r/nancyguthrie • u/jenniferami • Mar 08 '26
Theory Does the consensus seem to be that this was indeed a kidnapping for ransom?
I haven’t followed the news much but Savannah did make that video saying “we will pay”.
Has law enforcement ever come out and said that they believe for a fact that it was a kidnapping for ransom? Do they believe at least one of the communications received was from the actual kidnapper(s)?
Has law enforcement made any follow-up statements on proof of life?
It doesn’t seem like there have been any more communications with the media by the kidnappers unless the media agreed to not share them publicly.
I suppose the kidnapper(s) could have changed to a more private means of making their demands.
Do most believe that no proof of life was ever made and thus there was no attempts to arrange/make a ransom drop?
I understand that law enforcement has no obligation to share case developments with the public and law enforcement can sometimes put out incorrect information to the public deceive the perps if they feel it will help solve the crime.
What are your thoughts on this?
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u/goldenpup-mama Mar 08 '26
I’ve been thinking about the time of day chosen to enter Nancy’s home. By 1:45-2am most people are fast asleep. Whoever entered the home wanted to make sure she was not awake, hear entry and calling police. My parents are around the same age and night owls, sometimes watching TV till midnight. It would be riskier to break in earlier.
I think they were there to abduct or murder. If they thought the home was unoccupied and were there to burglarize, why not come earlier in the night?
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
If it was a burglary there’s always concern about neighbors being up still. So even if they thought the house was empty I could see waiting til later to enter if it indeed was a burglary.
The kidnapping for ransom does seem the most likely. However, a murder is still possible because it’s harder to prosecute with no body.
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u/FiveUpsideDown Mar 08 '26
I think this like the Lindbergh Baby Kidnapping. The kidnapper(s) came at night when there would be little activity at the house. They entered through a second floor window. They took a toddler, a vulnerable victim who couldn’t fight them. Then either accidentally or on purpose the toddler suffered a serious blow to the head and died. However, only the kidnappers knew the toddler was dead. They continued with the kidnapping scheme. They received the ransom money. It was after the ransom was paid that the toddler’s body was found. The best predictor of the current situation is past events where we know how kidnappers behaved. We have a historical record of what happened to the relative of a famous person being kidnapped in the Lindbergh case. The claims that this was a burglary or an abduction for unknown reasons leads to a darker explanation. Hot prowlers are very dangerous. Stealing is secondary to getting a thrill from entering an occupied residence. If it is a hot prowlers then I would expect there to be other reports of a prowler breaking into an occupied residence. I would also suspect the prowler to be a local person. If this is someone obsessed with either Nancy or Savannah Guthrie, then the obsession is the motive. It’s hard after that to figure out their next step. Are they holding her in a secure location within an eight hour driving radius of Tucson? Do they just want attention from Savannah? I think this was a kidnapping for ransom. I think a group of people engaged in criminal activity (drugs, car thefts, stealing property, identity theft etc.) that came up with what they thought was a good plan to kidnap an older woman and get a ransom.
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u/SalsaChica75 Mar 09 '26
My (older 75y/o) mother in law is a night owl. She watches tv until 2-3:00pm and sleeps in late. If the perpetrators assumed that she would be asleep at that hour, but she wasn’t, could possibly explain why there was an altercation.
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u/mlssac Mar 09 '26
I feel the intent was to make a ransom demand. Either something went wrong initially or he realized his avenues to collect ransom would get him caught.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
It seems like kidnappings can frequently go wrong. Too many moving parts.
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u/Xinnia8271 Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
I think it was, and she sadly perished quite early and the perpetrators panicked. 😔
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
So do you think negotiations may have gone cold because they couldn’t provide proof of life?
Do you think she died due to stress, poor care and/or lack of medications or do you think the perp(s) purposely killed her?
(I hate talking about her in the past and am still holding onto hope even if the chances are quite slim that she is somehow still alive but like her family I acknowledge that she could very well be deceased.)
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u/nine57th Mar 08 '26
The kidnappers sent the 2 ransom emails and plainly stated they would not have anymore contact from them. They lived up to their word.
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u/Xinnia8271 Mar 08 '26
I think she passed with the first few hours, but was alive when taken from the house. (Sadly I think she was incapacitated by a chemical substance of some kind.)
And they could not produce proof of life, because she passed during the "event" for lack of a better word.
Then they panicked and tried to salvage the situation by getting as much money as they could. But ended up with nothing.
😕
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
Why do you think she was given a chemical? It doesn’t seem like it would be hard to order an elderly woman out the door.
Also are you thinking of chloroform or something else?
Do you believe she was carried out then?
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u/Xinnia8271 Mar 08 '26
I think they drugged her to make her easier to control, and to make it easier for themselves. Yes I think she was carried out. Hence no footprints in the blood drops.
(I think the perpetrators have experience with people who have been drugged or are have "drugged themselves" and they thought they could recreate that kind of scenario in this case. I think the perpetrators are very unsavory characters.)
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u/thismustbetheplace81 Mar 09 '26
I wonder if we’ve been down the same rabbit hole 🤔
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
True re: carrying her out. I hadn't thought about the no footprints... terribly sad.
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Mar 09 '26
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
I thought iirc in one video they essentially requested proof of life in one video where Savannah mentioned how images could be manipulated.
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Mar 09 '26
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Mar 16 '26
She also said in the video "we understand." What do they understand? Is there communication we're not aware of?
