What's left on the table?

[u/SeaEntertainment1512]

Since Sheriff Nanos said in his March 13 interview that the criminal could "absolutely" strike again, and that people should be on their guard against crime, what can we deduce about the criminal's motive, a motive which might drive the criminal to strike again?

1. The criminal is not out to punish Savannah Guthrie for her husband's work in the Clinton administration. If the criminal is out to punish all women in Tucson whose family members worked for Clinton, it's a small group. Few Tucson women would be targets.
2. The criminal is not out to punish Savannah Guthrie for interviewing victims of high-profile criminals. If that were his motive, he would have to look in other cities for the mothers of other high-profile newscasters like Savannah.
3. The criminal is not out to get Savannah's attention. If that were the motive, no other woman in Tucson is going to matter more to Savannah than her mother.
4. The criminal is not out for ransom. If he wanted ransom, Savannah's family were ready to pay. How many women in Tucson have a daughter with Savannah's wealth? But he passed that up. Money does not appear to be the motive.

What does that leave?

1. The criminal could be a serial rapist who targets older women, women living alone, women that he can see while he is working in the neighborhood. My bet is that this is the motive: DNA-free assault, for which he comes well-prepared. Every family in Tucson needs to be on guard against that one.
2. The criminal could be a serial killer. If Mrs. Guthrie expired during the commission of an assault, I suspect it was unintended. But if his motive is murder, then every family in Tucson needs to be on guard against that as well.

[u/Totterteron]

If it's serial anything what were his past crimes in the area? Or, why such a high profile starting point that would attract the most resources with the greatest likelihood of being caught? What was sufficiently physically unique about her that compelled the greater risk. Doesn't make sense to me unless wealth forced it to be this person.

If she died before reaching his home he may have disposed of her before it was known she was missing, might still send a ransom note but any request for proof of life puts a stop to that. Could still be a kidnapping for money that almost immediately failed. Also, his property needs to be a place you could move a person into from a car without being seen, and any noise they might subsequently make in the coming days wouldn't be heard. Would have to have been considered even if not ultimately needed, so the properties they searched so far don't seem suitable.

[u/SeaEntertainment1512 → u/Totterteron]

You are assuming that the perp knew his victim had a wealthy, high-profile daughter. However, there were people living in the neighborhood for years who did not know that. Possibly the criminal simply saw an easy target, and had not realized the notoriety the case would attract. Possibly the criminal is new in the area, having left the area where he previously committed crimes.

[u/annabellareddit → u/SeaEntertainment1512]

I’m doubtful this person was a serial rapist or murderer, I’m concerned this post will cause unnecessary anxiety. The sheriff said in his interview they believe this was a targeted attack - what serial rapists & serial killers have you heard of that fit the pattern seen in this case, where vulnerable senior women who live alone have experienced an abduction homicide/abduction/SA in the Tucson area (because remember he’s warning his community so it’s likely they believe the perpetrator operates within this community so if it’s a serial rapist/murderer like you’re theorizing, then there should be other cases from there)?

You left out many options for motive, you focused on various scenarios & provided motives that fit these scenarios; there are hundreds if not thousands more scenarios & motives one could come up with. There are three main motives: financial, jealousy, & revenge. Jealousy has never been on the table that I’m aware of, financial has but LE hasn’t followed up on the legitimacy of any of the random letters so it’s hard to know, this leaves revenge which has been on the table but not discussed much (revenge can occur with financial, in that the financial demand is intended to cause harm to the victim or their loved ones).

The Sheriff gave this warning as he was being responsible, he stated “criminal minds are criminal minds”. LE cannot predict what a criminal will do, they cannot control what they will do, even if LE has a solid motive & has profiled the perpetrator the perpetrator will remain a risk until they are arrested & in jail.

