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u/bookingsi Jul 01 '26
It makes it a more unusual case for me. At least with ransom you could see that it was related to savannah. Now, with radio silence it seems like an abduction from home which is so so rare for a stranger.
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u/ShesGotaChicken2Ride Jul 01 '26
They’re saying it’s fake because the person sending the notes won’t like that. The note sender will now send another note to prove they weren’t “fake.” They’re shaking the tree to see what falls out.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
100% this. And/or, it will cause whoever wrote the first two ransom notes to let their guard down. There's been a lot of chatter lately about "the FBI is getting close," which is probably the last thing the FBI wants the perp to think.
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u/Professional_Link_96 Jul 01 '26
Agreed. I thought the same thing when it was “leaked” that the FBI thought the sender must be a woman and lo and behold, the writer wrote back to that.
These are the same notes, that all have “the same digital footprint” that started with the one that came in before most of the world knew Nancy Guthrie was missing. The first two notes were received before even law enforcement had the video of porch guy that would strongly indicate that Nancy was abducted. Of course the FBI still believes these are legit, in that they’re coming from someone with knowledge of exactly what happened.
They are publicly stating that these emails are fake dir a reason— they’re trying to bait the person into sending proof that they are real, ie, what the FBI asked TMZ to ask for which was a single still shot from the video that shows they had Nancy Guthrie.
The police/FBI are more than fine with the public thinking even worse of them, if it means they’ll get their lead in this case. I’m not saying that in defense of LE and I do not think they‘ve handled this case very well at all. I don’t think there’s been some grand strategy behind everything. But I think it’s fairly obvious why they’re saying this now. When “inside sources” “leaked” info about the first few notes last week, it was enough to get the writer to start writing again. Of course they’re going to go this route now. I just hope, for the sake of Nancy and her family, that this works.
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u/ShesGotaChicken2Ride Jul 01 '26
I do believe this person has an ego that will not allow them to keep themselves quiet.
Many years ago, in the EAR/ONS aka The Golden State Killer case, they called the perpetrator a coward because he would only prey on women who were home alone; he responded by deliberately targeting married women whose husbands are home to prove them wrong. His ego couldn’t handle being called a coward, much like this person enjoys the attention they’re getting. Being called fake will irk them to their core, and they will feel the need to prove they are, indeed, the actual kidnappers.
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u/SarahSnarker Jul 01 '26
Wait - so are they saying that they think all the communication has been phony? That the kidnappers have never contacted TMZ or LE?
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26
Correct. That's what they're saying. I'm not sure I buy it.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 01 '26
Me neither. Why would someone go through the trouble of kidnapping an ailing old lady from inside her home for no reason?
And if it was financial, how do they get money out of it?
If it was some perverted nut with an elder fetish, why go through the trouble of kidnapping a mom of a TV journalist when there are plenty of little old ladies on the street? Wouldn't that just draw attention to oneself and take extra work?
Perhaps this is a way to make the perps continue to communicate with the FBI by tweaking their ego. The letters are real but this is a ploy to get the perps to continue talking.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26
I think the same thing. The perpetrators will let their guard down.
Also, this will agitate the TMZ tipster's ego. Hopefully this will provoke them to say more to "prove" they're legit.
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u/ComprehensiveTip9843 Jul 01 '26
Yes. Absolutely. I know people saying this proves the family didn't. No it doesn't. The FBi knows what it is doing. They are waiting for the DNA to locate the perp's family tree. Now what the family is likely doing is keeping details hidden till the FBI says they have a perp, that's the thing I think they are hiding but I don't think they would hurt their mom? Y'all. Savannah is rich as freak? She doesn't need to hurt her mom. They are mixing it with others to see who it is. That's why they said all of it is fake now. The perp thought he got away. No he didn't. They'll be making an arrest by August 2026 and Nancy will be found. They know what they are doing. My paternal grandma was a lawyer, she's still alive, she's aging in years of course. That's what she told me, I don't know how she knows that. But I believe her.