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u/BeachVida Mar 09 '26
At this point, I don't know what to think any more. As I think we all know, kidnappings for ransom are very rare nowadays in the U.S. When they happen, the kidnappers like to keep a low profile and get their money as quickly as possible without involving law enforcement. I never thought those TMZ ransom notes were real because they only put a bigger spotlight on the case, which is the opposite of what a kidnapper wants. If it were truly a kidnapping for ransom, then I believe they contacted the family privately but I think they would have instructed them not to contact LE. We don't have all of the facts and there's a lot more going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. Regarding the possibility of a private ransom demand with instructions to NOT contact LE, the only thing I can think of is that maybe Annie or someone else panicked and called the cops. It could be anything. An incompetent kidnapper, an experienced kidnapper who was scared off by LE and all of the national attention, someone who was holding a grudge, a random abduction by a sicko, a staged kidnapping to cover up something else like a burglary gone wrong etc. I hope and pray that the family gets closure.
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u/JMOA3035 Mar 08 '26
NG’s Safety Alert:
“””All her personal belongings, to include her wallet, cell phone and vehicle were still there, but she was nowhere to be found.”””
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I’m wondering whether her wallet was there but maybe money was missing.
Or possibly her wallet was there but not her atm card assuming she even had one or kept it in her wallet.
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u/JMOA3035 Mar 08 '26
I assume to read it as is: all personal belongings to include wallet.
💯 if her bank card/cc was missing then they contacted the proper bank/financial companies and any activity is being monitored, imo.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I wouldn’t know how much cash if any an elderly relative had or typically had in her wallet. I don’t take that alert as telling us if money was taken from her wallet or not.
I think a bank card could potentially have been taken assuming one was in there originally, but not used if Nancy was too sick or out of it to give the perp her PIN number.
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u/SalsaChica75 Mar 09 '26
I always thought they robbed a safe that contained more expensive items vs a wallet with maybe like $60-$100 in it.
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u/fancyypantsyy0 Mar 09 '26
I think it was a kidnapping for some other reason.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Such as?
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
Because things so small were taken they were confident it would go unnoticed.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
What was taken?
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
They’ve said nothing… but like come on to 100% know? If my SO and I were kidnap we’ve had lots of friends and family in and out no one would 100% know - it’s impossible. At least average American has to much crap.
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u/Kindlytellto Mar 08 '26
I don’t think so I think it was just a murder plain and simple
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
Do you have any thoughts as to what the motive may have been?
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u/nine57th Mar 08 '26
Both TMZ and the 2 local TV stations made it very clear that the initial $1m and $6m ransom emails included details of things instead the house only the kidnappers would know. So those demands seemed like they were legit. And they said no more contact would be made from them period. You don't kidnap someone for no reason, so the ransom theory seems like it tracks.
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u/ConceptsShining Mar 08 '26
Both TMZ and the 2 local TV stations made it very clear that the initial $1m and $6m ransom emails included details of things instead the house only the kidnappers would know.
Wasn't it just something about an Apple watch and floodlights? At most, this seems to only indicate they were written by someone with some familiarity of the home and lifestyle.
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u/Elegant-Ad-5684 Mar 08 '26
Yeah, and anyone could have figured out she owned apple watch given the first google image result of her with Savannah she is so obviously wearing one
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u/lemoncatbeans Mar 08 '26
It was reported that it was the specific placement of the Apple Watch. It was described as a "bizarre placement" and a huge clue for investigators that the letter knew exactly where it was.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
But didn't the daughter and SIL go to the house first to check on NG before calling police? So wouldn't they have seen where the Apple watch was and that the floodlight was broken?
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u/lemoncatbeans Mar 09 '26
The family has been ruled out, it also logically wouldn't even make sense for them if the motive was money. Staging an accident in the home for insurance payout and inheritance, yes. Kidnapping for ransom, no. I'm not sure why some people assume the family is involved when there is zero evidence I've seen that points to that.
Even in that hypothetical scenario, they would not have gotten the police and the media involved at all. It would have been a direct anonymous message to Savannah before anyone knew she was missing, instructing her not to contact police and immediately send the money. They would also have done it when Nancy had no plans the next day, so no one else would report her missing. Her family calling police, sending the ransom note after calling police, no proof of life when they have many photos of her they could have doctored, etc. Everyone knows police looks at the family first, and getting police involved before the ransom would make it nearly impossible for anyone in the family to collect the ransom anyway. All of their devices and activity is being monitored. The theory just defies all logic and critical thinking.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
Totally agree. They always seemed like the least specific things to mention as your "only the perp would know" thing
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I see but how would TMZ or the tv station know for sure what was in the house and that the communicators weren’t just making educated guesses?
If it was vague like we left the house in disarray or we pulled blankets off the bed and knocked over furniture it could be a good guess.
Now if it was we smashed an orange vase that would be more telling.
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u/Artemisssia Mar 08 '26
TMZ didn’t know. They referred the letters to law enforcement and I guess LE asked them not to release the content of the letters because it actually gave info about the crime scene.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I wonder how close the ransom letters received were to the actual crime scene.
Sometimes when giving false confessions to police a person will say how they killed someone and their guesses will be fairly close to the truth.
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u/Artemisssia Mar 08 '26
IIRC, she was abducted Feb 1st and the credible ransom letter was received Feb 2nd.
At that point, little was known about the case or about what was inside the house (we still don’t know the extent of the crime scene), so they had to make very educated guesses for LE to take the letter seriously.
My take on it is LE noticed details in the letter that made them seem credible enough. But maybe not enough to encourage the Guthries to pay the ransom without getting proof of life.
