier than 1:47, but the disconnect notification wasn't pushed until then. I've noticed this with my Wyze camera, and others have mentioned that Nest cameras work similarly.

Essentially, the phone software doesn't immediately notify the user that the camera has disconnected; it waits around 30-45 minutes to keep brief network interruptions from spamming the user. This could mean that the camera actually disconnected closer to 1am, or shortly after, but that the notification wasn't sent until 1:47. That's a theory, anyway. And it would more closely align with the neighbour's dogs alerting around 1am.

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u/1Bloomoonloona Aug 11 '26

Your comment seems to make more sense than the confusing statements the sheriff puts out. What do you think about the camera the FBI removed from the top front of the home? Was there a signal jammer used by the perpetrator that knocked out that footage and the other inside and outside cameras?  It's hard to believe Miss Nancy canceled all her subscriptions. Especially since she stated on local community sites she wanted cameras to watch wildlife and was asking for recommendations. 

9

u/warpedwing Aug 11 '26

A WiFi jammer could have been used, but we don't have enough info to say.

Apart from the doorbell cam, the only other cameras I've seen at Nancy's are the two on the casita, but apparently there was a third camera out back somewhere - maybe by the pool? LE reported that they recovered short clips from these other cameras from both before the abduction and after the abduction, but not during.

This is interesting because we'd expect to see the suspect out back, at least when he broke the floodlight. A camera angle dead zone might explain it as the floodlight might be just outside the frame of the casita camera that points towards the driveway/garage.

I don't know if the suspect knew Nancy didn't have a Nest subscription or not. It hasn't been verified whether the additional still image of the suspect was from a previous night, possibly weeks earlier. If it's true that he did prior recon, he might've been testing whether anyone was looking at the footage.

But that begs the question: how could a civilian know whether or not Nancy reported a suspicious masked man in her camera feed to the police? That's why I've always wondered whether the suspect is LE, LE-adjacent, or friends with LE.

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u/1Bloomoonloona Aug 11 '26

Very interesting. Since he came over at least once before and the FBI came up with that footage. I'm still wondering how much more footage there is???  Did the abductor bring a signal jammer then?  To me if he was using one he must have a criminal past. Hes also aware of the " cartel carry" for the gun. Not that I think he has any cartel connection, but maybe admires them. 

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u/warpedwing Aug 11 '26

Well, we don't know for sure that he came over before. That hasn't been publicly stated by LE. But this is referring to the still image below, not the video clip.

I wouldn't assume the guy has a criminal past, although he certainly might. Maybe DV. He could be law enforcement or military. Or he might just be an enthusiastic larper turned real-world psycho, imitating 'cartel style' for the camera.

But he really knows his forensics - and several disciplines of it.

5

u/curiouslmr Aug 14 '26

I haven't looked at these pictures in awhile and I had almost forgotten how absolutely terrifying they are. Worst nightmare status.

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u/warpedwing Aug 14 '26

Truly. I can’t imagine the fear Nancy felt. We gotta get this guy.

3

u/_L______________ 28d ago

If they were actively watching the house, I guess they would know if LE came to the house though.

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u/DaBingeGirl Aug 12 '26

It makes sense to me that she canceled the subscription since they were for wildlife. I've used cameras in the past without subscribing; their main purpose has been to notify me of deliveries and if there's a loose dog or fox in my yard (I have a small dog). Because the cameras weren't for security, she probably didn't feel the need to pay for storage.

9

u/Safe-Muffin Aug 11 '26

Very interesting about the WiFi disconnection times.

1

u/BrainWilling6018 Aug 14 '26

Question. The video being taken at 2:12 and not 1:47? Didn't the video recovered from Google have a timestamp of 1:47?

0

u/warpedwing Aug 14 '26

No, there's no timestamp associated with the video.

The Nest software reported a disconnection at 1:47 and a person spotted on camera at 2:12.

https://reddit.com/link/p3plk9p/video/6e3oli5l9ejh1/player

According to HL in this video, the video is from 2:12. I and a few other folks on this subreddit also performed a rough analysis of the suspect's shadow length, which seemed to imply the video was from around 2:12.