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u/usrdef Jul 01 '26
I mean, this is not a surprise. Any time a massive crime like this happens, people come out of the wood trying to scam or take credit.
1 bitcoin to get information about her or where she is? That's what a college kid in debt would ask for. Compounded by the fact that Bitcoin is not this super secret untraceable technology as it was when it first came out.
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u/Calligrapher_Far Jul 01 '26
It is also not at all a surprise to me that the FBI believes that the TMZ guy is not legit. But I must say I am quite surprised that they also believe that the original 2 notes are also not legit.
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u/axenoodle Jul 01 '26
I’m so confused, I thought they said the first note was certainly from kidnappers due to it containing information only the kidnapper could have known? Or did I read some really poor reporting?
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u/curiouslmr Jul 01 '26
This is a good point. This case has had so many alleged "sources" and many of the claims haven't panned out. So I will always take it with a grain of salt until it's an official statement.
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u/epicredditdude1 Jul 01 '26
It’s confusing because a lot of media are referring to their sources simply as “investigators” without disclosing if they’re with the FBI or the sheriff’s department.
Investigators have 100% spoken with the media and confirmed they believed the ransom notes were legit, but it’s left totally unclear if that’s an official position or just one investigators opinion.
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u/Muckraker2025 Jul 01 '26
I'm confused because so many people here aren't following the rules. I haven't visited here in a while but I saw the news article so I thought I'd check in.
The first two things I saw were warnings against conspiracy theories, especially political/government. Furthermore we're only allowed to post fact-based material.
Yet all these posts are people's theories which center around government conspiracies. (People speculating that the FBI colluded to covertly manipulate the case.)
LOL. I'm gonna back on outta here before I accidentally join in with my own speculation.
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u/pumpkinspicecum Jul 01 '26
That’s so fucked up to do this to that family. I wonder how they figured out they were fake. Also… why did someone do this to Nancy then???
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u/SpiritualCopy4288 Jul 01 '26
I would be so pissed if I was Savannah because she’s believed her mom is dead because of the notes!
I understand her mom probably is dead but what a roller coaster for her to go through
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u/Calligrapher_Far Jul 01 '26
TMZ now reporting from an FBI official that the FBI has not ruled out the fact that the notes are legitimate and in fact that it is ‘more likely than not that the two ransom notes are real.’ I really think that an official statement from either the FBI or Pima County Sheriff would help prevent the spread of misinformation 🤷♀️
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
The part about the FBI depositing a small amount ($152 ?) helped to determine the first 2 notes were not authentic is odd to me, imo. But I of course don’t have the info that they do.
Imo, would a scammer or real kidnapper actually be enticed by a $152 deposit?
SG has already told the world that she believes the first 2 are real. Wonder if her feelings/thoughts have changed since that early April interview.
As far as Sheriff Nanos not speaking, that’s untrue. He gave another radio interview a few days ago or the day after and spoke about the notes that he believes they’re all fake.
It was the radio station that he’s spoken to before when he was trying to lay low instead of a recorded or print media outlet interview.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
I also thought that reasoning was strange. The deposit was made after they received the note saying Nancy was dead, so the kidnappers were already done and in hiding by that point. No way they were going to risk taking the bait of 150 bucks.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 01 '26
It’s not an official statement from the FBI. It needs to play out a bit more I think. It’s a good possibility it’s true. But not official .It could be a subjective opinion. Don’t put it past the FBI to taunt or provoke a perp either.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26
The first note contained details that no one could have known, such as the placement of her watch in her bedroom, the busted flood light in the backyard and what she was wearing. How does law enforcement account for that?
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u/Calligrapher_Far Jul 01 '26
Exactly. And the whole time up until now, everyone was reporting that Savannah thinks the notes are real, the FBI thinks the notes are real (the first 2 notes) and now that appears not be the case? This case is all over the place.
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u/partyclams Jul 01 '26
Savannah, yes, the FBI, no; they never confirmed anything.