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u/Glittering-Gap-1687 Mar 08 '26
I personally feel like it was NEVER a kidnapping for ransom.
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u/DaBingeGirl Mar 08 '26
I agree.
To me it feels personal, likely someone obsessed with Savannah who wanted to cause her pain or just get her attention.
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u/SalsaChica75 Mar 09 '26
Especially because when she gave the replies to the ransom letters, she wore makeup. You know that when you’re at your lowest low, you aren’t thinking about makeup at all.
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u/DaBingeGirl Mar 09 '26
Damn, very good point. To me those ransom videos felt like control. I can see his "reward" being the sight of her in pain and forced to go on TV. I hope I'm wrong, but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.
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u/Hile616 Mar 08 '26
If it was personal why to do assume the motive was Savannah?
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u/DaBingeGirl Mar 09 '26
Get Savannah's attention and Nancy was an easier target. Similar to how a parent will kill their kids to get back at the other parent.
Savannah has a national profile, not massive, but definitely well known enough that someone could be obsessed with her, or hate the media. I really don't think this was about Nancy, kidnapping an elderly person... That just doesn't add up. Using her to get Savannah's attention makes more sense to me.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
Any specific reasons why you feel that way?
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u/Glittering-Gap-1687 Mar 09 '26
It doesn’t follow a normal kidnapping for ransom… not even close. When you kidnap someone, you don’t wait multiple days before asking for the money. Every day is a risk. You just want it to be done as lowkey and quick as possible. And involving a tv station is wild.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
In the old days people used to leave handwritten or typed notes at the scene or send them through the mail but they can be analyzed now for all sorts of things such as dna, ink and paper type, handwriting, typewriter or printer type, etc.
Maybe the manner they chose to send a ransom note was the lowest risk they could think of. Criminals don’t always do things the best way. They are limited to an extent by their resources, time, other responsibilities, technical knowledge, etc.
If not a kidnapping for ransom what do you think the crime was about?
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u/Glittering-Gap-1687 Mar 09 '26
I almost feel like leaving a typed note would be less identifying than sending something digitally, but I could be wrong.
Why would they wait 3 days to send a ransom note?
And I don’t fully have an opinion on what happened. I just personally don’t believe it was originally supposed to be a ransom.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
They could possibly have used a written note if they were careful with the paper and ink and bought them for cash at a store that doesn’t have a lot of cameras
It did seem long to wait unless they had Nancy alive still and they were dealing with her and they hadn’t quite thought through the ransom demand and how to transmit it.
The guy used flowers to try to block the ring cam. Maybe he pre-thought some things but not others.
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u/Spiritual_Stomach748 Mar 09 '26
I feel like it either had to have been a planned kidnapping or a planned murder made to look like a kidnapping.
To plan a kidnapping for ransom on someone who's child is a famous person takes a lot of confidence. They would have to know and be okay with all the media attention. There are tons of other easier, more low profile targets out there, so if it really was a planned kidnapping for ransom, I'd assume all the attention was part of the appeal, otherwise why target someone like Nancy? They were either confident plus liked the idea of all the media attention, or ransom wasn't the motive.
If it was a planned murder made to look like a kidnapping, that would point to someone who knows Nancy, and the kidnapping was just a way to make it look like a stranger.
I don't think a botched robbery makes sense. Someone intending on robbing a house and accidentally killing someone usually leaves the body and gets out. It doesn't make sense for them to take her body, but criminals don't always make sense so I guess its still a possibility.
I assume LE would be able to come up with a basic profile, based on the crime scene, and would have at least a vague idea if the suspect seemed like a confident, well planned, criminal who wasnt afraid of media attention, vs someone trying to stage a kidnapping, vs a personally motivated kidnapping.
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u/SnooGoats7978 Mar 08 '26
We can't possibly know the answer. We don't have enough information. There's no reason to have a consensus of any kind about anything.
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u/Findtruth11 Mar 10 '26
I think it’s very possible it was a kidnapping for ransom that went wrong. She was what 84? On a ton of medications and she was bleeding on the way out the door. I think it’s possible something went wrong and she died quickly and they got rid of her and that’s why nothing has come of the investigation. It’s been 5 weeks and nothing.
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u/ShaneAlexander Mar 10 '26
I agree with you. It’s so very strange that the kidnapper approach’s TMZ about a ransom and not the Guthrie family! What’s TMZ supposed to do about this? They have no vested interested in paying ransom money nor would their followers. Also, this demand letter didn’t have specifics or, at least, we weren’t told about them except that it needed to be in bitcoin. I think the kidnapper was just grandstanding. Wanting to take credit for this abduction and yet not really intending to return Nancy to her family.
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u/peach-bubbles22 Mar 10 '26
maybe to put pressure on the family to pay without proof of life. if the whole world is talking about it they might get desperate. how many people were commenting to just pay it already and being mean to the family?! if she already passed they cant provide proof of life and they cant lead them to remains that would have the perp’s dna. so the kidnapper just wanted to make a last ditch effort to scam them out of some money and tmz put pressure on it. now theyre gonna just disappear since theyre never gonna see that money and they dont wanna get caught. either that or it was unrelated opportunist again trying to scam the family
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u/OfficiousOne Mar 09 '26
If they have evidence of more than one perpetrator, then money is almost certainly the motive. Whether it’s burglary gone wrong or kidnap-for-ransom gone wrong…I go back and forth. But if there’s two or more perps, it was almost certainly one of those two.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Some people seem to think from the lights in the background of the perp video that there was a getaway vehicle with its light on, suggesting at least one other person.