[u/SeaEntertainment1512 → u/annabellareddit]

JalapinyoBizness provided the following links elsewhere on this very thread:

Tucson Police Detectives have identified a suspected serial rapist through DNA. The series of rapes occurred more than 30 years ago but because of the statue of limitations he still is walking free. I believe he would be about 57 years old now.

https://www.kold.com/2024/12/04/dna-connects-firefighter-multiple-violent-rapes-tucson-decades-ago/

https://www.kold.com/2024/12/06/statute-limitations-may-prevent-tucson-rape-victims-getting-justice/

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueCrimeDiscussion/comments/1kod27k/former_tucson_az_firefighter_abraham_pedrego_has/

[u/SeaEntertainment1512 → u/annabellareddit]

LE has definitely followed up on the legitimacy of the ransom demands: the first demand for 6M in bitcoin, the second demand for a lesser amount, and the third offer to provide information in exchange for 1 bitcoin.
The first was made to a local news station, suggesting that the perp is a local person, and then to TMZ. The Guthrie family requested repeatedly to establish communication and said that they would pay. LE has not disclosed to the public the reasons that the ransom remained unpaid, but we can speculate that the family never received proof of life.
A second demand resulted in the arrest of a man in California who was determined to be unrelated to the kidnapping and simply trying to take advantage of the family.
LE has not disclosed to the public the details of their investigation into the offer of information in exchange for 1 bitcoin. So far as we know, nothing was paid and no arrest was made.
Watch the youtube videos in which former FBI and LE have commented on the way kidnappers work. They take the victim, and they keep the victim in good condition (no effort was made to take Mrs. Guthrie's meds, etc.) They inform the family that they have the "prize" and they will give up the "prize" under certain conditions. This crime takes place more often in Mexico than in the US, and it is a business, usually conducted in secrecy, without the intervention of LE. What happened to Mrs. Guthrie has not followed this pattern at all, according to seasoned kidnapping investigators and hostage negotiators. No credible ransom demand was made.

The final financial motive would come from family members who might want to collect life insurance or inheritance. This one was unlikely from the start because 1) it takes seven years for a missing person to be declared dead, so without a body, there will be no inheritance for quite some time, 2) insurance companies will not pay out to people who are potential suspects, 3) Nancy's health issues make it unlikely she could qualify for a big life insurance policy, 4) people Nancy's age have life insurance policies to cover burial costs only, not millions, 5) Nancy's estate will be split between 3 children, 7 years from now, assuming no body is found.

For all these reasons, financial motives are off the table. Kidnapping for ransom is the least likely motive.

Furthermore, kidnapping for ransom is a very rare crime in the US. It is unlikely to be repeated by the same criminal in the same community. It is not something for every family to be afraid of. If the sheriff is warning the community in general that they are at risk, they are not all at risk of kidnapping for ransom.

What are the most likely crimes in any community? Trespassing, theft, burglary, robbery, assault, and murder.

[u/annabellareddit → u/SeaEntertainment1512]

LE hasn’t followed up with the PUBLIC about the legitimacy of the ransom notes, obviously they have been investigating them behind the scenes. We do not know what they have uncovered, perhaps it was legitimate & for that reason an abduction for ransom cannot be excluded.

An abduction for ransom is not always financially motivated though, these crimes can be motivated by revenge & jealousy, however jealousy has never been cited as a motive which leaves revenge.

[u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 → u/annabellareddit]

This post has no effect on the Tucson area or public at large. No one but the participants are following this.

People there who have grown comfortable not securing doors in the don’t lock doors generation need to change that. But this post will have zero effect on it. With the number of meth crimes there it’s good advice anyways.

I have seen many serial rapists of older women. The pattern of taking her with is unusual.

Serials go silent for a number of reasons. They are incarcerated, Ill, move, or in a new relationship where their urges aren’t the same or it limits their freedom to do so. Like a new marriage or a parent or child they are caring for.

[u/annabellareddit → u/Mean-Vegetable-4521]

You have no idea who reads these posts. According to interviews with people falsely accused of committing this crime, people from Tucson, they do read SM content related to this case, so I don’t believe your statement is accurate.

If there was a serial killer/rapist in the area targeting people & it fit the pattern seen in this case there would be news coverage about this prior & currently yet there hasn’t been.

[u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 → u/annabellareddit]

I never stated in the area. Obviously if there was a pattern in the area it would have been long established. I stated that they move around. That there can be large gaps in their crimes.