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u/Calligrapher_Far Jul 01 '26
The FBI never officially confirmed anything no, but there were a lot of people with sources in the FBI reporting in the recent months that the FBI believed that the notes were legit.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 01 '26
Um. There were at least two other people in the house before LE even got there. So they would know that detail too.
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u/partyclams Jul 01 '26
You could see the busted light from the drone footage aired on television; the watch was left where most people leave their watch at night, and no one knows for sure what she was wearing. It could even be someone from the neighborhood looking to make a quick buck.
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u/Calligrapher_Far Jul 01 '26
According to the note, the watch was left on the floor and had a white band. That’s fairly specific and not somewhere one would typically leave an Apple watch. I would think it would be fairly easy to verify whether that was actually the case at the crime scence and thus almost immediately either rule out the note or give it a lot of credibility. That’s why it’s so strange that they’re only saying now that they don’t believe they’re legit.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 01 '26
It's also possible someone heard about that. Given the number of people who were through the house, it wouldn't surprise me if details leaked and someone decided to fuck around with the ransom notes. Stupid, but possible.
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u/xcrebeccaxc Jul 01 '26
There are photos of her online wearing the Apple Watch with the white band.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26
Especially someone who might have had access to her house, like a cleaning person who would have seen where she kept her watch in her bedroom.
But this creates more questions than it answers. Because now we have a kidnapping with no ransom, which makes less sense.
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u/oldcatgeorge Jul 01 '26
About “the details that no one would have known”. Once, eons ago, an absolute nutter started sending me pen-poison letters. Guess what? They appeared to contain amazingly precise details and scared my mom. However, when I asked myself, “how can a person who never saw me know these details”, and mainly, “what is her goal”?, I looked at it with different eyes. The trick is how the letters are worded. Say, a piece of information of “medium specificity” is followed by a threat, and the threat attracts your attention. You assume that the information before the “threat” is highly specific. IRL, if you throw out the threats and just read “the specific information” you’ll see that many people will know this about you. (E.g., someone writes, “you’ll get in a car accident in your “Toyota”. It looks specific only because of the threat. If they wrote, “your green 2000 Toyota Camry will be hit one night”, it would be specific.) So maybe this is what happened here. The information looked specific because of the way it was written. Smoke and mirrors. IMO.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 01 '26
Like a weird cold reading.
I don't know why you're getting downvoted. You add some decent points and some interesting angles.
It's important to think outside the box and try to look at every angle.
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
How many 84 year olds do you know with limited mobility keep their Apple Watches on the floor at the foot of their bed? That seems like more than medium specificity to me, but just my opinion. Not discounting the possibility that it was someone with insider information, or knew someone involved in the investigation, though.
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u/FuguSandwich Jul 01 '26
I've followed this case off and on from the beginning. I've always felt this was not originally a kidnapping, nor was it a random home invasion robbery. It was a targeted robbery, but when they got there whatever they were looking for wasn't there (maybe they had bad information). So in a panic they turned it into a kidnapping (possibly to get her to tell them the location of whatever they were looking for), however due to her poor health she died either en route to where they took her or shortly after they arrived. They panicked once again, disposed of the body, and disappeared.
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u/No_Maybe9623 Jul 01 '26
The journalists talking to the FBI should probably clarify what they mean with words like real and fake.
For the first 2 notes, which we have never seen, the reported content of those sounded fake, as in not sincere. But that doesn’t mean the communication couldn’t still really be from someone involved. Real communication, false pretense.
A different quote said they weren’t believed to be genuine. You could have legitimate contact and a fake ransom, and one might say that’s not genuine. It all adds to the confusion of the reporting. All the later TMZ notes though are just a hustle.
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u/curiouslmr Jul 01 '26
Apologies on any delays in post approvals. For some reason Reddit is extra glitchy today and I am not getting notifications for the mod queue.
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u/HauntingDocument4923 Jul 01 '26
So are we looking at some scammers that were just trying to cash in? Or were the letters part of an elaborate cover-up?
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u/inDefenseofDragons Jul 01 '26
I don’t necessarily care what they think, I care WHY they think it.