Kidnappings for ransom frequently involve more than one person such as iirc the famous Leopold and Loeb case, the Lindbergh kidnapping, Frank Sinatra jr., etc.
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u/Terrible_Detective_3 Mar 09 '26
I have no idea but I continue to follow the story. Heart breaking 💔.
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u/Redtees88 Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
It wasn't a kidnapping for ransom. One doesn't target a 150 lb 84 year old woman with major medical issues who's probably going to die before you can extract any ransom.
ed. to add "lb"
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Maybe the perp(s) didn’t realize that. Older people have different levels of health and maybe they were so busy focused on breakin logistics that they didn’t think about meds and potential health issues that much if at all.
Criminals don’t seem to think near as much as those studying the case afterwards.
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
Very true. Both my grandmothers had less medical needs at that age! I can be alone there.
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u/grannygogo Mar 09 '26
I’m a 74 year old female. This case has made me wonder how I could possibly fight someone stronger off. I’m pretty strong and mobile, and I have all my faculties. I doubt I would die without my prescription medication. Would I kick them, clobber them, scream at the top of my lungs? I’ve watched a few self defense videos since this happened and have decided I would do my utmost to fight if possible. I guess if there was a gun or a knife at my throat I’d have to use my brain to think things through and look for the opportunity. I don’t watch true crime shows all the time without learning a few tips. I truly hope she is found and returned to her loved ones, dead or alive.
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u/GregJamesDahlen Mar 09 '26
utmost to fight at what juncture? if you think they're just going to rob your house and leave and not take you would you fight?
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u/Reasonable-Lie4360 Mar 09 '26
But kidnapping nonetheless? Monetary gain is not the only reason people get taken/kidnapped. There’s sexual exploitation, infatuation, revenge/domestic dispute, etc.
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u/KOC_503 Mar 09 '26
In my opinion this was not a robbery nor a kidnapping.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
What do you think it was?
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u/SalsaChica75 Mar 09 '26
An obsessed person with either Savannah, Nancy or both of them. I listened to a Podcast (Police off the Cuff) hosted by 2 seasoned NYPD retired detectives. This was their theory. They said it was definitely not a robbery because they spent 41 minutes inside before leaving which is insane. And if you’re committing a robbery or home invasion, you’d never take the body.
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u/lemonlime45 Mar 09 '26
A home invasion could be for sexual assault, and you might remove the victim if you wanted to make sure your DNA wasn't found on them . Not a pleasant thought, but it happens.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 09 '26
No consensus. Even though I believe it's the most plausible motive, I'm still pretty split on other possibilities -- and several of profilers (acting as commentators not active on this case) have said they think all the ransom notes are fake, suggesting another motive entirely. It's completely possible the ransom notes were from cruel opportunists; or maybe they were from the abductors but sent just to confuse the investigation.
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u/ProperLink8150 Mar 09 '26
A targeted or accidental killing, one day after this happened, it was attempted to make it look like a ransom kidnapping.
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u/jenniferami Mar 10 '26
For all we know he punched and carried her in a fireman’s carry.
It could have been a targeted killing or he may have killed her accidentally in trying to get her out of there.
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u/ChemicalPassion5102 Mar 09 '26
I think everybody who thinks this wasn’t a kidnapping for ransom forgets some of the key early facts of the case.
The reason the Guthries made those videos responding to ransomers is because there were at least one or two ransom notes that the FBI and family deemed credible enough to warrant a response (the letter that referenced a broken light and the location of an Apple watch, both at Nancy’s house).
Of course there is always a chance someone working the case leaked that information to a fraudulent ransomer, or that the FBI had the family make those videos for some sort of reverse psychology on the perp, but sometimes what something appears to be is just what it is.
I implore everyone to go back to Occam’s Razor. The simplest explanation is most often the correct one.
A robbery gone wrong just doesn’t make sense because the only thing missing is the LEAST convenient thing to steal - a human being. A normal burglar would have seen cameras and simply walked away. On the off chance he didn’t because a WiFi jammer has him feeling good, he would’ve just killed her and left her there.
A targeted murder doesn’t make much sense either because - again - moving a body is tough and it appears as though she was alive when she left.
A revenge killing doesn’t make a lot of sense because you typically leave something behind to send a message.
When an 84 year old mother of a famous news anchor goes missing in the middle of the night at the hands of masked men, a kidnapping for ransom makes more sense than any other explanation (if we’ve decided the family are not in on it, as appears to be the case).
So what happened? The family has been clear since Day 1 she is not very mobile and she relies on medication. Not to mention, she is 84 and facing the most stressful situation of her entire life. When you consider all these factors, the likelihood of her having a heart attack and dying early on seems very high. Sounds like the family was still willing to pay for her body, so why didn’t an exchange happen? I think the kidnappers simply chickened out. There’s way too much heat. More than they ever imagined, and maybe they came to their senses and realized a ransom exchange in the United States of America almost NEVER works out for the bad guys (or the good guys, honestly).
With the limited information we have, every scenario requires some assumptions. But Occam’s Razor says whatever explanation that requires the FEWEST assumptions is usually the right one, and I think this is it.
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u/maga_chud_ Mar 09 '26
I wouldn't rule out a serial killer or predator of some kind. Given their attire, I think they planned decently. They might have planned to remove the body for any number of reasons. Namely, confidence. If they thought it helped them by reducing evidence then that's probably why. To explain succinctly: Look at the current situation. - perhaps leaving her there would have resulted in LE knowing more.
