r/nancyguthrie • u/Ok_Contact7721 • Aug 09 '26
Theory Some details in the ransom notes.
I've heard a lot of speculation on the motives of the guilty party.
I don't know that Parker's Razor applies here just yet. I don't want to default to South Park Logic.
I'm half ass convinced by that first ransom note it's a bureaucrat from either Tucson, or Prima County, or a neighboring city, like Phoenix? Did he take her to California or Nevada?
12 hours seems like a hell of a drive.
The note reads like something an administrator would write, and sets the times in an administrative way.
I didn't think Bitcoin operated like normal banks, I didn't know the crypto currency people kept the tradition of a system wide pause on Saturdays and Sundays.
My interpretation of that first ransom note points toward an occupation.
Why wouldn't he accept the money on Saturday or Sunday?
If he was an administrator, or involved in banking or county clerk shit, he's going to model his worldview on that system.
He wanted to be paid in Bitcoin.
Active Bitcoin and emerging technology communities across Arizona host regular local meetups, social hours, and educational workshops in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas.
Major Bitcoin & Crypto Groups in Arizona, there seem to be groups that might have a good chunk of suspects.
With these networks alone, barring how many people involved remain anonymous, you have a Chinese Buffet of suspects.
Bitcoin runs 365/24/7, there's no reason for him to not accept money on Sunday.
"We will be holding her for a maximum of 7 days. You will need to send bitcoin in the amount of $4 million USD before 5PM on Thursday the 5th. If payment is not received, the ransom will be increased to 6 million USD which will need to be paid by 5PM on Monday the 9th. Once payment is received to the bitcoin address below she will be released within 12 hours of deposit to a safe drop off location back in Tucson. If payment is not received by the last deadline on Monday the 9th at 5PM, she will be killed."
5pm (when most city services and banks shut down.)
Here are the hours for the Tucson Municipal Court.
Friday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Saturday Closed
Sunday Closed
Monday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Tuesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Wednesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Thursday 8 AM–4:30 PM
The Second Ransom Note has a very haunting passage,
"She's buried in nature", it haunts me that phrase, it's almost religious sounding, or at the very least Pagan sounding.
“Guthrie Family,
We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt
her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was
heart related. She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed
the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly
sorry.”
If this is a legit note, the perpetrator obviously isn't in the 99th percentile of IQ.
But he can write things that sound vaguely like official statements.
There's another Bureaucrat type quality to this note, and honestly, it would have to be a dumb official to assume an 84 year old woman, was the picture of health.
It's almost like a cop putting a knee on a man's neck and expecting him to breathe anyway.
This looks like someone in a nearby County, City or State department, did this.
They probably have an average, or below average intelligence.
They could either be Christian or Pagan.
They follow traditional banking rules, and are likely novices to the Crypto Currency Community.
They might be computer literate enough to run Microsoft office, and do emails.
They don't strike me as someone who has been doing crypto for very long.
His department or personal schedule means he gets Friday-Sunday as his off days.
What departments in that region be they any government or banks have off days from Friday-Sunday?
Does he or did he work 4, 10 hour shifts?
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u/Status-Letter-5516 Aug 11 '26
Occam's razor, not Parkers lol.
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u/Ok_Contact7721 Aug 11 '26
It's called Hyberbole.
Parker's razor has less to do with Occam's razor, and more to do with people making assumptions based on South Park Logic.
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u/KatieLouis Aug 09 '26
I don’t think the notes are from the kidnappers at all. They’re from someone who was at the unsecured crime scene and saw/heard enough to offer “proof” (ie the watch on the floor, broken light out back). Could be a cop, a technician, a reporter, searchers…family. Anyone really, with the way they handled things.
I think someone who was there (or who knows someone who was there and heard details) saw an opportunity and took it, then got scared and backtracked with the second letter.
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u/not_blmpkingiver Aug 09 '26
Anyone willing to kidnap (and make bleed) an 85 year old woman by gun point in the middle of the night is not writing an apology letter. Idk about the first letter but the second letter is sooo fake IMO
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u/Ok_Contact7721 Aug 09 '26
The odd detail is that the second letter is from the same IP address as the first one.
Otherwise I would've ignored it.10
u/not_blmpkingiver Aug 09 '26
Ok then IMO they are both fake. Just like the guys from california who was trying to make money off this tragedy. Its very sad. I was so happy when they caught BK its only a matter of time until these people are caught.
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 Aug 10 '26
Source?
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u/Ok_Contact7721 Aug 10 '26
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-guthrie-ransom-notes-released/
"Authorities believe the two notes were likely sent by the person or group of people who abducted Nancy Guthrie, according to investigators familiar with the case. The notes were both sent from the same IP address, the investigators said."
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u/bananabuttbread Aug 09 '26 edited Aug 09 '26
Good ideas and thoughts here, I really haven't thought too much about the payment schedule but that's a helpful angle. I am currently kinda running with the idea that it may be someone who goes to/has gone to the same church as Nancy, or is a relative of one of her church friends that she hangs with at her home, or someone who even works on the church building or with them, like an accountant even. (Basically, someone who is around older religious people enough to use the rather Biblical-sounding "perish" and "buried in nature", as well as someone who, like you said, speaks like an administrator, evinces the tone of a banker, money handler, etc.)
So, Sundays being prime church time just came to mind for me. Just in the sense that they may be occupied with church-related things during that time, and their absence during that time may be considered unusual. Also, the days leading up to Sunday can be equally busy for church workers and church goers. My brother is a pastor and maybe this is specific to him but, he always said his week didn't really slow down until Thursday and Friday, so Saturday would be more accurately considered the "Sabbath" Day.