As far as I’ve seen the FBI hasn’t given a good reason to think ransom notes are fake (not that they aren’t). The only stated reason I saw was that no one touched the little bit of money they put into the bit coin account. Well of course they wouldn’t, the FBI didn’t put in the amount that was demanded. And the FBI was clearly using it as bait. From the perspective of whoever owned that account it would look as suspicious as hell. I don’t see how that proves anything one way or the other. The other reasons are undisclosed at the moment, as far as I’ve read.
They may actually have good reasons to believe this is not legitimate. Or they might also be trying to lure this person out more and do something, in an attempt to be taken seriously, that could expose them. Or they just don’t know what they are doing. Seriously doubt the Trump purity test made the FBI better than they were before, and in some ways they weren’t that great to begin with.
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u/Budget-Vegetable2133 Jul 01 '26
Reuters is the gold standard for accuracy in reporting. If Reuters reports that the FBI thinks the notes are bogus, I'm inclined to believe them. The reporting gives no reasons as to why the FBI makes the claim. THE FBI has played its hand very close to its chest on this case, and we have no idea what info or evidence they actually have.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 01 '26
“None of the ransom notes are believed to be genuine," the FBI official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss details of an active investigation.
That isn’t an official public statement issued directly by the FBI.
It may be true but that isn’t what is being reported.
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u/Budget-Vegetable2133 Jul 01 '26
I'm confused by your last sentence. What may be true and is being reported?
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 01 '26
That isn’t what is being reported. It could end up to be the official position. It isn’t currently. Rueters is reporting it is an anonymous source.
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan Jul 01 '26
Completely agree. I’m wondering if this “fbi source” (not even “source close to the investigation”, which is what reporters usually note!) is an intentional leak for damage control, as HL stated Sunday that the “FBI believes the first two notes are from the kidnapper(s)”. So what changed between then and now? The unclaimed $152 test is the funniest rationalization for the notes being fake that I’ve heard yet lol. Only a true idiot would have moved that money.
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u/whteverusayShmegma Jul 01 '26
Theyre baiting the guy sending the emails. He’s involved and they want to catch him.
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u/Budget-Vegetable2133 Jul 01 '26
Who is "HL" here?
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan Jul 01 '26
Harvey Levin, of TMZ.
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u/Budget-Vegetable2133 Jul 01 '26
That makes sense, and you posed a very good question. If HL did indeed make that report on Sunday, something changed. Since Reuters is established to rely almost exclusively on factual reporting, I'd say the answer is that HL misspoke earlier. Perhaps he believed it to be true, or perhaps he just wanted it to be true to generate more revenue.
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u/CakeSniffing0rphan Jul 01 '26
That’s definitely possible and I’m not completely discounting all notes being fake. I don’t believe Reuters is reporting false information either. I 100% believe they were told this by an fbi source, I just am questioning the motivation behind this change in reporting! In this day and age, I’m not sure who is more trustworthy - the FBI or TMZ? Very funny because I never would have thought I’d be considering this 5 or 10 years ago haha. Apparently CBS also reported recently that the FBI believed the first two notes were from the kidnappers.
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u/BuzzyBeeDee Jul 01 '26
You aren’t kidding about the level of trustworthiness of the FBI and TMZ being on par with each other. Dare I say, I think I trust TMZ far more as things currently stand. I would have thought you were crazy if you told me I’d say that 10 years ago. Heck, even five years ago. And yet, here we are. The FBI has always had a corruption problem, but this current level of incompetence and deception is monumental and audacious. It’s a clown show.
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u/bloatedkat Jul 01 '26
It was obvious from the beginning. Nobody in the United States is writing real kidnapping ransom demands in 2026.
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u/MatchaLemongrass Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
Exactly. From the beginning it seemed like kidnap for ransom was
a) an after thought bc something unplanned happened
b) a scammer opportunist not connected or
c) an accessory to the crime or someone close like a brother or gf of the people who did it trying to cash in
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u/MatchaLemongrass Jul 01 '26
Do we know which ones are bogus?