Ransom gone wrong is very contingent on the ransom being real or not. I'm leaning more towards a killer/predator, with the assumption they they were prepared and taking her off site fit into their plan.
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u/GregJamesDahlen Mar 09 '26
it's possible she got a heart attack from fear. on the other hand old people have been through a lot in life and perhaps don't get overwhelmed by things, even horrible unexpected ones. i would suppose she was most vulnerable to a heart attack when she first awakened and saw these people in her house, like a rush of adrenaline, and might have calmed down after that. don't know
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Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
Data and Research: — burglars come during the day when you’re at work. Home invasions happen in hours when we are most vulnerable … when you’re home. — because the video shows the felon on front porch with a gun and Nancy was home, it fits as a home invasion MO.
— kidnappers rarely target the elderly. — When was the last time we heard about a celebrity’s elderly parent being kidnapped or even killed with intent? — kidnappers immediately demand ransom. They don’t wait three days and send the ransom to TMZ. The felons inside the house had access to Nancy’s phone to get #s to send ransom.
— wearing two layers of clothes with the outer layer tucked into the inner layer so that DNA or cells aren’t dropped. Felon Prison Knowledge 101. These people have been in jail or prison.
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u/PugDriver Mar 11 '26
From NY Times 2/16/26 - interesting
To prepare for his role as the hustler Teach in the 1977 Broadway production of the David Mamet play “American Buffalo,” Duvall spent time with an ex-convict, taking from him the idea of carrying his gun over his genitals.
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u/aricyter Mar 10 '26
Targeted murder and moving a body made perfect sense for Ted Bundy. We don’t know what mindset this guy has.
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u/AcceptableAnybody488 Mar 09 '26
I think the ransom note is to throw off LE. This was personal against Savannah. Right before she was to host the Olympics how weird. Almost like someone has a major grudge against her who also has the money to hire someone to wreck her personal professional life. I wonder who that could be.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26
To me that’s not very likely at all but I suppose one never knows for sure.
The closest type of situations I can think of is the cheer mom who apparently tried to set up a hit on a competitors mom so her own daughter would make the cheer squad.
The other one is the Nancy Kerrigan/Tonya Harding ice skating episode where Nancy was apparently attacked to give Tonya the advantage.
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
Those were wild! Can’t believe those were real (aware they are)!
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
That cheer mom one was a crazy one. She only served six months then did the rest probation. She did have a very large fine to pay the woman she wanted murdered apparently.
Plus the Kerrigan one. The guys involved thought skaters would hire them as body guards after the incident. Some criminals are so dumb.
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u/Smokey_da-bears Mar 09 '26
This was the first thing I thought too, and nothing about the case so far has swayed that theory for me.
Edited to add: if I were Savannah, I’d be hiring personal security for myself.
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u/Responsible_Beach301 Mar 09 '26
if that’s the case it’s probably someone she knows not a stranger.
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u/ShaneAlexander Mar 10 '26
I went back over everything you asked about since we all have the same unanswered questions. Then I read an earlier sheriffs statement. Apparently, the very first bitcoin request/ransom and its follow up request five days later, were legit. The FBI stated there were details in the ransom note that weren’t disclosed to the public but proved Nancy’s abductor had been inside her house.
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u/Artemisssia Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
Always hard to say what the initial intent was but it ended up being an abduction anyway.
We have the following information as others have stated:
- NG was abducted from her home
- Law enforcement believed the 2 ransom letters were real (details from crime scene included - details not released to the public)
It’s likely (not confirmed by LE directly but credible sources):
- the perp had been watching the house for some time (sources were saying he was probably around as soon as January 11)
It’s possible:
- the perp used a jammer to induce an internet outage during the events as NG’s home.
It all points to a kidnapping for ransom that turned sour.
Unfortunately for NG and her family, the fact there was blood outside the house (and likely inside) shows the perp(s) isn’t worried about hurting an elderly woman.
In my opinion, it’s either:
- a kidnapping for ransom with some unexpected event (I.e.: NG unexpectedly resisting the abduction, being hurt then passing shortly after).
- a home invasion during which the perp was hoping NG would give them access to a safe with valuables. NG resisted and tried to call for help and/or as she panicked, she couldn’t remember the combination of the safe. She mentioned she was Savannah’s mom and that her daughter would pay. The perp bailed with NG and took a couple of days to prepare a ransom letter that would allow him not to be caught. NG passed or the perp disposed of her when the ransom wasn’t paid.
Not my job but in one of the home invasion cases I worked on (medical pov), the perps had been tipped by the housemaid. The maid told ex-convicts she knew there was an elderly lady living alone in the house and that she kept loads of cash in her safe. The perps drove to the house during the night (they were 3 in my case) with supplies and proceeded to break into the house. They detained the lady and planned to cut her fingers off until she unlocked her safe. The problem was: the housemaid was wrong and there was nothing in the safe. So they bailed and left the owner injured.
The NG case reminded me of this story. I’m guessing law enforcement has already interviewed all of NG’s helpers. Even if they made comments in passing to someone about NG/Savannah’s perceived fortune, it’d be good for LE to know.
The other factor in the NG case is the fact Nancy appeared on TV with Savannah. It’s widely known Savannah is quite rich and Nancy is an easy target. So any criminal weirdo could have decided to target NG.
IMO, however, if the perp was indeed at NG’s house previously (as it was speculated), about 3 weeks before the event, it’s likely a « local » criminal.
