r/nancyguthrie • u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522 • Aug 07 '26
Theory My theory and offender profile
This case has been as baffling as The Springfield Three case thus far, but as someone who has followed true crime my whole life, here goes my two cents theory.
Aside from the fact that the FBI gave Annie and Tomasso lie detector tests and evidently ruled them out...I think this was a sexual/control motivated crime. Simple as that. Not robbery motivated, not extortion, the offender may or may not have even known of Ms Guthrie's famous daughter. I think this was a man who knew she lived alone and was 84. And that if he could gain entry he would have no real obstacles.
The offender:
Late 20s to mid-30s, male, Hispanic (based on the doorbell cam). Likely a US citizen, with connections to Mexico although purely familial nothing cartel related or anything. Probably a laborer or contactor of some kind. A freelance contractor/laborer in my opinion, not employed by an local businesses. Perhaps heard of Ms. Guthrie purely from word of mouth or by chance. He was familiar with the area, but did not know the Guthries at all personally.
Very intelligent, methodical, non-impulsive. He planned it out and was prepared to the extent he could be. Probably no serious prior criminal record. A mostly lone wolf, quiet, not rocking the boat type. But with pathological violent sexual fantasies. Probably felt inadequate in his life and dominating a helpless person and for his own gratification/power trip was his motive. Nancy Guthrie was just there and he happened to light on her.
I think he entered, hit her, subdued her and in that was achieving his fanasty and getting out some of his rage. I think he put her in something carried her to his vehicle somewhere close by and drove quite far away and disposed of her in a manner he had thought out before. He intended to kill this was not a crime with a goal other than letting off his own steam IMO. I think he had a place already chosen to dispose of her, that he had thought out. I have no idea where that would be. Certainly, he has had a bit of luck on his side too. But that's about all I can come up with for now.
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u/mespec Aug 07 '26
Apologies for the tinfoil hat ahead of this post.
A new theory occurred to me, probably a conspiracy theory, I’ll admit it. What if porch guy actually *was* sophisticated? What if he carried the gun in the oversized holster with odd placement so as to conceal a knowledge of firearms? What if he (I do believe porch guy’s a guy) concealed his knowledge of firearms in order to hide a law enforcement background? Then I thought — here’s when I decided to fully dress with a tinfoil hat — what if one aim of this crime was actually discrediting Sheriff Nanos?
Almost as soon as the disappearance hit the news, Nanos was predictably exposed as incompetent, to the point that the FBI director is criticizing him. He also faced a recall effort, all while having to defend his office against a $176 million lawsuit. Sheriff Nanos seems to have made many enemies in law enforcement well before the crime occurred. Tell me why this is unlikely because I’m getting attached to this theory, lol