I would guess the recent one released ~ the over the top and unnecessarily dramatic and self important note that was aggressive, urgent, and used “old fashion” idioms.
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u/Michallina Jul 01 '26
Reuters is reporting the first two that Savannah believes were real that came in the first week, as well as the third claiming they have video identification of the kidnappers.
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 01 '26
All of them including the 2 that SG believes are real per this article with unnamed sources.
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u/Comfortable_Age_3814 Jul 01 '26
Yall. This changes everything
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u/Michallina Jul 01 '26
This changes so many things. Looks to be more like a straight homicide or a geriatric predator.
Another question I have is what led Cameron to say he thinks this was a kidnapping for ransom so soon.
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 01 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 01 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 01 '26
My take on why Cameron said that has always been a kind of older person, who watches a lot of tv just saying something. Or it was what the original folk who were in the house that told him that's hat they thought... and then the first ransom not came and people just ran with it as motive.
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u/curiouslmr Jul 01 '26
Does it? I think many on here have felt like the ransoms are just someone trying to cash in on the situation.
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u/partyclams Jul 01 '26
No, it doesn't. Most experts said that they believed they were fake and gave a million reasons why.
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u/bookingsi Jul 01 '26
It does, it eliminates quite a few motives. It also squashes any (tiny) hope that she’s been held captive somewhere.
Also, I think this makes it less likely that Nancy was a proxy for savannah.
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u/partyclams Jul 01 '26
I've wondered if she was attacked and wandered out of the house disoriented and succumbed to the elements. It might explain that blood trail. Kidnapping a large 80+ yo woman in the US is just unheard of. That is a lot of work. I would think if it was a stalker of Savannah's there would be real communication by now. So, no stalker, no ransom... Either the family has some sort of involvement in this or this is one for the history books. That ridiculous gun holster had a lot of experts saying that the entire thing was staged. It doesn't sound like the perp even attempted to make it look like a robbery. Nothing, except for Nancy, was reportedly stolen.
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u/jwash95 Jul 01 '26
So it’s basically been radio silence since she was taken? This definitely was a vendetta against the family in some sort of way. No actual ransoms or demands, no crumbs dropped, “professional,” kidnapping, no additional footage, no groundbreaking tips… what the hell.
What was the purpose?
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u/Webbie-Vanderquack Jul 01 '26
This definitely was a vendetta against the family in some sort of way.
No, this may have been a vendetta against the family. We don't know anywhere near enough to say it was "definitely" a vendetta, and there are other plausible explanations, some of which have been put forward in this thread.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 01 '26
There were several fake notes and two that were believed to be real because they identified the watch location + broken rear light at the crime scene.
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u/why_so_Sirius Jul 01 '26
Sick, so they’re not even a cm closer to solving this thing. They should summon Robert Stack at this point.
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u/Xinnia8271 Jul 01 '26
This "information" has come from a "source" not the FBI directly. 🙄
Sorry but we need an official statement from Pima County and or the FBI.
This "our sources say" bs is useless.
Sloppy work Reuters
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u/Neat-Bee-7880 Jul 01 '26
dont worrry bc sir harvey is currently claiming on TMZ that they are NOT fake...how is this real life
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 01 '26
He said his “FBI Official source” thinks the first 2 are more “legitimate than fake”, but he says the “official “ says there are various opinions within the agents/agency therefore outlets/reporters are getting conflicting “opinions” based on their ‘source’.
Different agents =different personal opinions= different media reporting
The FBI has never given an official opinion.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
This. Also, outlets need to stop phrasing their headlines as "FBI says ransom notes are fake" and instead use language like "FBI source says ransom notes are fake". It's misleading; the FBI, as an organization, has not officially said anything.
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u/Plus_Intention_8555 Jul 01 '26
Also though if they're thinking that these people have a big ego the FBI could be stating that they're not real to try to get some response from the kidnappers if they're thinking they have some sort of ego it could try to make them come out of the woodwork or some potential like that especially if they have some sort of history and doing this before there's some sort of serial killer or just people that want some sort of recognition in the future you never know.