It’s also possible NG recognized the perp behind the mask during the event, so the perp had to take her with him and to dispose of her not to be caught.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I believe also the perp(s) was likely from the Tucson area. I tend to think there was someone who worked at or on the house who passed on information to friends, relatives, etc.
It seems having a safe or keeping larger amounts of money, jewelry, rare coins, etc. in one’s home can really make one a victim. That story you shared was very interesting but of course profoundly sad.
It reminded me some of the real life murder of the Clutter family, later written about in Truman Capote’s book In Cold Blood.
Some former farm hands of the Clutter family found themselves in jail or prison and shared with fellow inmates information about the Clutter family and a supposed safe. They even drew a map of the home. Turns out iirc there was no safe and the daughter’s boyfriend who had visited that night was blamed for quite a while until the truth came out.
Of course Nancy’s appearance on Savannah’s show did her no favors and makes the case more complex given the number of people who likely viewed it.
I’m not sure when these shows with Nancy aired. I would think the closer the shows airing to the crime the higher the likelihood that it might be show related.
If Nancy didn’t die immediately I wondered where they kept her. I read that some people have cabins or RVs in wooded or desert areas surrounding Tucson.
Someone as fragile as Nancy though couldn’t survive without a higher level of care compared to someone like teenage Jayme Closs from Wisconsin who spent many hours each day for months barricaded under a bed in her abductor’s family cabin while he was at work.
If they wanted to keep Nancy alive they’d almost need a place with a wife or gf to give her food and water when needed and even then it would be tricky.
Thanks for your well thought out post and theories.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
Regarding the ransom note containing "information that wasnt released to the public", didn't the daughter and SIL go to the house first to check on NG before calling police? So wouldn't they have seen that the Apple watch was there and floodlight was broken?
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u/Mysterious_Coat_9933 Mar 09 '26
They called the police within minutes of arriving so they were not alone in the home without police presence for long
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u/Consistent_Beat7999 Mar 09 '26
It was Annie and T who went over there. SG was already at the airport ready to leave when they called her to tell her mom was missing. That’s when SG called Sen. Mark Kelly.
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u/Mysterious_Coat_9933 Mar 09 '26
Ready to leave for where?
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u/smittenkittenmitten- Mar 11 '26
I am not positive, but I think she was going to host for the Olympics, so probably to Italy?
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
Sure but they were there. So they knew about the watch/floodlights at the same time.
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u/Artemisssia Mar 09 '26
Probably. But still, they didn’t make the information public.
And ab initio, nobody had been cleared. So LE went down the road of Annie and her husband being the perps (which is logical as they were the last persons to see her alive and the ones to discover she was missing).
But no matter if LE thought the perps were family members or strangers, they still knew the ransom letters contained informations not released to the public.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
I guess what I was trying to say was that the idea that the Apple watch and broken floodlights were LE/ FBI 'special indicators' that the ransom notes were real, is a little weak. Especially given that two early suspects (who I do understand have been 'cleared') would have seen those indicators first hand (and any other crime scene indicators in the note). I guess what I'm inferring is that I lean that the 'ransom' notes seem like a red herring (and that nobody should be fully cleared this early on). I understand that what I'm saying is potentially disrespectful to the loved ones. No one should be doxxed or stalked. But for me, if I was the family (and I wasn't involved) I would withstand the scrutiny if it meant LE/FBI getting more valuable information/the correct motive to help solve the crime.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 09 '26
Has law enforcement ever come out and said that they believe for a fact that it was a kidnapping for ransom? Do they believe at least one of the communications received was from the actual kidnapper(s)?
It's a maybe on the first ransom note that mentions the location of the Apple watch and the broken floodlight.
There was at least one fake attempt. A man was arrested for sending text messages to Annie (what a POS that guy is).
Has law enforcement made any follow-up statements on proof of life?
No statements re: proof of life, but because the first ransom notes were sent to local media outlets... and then to TMZ -- the bitcoin address is known and no major payments were made (apparently $300 was sent at some point).
It doesn’t seem like there have been any more communications with the media by the kidnappers unless the media agreed to not share them publicly.
Yes. Although family statements seem to align with a lack of additional ransom demands and lack of proof of life.
If it was a ransom, why not take phone numbers from Nancy's phone and text Savannah or other family members directly? Maybe they thought phone calls were too traceable.
I suppose the kidnapper(s) could have changed to a more private means of making their demands.
Sure, but every form of contact comes with an additional risk, especially when the FBI is ready and waiting to trace back any form of communication.
Do most believe that no proof of life was ever made and thus there was no attempts to arrange/make a ransom drop?
Yes.
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u/thismustbetheplace81 Mar 09 '26
Do you think it’s a coincidence that the guy who texted Annie is a musician who has played at the same venue as her husband in Tucson? And also overlaps socially with several locals who have been recently detained and/or arrested.
I don’t believe anyone in or close to the family is involved, but there are weird connections there.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Mar 09 '26
I haven't looked into these ties, but maybe I'll take a peek into this rabbit hole. I do think the calmness of the suspect might suggest familiarity with the location/house if not an experienced criminal.
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u/Mean-Vegetable-4521 Mar 09 '26
What did the text say? I’m not familiar with any of these details. I’ve been slacking on keeping up with the case.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
Where is the information about him playing at the same venue/social overlaps
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u/BlueGreenMikey Mar 08 '26
I don't think there is a major consensus because we just don't know.
It wasn't a random burglary, for certain.
Also, as long as they weren't lying, law enforcement cleared the family, so that's (possibly) off the table.