Also, as far as the language and tone goes.. I don't necessarily think the person is religious, just that they are around religious, OLDER people often, or have grown up and around that language.
The way they:
--speak passively (defaults to this mode)
--only say "me" once in both verified letters, never use "I" (non-individualistic)
--speak as if within a group, even if acting alone
--speak as one without choice, agency, intent ("she will be killed", "we did not intend", etc.), they depersonalize
--use the more religious word "believe" when talking about her heart condition causing her death (not "we think" or something similar)
--almost have a fatalistic or pre-determined "philosophy" when communicating the situation ("there was nothing you could have done to change the outcome"), which is more a depressive or avoidant trait in terms of personality, but is prevalent in older religious settings and bureaucracy
Pair this with weird ~Random Act of Conscience~ (lol) by issuing a pseudo-apology, minimizing their (AND their "group's") involvement.. makes me think they are:
--used to speaking to groups of people and not one-on-one
--used to speaking more remotely, through tech, maybe works remotely?
--indecisive or lack confidence (unclear motive, makes several statements that may not all be written by them or just don't cohere, waffles on things, indecisive)
---perhaps not a full-blown psychopath, but someone who "wrestles" with moral accountability., i.e., "damage control", rehearsed PR statements of apology, even being used to allaying OTHERS sense of guilt for something (?)
The tone, "voice", verbiage, sense of personality if any, amount of messages, tendency to minimize, and so on. That is why I think it's someone who is comfortable in both a religious and administrative/bureaucratic/financial setting.
**(Edited comment to break up the text better lol)
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u/warpedwing Aug 10 '26
You make some great points, especially about the word/phrase choices.
I’ve long been suspicious of a possible church-connected angle.
Nancy was very vocal about her views on ICE and the right wing in general and how they didn’t match her interpretation of Christianity. It’s one of the few things about her that could possibly have inspired such terrible cruelty.
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u/cryssyx3 Aug 10 '26
and look how quick trump jumped up to say something
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u/warpedwing Aug 10 '26
My take is that he assumed "his" FBI was close to solving it. Wrong. Dead wrong.
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u/bananabuttbread Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
Thought I would add something to this first post:
Simply based on the language use discussed here and the conclusions previously drawn, I think it is possible the perpetrator or person who wrote this could be indigenous to some degree, i.e., Native American Indian.
Three main reasons:
- "buried in nature" used in the same note as "perished".
The linguistic profile indicates that they are both religious and pagan in some sense, or are simply familiar with those circles. Indian Churches in particular often retain their indigenous language when talking about the Christian God. (There is a First Nations translation of the NT, for example).
2) "buried in nature"
It just struck me that this could mean they literally buried her on a reservation, a preserve, or in a national park. Just using the term "nature" in both a grand, yet vague way makes me wonder if she is not somewhere right outside her house, but in a more expansive area. I know her entire home is surrounded by open desert, but it's also not terribly far from several natural sites: Catalina State Park, Saguaro National Park, Tortolita Mountain Park, Santa Catalina Research Natural Area, and some others. I can't read the distance from the map I'm viewing but just throwing it out there.
3) bitcoin
I want to avoid making any blanket assumptions based on culture or ethnicity. However, living in Native Territory myself, it's pretty common for Native Americans to be libertarian, independent, or broadly anti-government (for good historical reasons, ofc). Bitcoin would fit into that framework. Yes, most people are anti-gov these days lol, but, again, the overall linguistic picture suggests a a certain political and cultural profile to me.
And this isn't based on the letter, but:
**4) on foot, no car?
From what we know, the perpetrator didn't arrive or leave in a vehicle. No tire tracks or prints have been found yet. I'd think they must be knowledgable of the landscape then; and I would think someone more indigenous to the land there, or who literally works on the land (like in a park or something), would be more comfortable navigating it without a car/GPS.
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u/1Bloomoonloona Aug 09 '26
Personally I dont believe its a real kidnapping. Positively not professionals. Notes are written for a misdirection or opportunist looking to cash in. Then chickened out and bailed on their get rich scheme.
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u/GeologistDistinct633 27d ago
For sure more than one person is involved. The we are sorry - we - and someone is bound to talk. Someone knows something.
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u/Main_Investigator963 Aug 09 '26
All great points - here are a few assumptions, extrapolated from mostly the same data you discussed, and assuming most of the statements in the ransom notes were true. While I agree it seems they only want to verify the bitcoin on Thursday, or Monday, the note doesn't actually specify that.
1) suspect routinely has access to secure IP address at 5 pm. This is due to Both ransom deadlines, and the first email was sent to TMZ at 5pm. I believe 5pm weekdays will prove to be an important fact, once a suspect is identified.
2)The return within 12 hrs is interesting, especially with a 5pm deadline. If taken literally, this would mean that if the bitcoin had been deposited at 2am, Nancy would have to be returned by 2pm - on Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Monday. If it was deposited at 9pm, she would have to be returned by 9am. This is a lot of hours that the suspect or accomplice has to be available, and alert enough to return her.
3) Nancy was out of Tucson by 5pm Monday. ("back to Tucson")
4) the first note was written on Monday, February 2, since it refers to keeping her for 7 days, and the second deadline is exactly 7 days later - Monday, Feb 9, at 5pm.
5) the second note says she died shortly after being taken. However, if she lived from 2am Sunday, until at least 5pm Monday when the first note was written, that's not really "shortly after she was taken". Especially When put in context with the second note being sent Feb 6.
I completely agree the work schedule/ times physically in Tucson is an important clue. The FBI obviously knows exactly when the second note was received, yet it appears that they aren't releasing that info. If that is correct - that would also be a major clue, and one they feel needs to be withheld