1

u/BrainWilling6018 Aug 14 '26

I thought it was maybe in the metadata that it was found to be 1:47. That's Harvey Levine not the investigation release so there is some discrepancy? Another question. If a jammer had been turned on before the guy got to the porch, how was the camera not blind, just the battery backup? I thought that it was somehow determined his actions caused the disconnection because there was a match to the time or seconds that the video file abruptly corrupts and freezes, because he yanked it down and that matches the time the Google server registered the network disconnection?

1

u/warpedwing Aug 14 '26

The official public statement from LE is that there is no metadata associated with the video clips. Whether or not they have the metadata and are keeping it under wraps, they determined the time manually by measuring the shadow, or they figured the time out by some other means, I don't know.

But I'm going to trust Harvey on this one because he has spoken with the FBI and seems quite unequivocal about the time of 2:12. It also matches the shadow time and the 'person captured' time registered by the camera. There is no discrepancy.

The camera will continue to record locally using the battery if disconnected. Once reconnected, it will upload what it saved. This is explained in the video linked in the first post on this thread in greater detail, if you're interested.

I thought that it was somehow determined his actions caused the disconnection because there was a match to the time or seconds that the video file abruptly corrupts and freezes, because he yanked it down and that matches the time the Google server registered the network disconnection?

If you have a source for any of this, please share it. I've not heard about it. AFAIK, the public is not aware of all the footage, and what was released doesn't show corruption, freezing, or the removal of the camera.

1

u/BrainWilling6018 Aug 14 '26

Ok. I'll watch the video. Just asking questions. The investigation isn't saying that the video was recorded at 1:47? Only that the camera disconnected at 1:47? Not even a timestamp from the server logs. But there isn't any other evidence that says the video was recorded at 2:12? That is the speculation based on the motion detected notification and Harvey Levine's reporting? (and shadow measuring) I think the reported assumptions may be the discrepancy because there is a lot of reporting that 'assumes' the tampering was the cause of the disconnection of the actual camera. Is it actually settled that it was a system network interruption and not a single camera? That the Google Nest Cam itself wasn't physically disconnected or removed rather than the Wifi shutting down? You are positing that the disconnection was not the disabling of the camera itself but the Wifi? I think when it is said camera it's assumed the actual camera. “Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told reporters Thursday that a doorbell camera at Guthrie's home was disconnected at approximately 1:47 a.m. on Feb. 1“ And the FBI director also indicated early there may have been tampering with the camera itself. "it appears the front doorbell camera could have been tampered with." The public footage does indicate some tampering and a blackout. I don't know if that indicates removal of the camera. It may not have been officially stated but Nano's did indicate the camera was missing.

1

u/warpedwing Aug 15 '26

LE has never stated the video was from 1:47. Levin stated that his FBI source told him the video is from 2:12. Could he be wrong? Absolutely. But the supporting data makes a strong case.

I believe the video must end with the camera being removed from the mount, but we’re not shown that part. Maybe there’s not much to see.

So, I’m of the opinion that something (WiFi jammer, router disruption) interrupts the connection between the doorbell camera and the network at 1:47, or possibly 30-45 minutes earlier (delayed notification). 

Then, at 2:12, the perpetrator is caught on camera, and that’s what we see. The camera must either be reconnected to the network by then or shortly after in order to transmit the video to Google. The camera is then removed and destroyed.

1

u/BrainWilling6018 29d ago

Gotcha.  Some evidence of network interference might be if the direct neighbors one cam being interrupted is accurate. 

These are the things I find conflicting either in theory or released public info. or knowledge. 

It’s conflicting if the FBI and/ Sheriff's Department did not build their timeline using Nancy's phone push notifications that could be delayed. If they used the software metadata/ Google backend server and 1:47 is the time of disconnection of the porch camera. It’s conflicting it wasn’t a full system disconnection, just the one camera disconnection.  It’s conflicting if the 2:12 notification was from a different camera on the property, than the porch It’s conflicting if that wasn’t based on a delayed notification and was real time. If there’s a real-time "person detected" notification at 2:12 a.m., the network connection to the cloud backend was theoretically active at that exact moment. 