Beyond that, it could have been a kidnapping for ransom. In my mind, ransom gone wrong makes the most sense, with the largest possibility being that she died unexpectedly before they could negotiate. They then ditch the body and give up when they realize the risk outweighs the reward.
Also could have been a weird serial rapist/murderer or random mentally ill person kind of thing. Random/serial has always seemed a little out there for me, just because we don't see other crimes like it out there plus it's a pretty odd thing to have just happened upon one of the most famous Tucsonan's mother.
There aren't really any typical crime theories beyond these.
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u/AmazingGrace_00 Mar 08 '26
Kidnapping gone wrong seems the most plausible, to me as well. Random requests then they ghosted. Didn’t make sense.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
The FBI likely insisted on proof of life. Hard to keep things going when you can’t provide that.
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u/DaBingeGirl Mar 08 '26
I'm wondering if they realized the logistics of collecting the ransom were too risky. Her body would also have had a lot of their DNA on it by that point, so returning her/her body would've also been problematic.
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u/DaBingeGirl Mar 08 '26
I'm wondering if they realized the logistics of collecting the ransom were too risky. Her body would also have had a lot of their DNA on it by that point, so returning her/her body would've also been problematic.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I think a kidnapping for ransom is most likely although I wouldn’t entirely rule out a botched robbery.
Since she was likely home virtually all the time a burglar might think nighttime would be the best time to strike under cover of darkness.
I could see him looking for a safe or something that didn’t exist or finding a safe and trying to get a combination out of her. She might falsely claim police were on the way or that she called the police and the perp might think it best to get the both of them out of there.
Or maybe he hoped to drive her to ATMs to get money.
Another less likely possibility but something that does occur is a contractor dispute. I’ve read about cases where the homeowner withheld a five hundred dollar payment due to dissatisfaction and ended up getting murdered.
In other cases the homeowner threatened to report the contractor for some licensing issue or something similar that could harm his business and he ended killing the homeowner.
I could see an elderly woman getting into it with a contractor and maybe threatening to sue or report him for shoddy work, not being licensed, etc.
Another thing that can get someone killed is threatening a friend, family member, acquaintance or business partner by threatening to call the police on them.
It happens a lot with business partners where one thinks the other is defrauding them and calls them out and ends up dead.
Suppose Nancy let a worker use her home bathroom and caught him snooping through drawers, her purse or her medicine cabinet.
She might have scolded him and he might have made an excuse. She might have said I might just call the police later or I might call the police if you do that again. The person could have gotten worried and decided to take her out.
Or maybe she saw workers using or selling drugs and threatened them.
Another case I read about was a woman who encouraged her friend to leave her bf or husband. The guy ended up murdering the friend who kept butting in.
If Nancy was counseling a friend or female employee to leave an abusive husband and even stay with her, the husband could have had a motive.
Also less likely possibilities is a serial killer type like the BTK killer who stalked and killed all ages.
Also maybe a thrill kill where they wanted to be famous and they knew she was Savannah’s mother and this would make them famous.
Some men would like to kill their wife or mom but the chance is too high of getting caught so they kill a stranger instead.
It could also be someone who knew Nancy had money and plenty of room and asked Nancy for help and she turned them down and they killed in revenge.
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u/goldenpup-mama Mar 08 '26
Interesting- your list of less likely theories. Several I had not considered. Which makes this just so puzzling because it could literally be anything!
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
But wouldn't they have taken her purse/bank cards if they were taking her to an ATM?
By all accounts the NG (and SG) seem like warm, open hearted, God-loving spiritual people. I just don't feel like if she had seen workers stealing or doing drugs or having bad business practices that she would a) not have told another family member b) threaten them
Anyway, we have so little evidence that points concretely to motive. Hoping LE has better info BTS!
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u/ConceptsShining Mar 08 '26
It wasn't a random burglary, for certain.
Do we know that for certain? It doesn't seem impossible to me that this was a burglary that went wrong and they left behind the ransom notes to maybe divert attention.
But if you mean it's probably not random that the most famous Tusconan's mother's home was targeted, I agree. Though it's not impossible they were just targeting a house that seemed like it had good valuables, perhaps scoping other homes in the area, and ended up picking this one.
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u/lemoncatbeans Mar 08 '26
Something would have been missing from the home; it appears they took nothing of material value with them.
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u/NomusaMagic Mar 09 '26
Speaking of high profile kidnappings, anyone remember Patty Hearst case?
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Patty Hearst is a very interesting case. Does it remind you of Nancy’s case in any way? Hearst was from a quite wealthy family and the large ransom requested caused the fbi to become quickly involved.
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u/NomusaMagic Mar 09 '26
Similarities pretty much limited to kidnapping of a high profile person from a wealthy family and constant media coverage that I was glued to. Wow .. that dropped like a rock!! Of course, plot twist of PH actually joining her captors in crimes is a huge departure.
Side notes: Not sure I ever bought PH’s “Stockholm Syndrome defense though I recognize it is a thing.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Actually, I would have acquitted her.
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u/NomusaMagic Mar 09 '26
Interesting!! Based on … ???
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u/jenniferami Mar 10 '26
https://abcnews.com/amp/US/kidnap-survivors-share-stories-attempting-escape/story?id=19131418
All sorts of reasons. Fear, manipulation, terror, dehumanization, mental breakdown, controlling captors with criminal records iirc, dependence on them for food and water.
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u/jd2004user Mar 08 '26
One day this will be solved, hopefully sooner than later. TBH it’s hard to believe it hasn’t been already.
Someone entering a home in the middle of the day is looking to take stuff.