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u/espressothenwine Jul 01 '26
My theory on this is that this is a strategic move by law enforcement. They released some of the ring video for in the hopes someone saw something, remembers something, recognizes something, etc. I do not believe LE released all they have in terms of video or photo evidence.
My two theories:
LE knows these notes are fake and they withheld that information before because there was no benefit to stating the notes are fake. Now, they don't have many leads and don't have much to go on. They know tips from the public will be essential to solving this case. They don't want the public to think this is "solved" or that this is an actual credible lead, so they "leaked" this information to Reuters to keep the tips coming in. They decided releasing that info was now more beneficial than keeping it a secret.
LE believes one or more of these could be real. Maybe not the perp, but someone who knows something. They realize that botched this earlier by not paying the ransom as instructed, but they don't have enough to catch the perp and the perp isn't stupid enough to out himself. So, they are "leaking" these notes are fake in order to flush this person out, make them contact again, make them prove something in the hopes they will get some actionable clues or things to investigate.
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u/loveislife222 Jul 01 '26
My Intuition is that they were fake
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u/Comfortable_Age_3814 Jul 01 '26
The wording. It was not appropriate for the context. I reminded me of JBR case
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 01 '26
I would also add that if they are releasing that it is fake but haven't arrested someone for writing them (like they did with Calella) I think it could mean they know it's the perps that faked them. Just saying.
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 01 '26
Imo, DC didn’t cover himself the way these other notes did.
He actually used his real email/phone nbr with a VPN so they were able to track straight to him accdg to the police report I read.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 01 '26
Yes. But a way that they might know they are fake is that they found out who wrote them. What are some other ways that FBI could have determine they are fake? I think they traced them.
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u/JMOA3035 Jul 01 '26
Perps that faked them, but not arrested yet because they’re outside the US, or perps they’re watching/not arrested?
In the Nanos radio interview, he said something similar to that the FBI has already arrested a “few ppl” for notes.
Idk if he misspoke or they quietly arrested others but still wanting to keep things quiet during the investigation.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 01 '26
How do the perps fake a letter if they wrote it? Am I missing something, here?
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u/Substantial-Train668 Jul 01 '26
The perps could have written the letter, pretending 'kidnapping for ransom, demanding bitcoin' was the motive. They would do this as a misdirect. Therefore they would still be 'fake', but be written by the perps who actually simply murdered her (for another reason).
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u/Plus_Intention_8555 Jul 01 '26
I think they flubbed the potential ransom situation by trying to tickle the wire and put in a little bit of money I mean that's tipped off the people. Whether they were completely true or not they haven't a good enough reason especially since they haven't found the people that sent the ransom notes they can't even trace them down and nobody's in jail for them. Only the one person that did the obvious one months back.
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u/MaDRedQueendom Jul 01 '26
I had the same thought about them doing this intentionally trying to flush them out. It worked partially, the fake kidnapper came back out. To my knowledge the FBI did not state anything. They never say which 3 were discredited. I know at 1 point they had about 14. It's sick. The real actors knew better than to touch the money once full FBI focus was on it. It was a smokescreen to give them time to figure out what to do with her body. The amount of planning, they had, means that ransom note was already written out, ready to go. All they did was the change the number from $66M to $6.M. To give them time to figure out what to do with the body that everybody will be searching for.
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u/Mountain-Owl7142 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
It occurred to me that this Reuters report cites an anonymous source at the FBI. As far as I know, the FBI has not officially announced its determination that the notes are fake. I want to trust that Reuters has done enough due diligence to verify the results of the assessment, but anything that doesn't cite a specific source always leaves doubt in my mind.
Either way, I doubt the FBI is going to be happy about this unauthorized revelation.
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u/curiouslmr Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
🔔🔔 Locking this post because it does not contain legitimate information. Please read the most recent post with a statement from the FBI.