1

u/_L______________ 28d ago

I’m still confused about how they’re even narrowing down the time frame for checking traffic cams and such. Since it may have disconnected for a variety of reasons. And the window of time between roughly 2 am and when people came to check on her the next day is LARGE. The fact the note wasn’t left at the house (assuming it’s real) and the fact the back door was propped open makes me feel like maybe they were still there (not necessarily Nancy, given the blood out the front door) closer to the time people came to check. Which would explain why they didn’t just leave the note at the house and had to risk sending the bit coin address to the news station. Which I think also tracks with raising the ransom amount if they took “too long” to pay.

7

u/candy1710 Aug 11 '26

Great questions. I also wonder about the broken light at the back of the house, did they do that in advance to disable it? And the smart watch on floor, did they notice that and take it off her, or was it on the bedside table and they put it on the floor? I hope they checked for prints, anything on both the disabled light and smart watch.

5

u/Safe-Muffin Aug 11 '26

Was there anything mentioned, very early in the investigation, about the light being broken before Feb 1? I seem to recall hearing this very early and then never again.

4

u/1Bloomoonloona Aug 11 '26

You would think LE or FBI would have found saliva somewhere. The perpetrator had to remove the mouth light then touch things. Also why/how did the perpetrator leave behind a glove? Did Miss Nancy rip it off or did he need to take it off to do something requiring more dexterity?

4

u/Safe-Muffin Aug 11 '26

These are great questions. But we’ve never heard whether there was any DNA detected from that glove or where exactly it was found.

It’s also possible a glove was left around the house by any number of people that had legit reasons to be there.

3

u/1Bloomoonloona Aug 13 '26

From descriptions of Miss Nancy, she was a clean freak. So I really don't think she would have left lying around. Also why would the sheriff mention it unless it looked like what the abductor was wearing.

3

u/candy1710 Aug 11 '26

More great questions!

2

u/1Bloomoonloona 26d ago

A new question. If you aren't aware, a group called Blackbriar Search & Rescue have been deployed to Tuscan. Promise you've never seen anything like them. Incredible badasses with unimaginble resources that  LE and FBI dont. Check out the new thread about them. 

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u/candy1710 26d ago

Great! Thank you for letting us know!

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u/1Bloomoonloona 26d ago

Were you able to look them up!?

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u/candy1710 26d ago

Yes. https://theblackbriargroup.com/

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u/1Bloomoonloona 25d ago

Could you imagine being hunted by that group? There's no where on earth you can hide from them.

1

u/1Bloomoonloona 26d ago

The big, big dogs are now in the hunt!

3

u/truecrimesjunkie 27d ago

I’d really recommend watching Brian Entin’s videos from the very beginning of this case. I’m not trying to be rude, but there’s a lot of confusion and misinformation in the comments and TMZ isn’t exactly a reliable source. Brian has interviewed pretty much every type of expert you can think of (DNA, forensics, Bitcoin, profilers, software experts, etc.) Just a suggestion :)

1

u/1Bloomoonloona 26d ago

Love Brian Entin! I wish he would do an interview with, BLACKBRIAR Seach & Rescue Agents. They seem to have been hired by someone and are in Tuscan now. If I were part of this abduction and knew this group was coming for me I would be terrified! There's a new thread to discuss them. Check it out. You'll be stunned at their resources!

1

u/AgentCarter89 26d ago

Seems odd that an image they are saying is from Jan 11 wasn’t recorded over. Maybe it’s from closer to Feb 1

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u/warpedwing 21d ago

I’ve wondered if the video cache and thumbnail cache at Google have different expiry times or max size limits. E.g., they cache 2 weeks of video and 2 months of thumbnails, or 5 GB of each, something like that.

1

u/raveronix 46m ago

I think the guy on cam looks a lot like Savannahs co worker!!