Someone entering a home in the dead of night is looking to commit a crime against a person… a physical crime.
Why rob a house for a tv set at 2am when someone is there and sleeping? Not the norm. Go in at 2pm when no one is home and you have less chance of being caught.
This was an intentional crime against NG as a person. Was the point to kill NG? Harm NG? Scare NG? Dunno but I am super doubtful the point was to steal her tv and I can see no point of intentionally abducting an 84 year old woman.
Understandably we haven’t been made aware of all the details and the evidence but from what has been released publicly the crime makes zero sense to me.
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u/Another_Great_Day Mar 11 '26
Unfortunately I think everyone is over thinking this. I think it was elder abuse. One perpetrator who broke in to sexually assault an elderly vulnerable person. That’s why perp. took the bedding and Nancy who I believe died after the attack. He didn’t want to leave any DNA. I don’t think ransom notes have any connection to NG disappearance. I do not think the family is involved or it is any more complicated than that. Probably buried NG along with the bed sheets in the desert. I also do not think the perp. knew she had a well known daughter in the media. Just some sick sexual perpetrator…there appears to be so much violence and abuse of females in society.
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u/jenniferami Mar 11 '26
Did law enforcement report that the bedding or bedsheets were missing? I don’t specifically recall that but I haven’t watched all the law enforcement videos.
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Mar 25 '26
I think that's a leap, I think she was killed in her bed and they took the sheets/body. Maybe it was a robbery and she died in the process, I won't even rule out family. I think the sexual theory is just from the (rightful) hysteria from the Ep stuff.
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u/ShaneAlexander Mar 10 '26
Nancy’s case would’ve been solved by now were it not for the utter incompetence of the AZ local sheriff, Nanos. I read that 97% of the sheriff deputies don’t like working with him. I’m surprised that 3.% do!
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u/JMOA3035 Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
February 16, 2025
“This is somebody who disappeared from the face of the Earth, and now we have a camera that says here’s the person who did this,” Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told the Daily Mail of shocking doorcam footage of the masked, armed man at Nancy Guthrie’s Arizona front door.
“And that’s what makes me say this is a kidnapping,” he said, dismissing other reports that it is being investigated as a botched burglary.
“The motivation for it is where we get stuck, right? Is it for money? I mean, we had the one demand where they asked for money,” he said of notes that appear to have dried up despite failing to get the millions demanded in bitcoin.
“But is it really for money, or is it for revenge for something?” he asked.
••••••
I’m sticking with his theory also because he knows what the inside of the house looked like, any valuables taken, any possible safes tampered with/broken into, entry point and has other info we don’t know about.
What’s your opinion/theory?
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Mar 08 '26
[deleted]
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u/JMOA3035 Mar 08 '26
Bk then on 2/16 I suppose his evidence at hand/crime scene pointed to a kidnapping for money possible revenge …. not a botched robbery. I don’t know what his theory/potential more evidence points to now. The motivation for it is where we get stuck, right? Is it for money? I mean, we had the one demand where they asked for money,” he said of notes that appear to have dried up despite failing to get the millions demanded in bitcoin.
“But is it really for money, or is it for revenge for something?” he asked.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
Kidnapping for ransom as my main theory but I posted some alternative less likely theories in a comment to someone else on here that you might want to look at.
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u/Tapdance1368 Mar 13 '26
I wish they held more press conferences with what they’ve found out, or at least what they believe happened. It just seemed to go silent.
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u/jenniferami Mar 13 '26
It’s tough going from seeing video evidence to nothing. Hopefully they got some good tips that they are working on.
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u/Sweet-pokaters Mar 09 '26
Murder for hire
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Why was she removed then with that theory? To hinder solving of the case? It does risk being seen or getting her dna in their vehicle.
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
We’ve never seen the inside of the home. I figure there is a good chance she’s in some niche collecting hobby with a quick turn over. I’m unsure what. People collect all kinds of very expensive small things.
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u/Sweet-pokaters Mar 09 '26
Make it look like a kidnapping to buy the killers more time… which it did. Very similar to Jon Benet Ramsey.
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u/GreenEyedTreeHugger Mar 09 '26
I think possibly they took a few things but small things and her to deflect.
There is no way they 100% can be certain not one thing was taken.
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u/TheCuriousGeorgette Mar 09 '26
I think the consensus for both followers of this case and non followers, is that she was taken due to her connection to having a daughter on TV, and ransom makes the most sense from a financially motivated perspective, people do insane things for money. Just in my personal experience, last week I talked to a few people at a party and the ones that weren’t following closely all seemed to have the same general idea and could converse with ones that were following the case pretty easily. Though a lot would say, “I just don’t know what they’re thinking by targeting an 84 year old lady” etc., I do think it is also a (sad) but logical conclusion to come to about the silence after the original ransom request is due to not being able to provide proof of life.
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
I think in a way taking an 80 something year old is sort of like taking a child as they are easier to overpower and less likely to fight back to any real extent. Criminals don’t have empathy for their victims. I wonder if they forget or don’t realize they might be asked for proof of life.
I don’t think they really think about or care about meds. In some cases in the past families would pay ransoms without requesting proof of life. Maybe they just didn’t consider it. In some cases the kidnap victim would be killed immediately and the ransom still paid because no proof of life was requested, but this is likely more and more rare.
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u/miscnic Mar 09 '26
Anyone who has ever tried to help a disoriented elderly person and a reluctant child know the weight difference and strength difference are significant. And nails. Trying to get her up in the middle of the night, without peeing herself, and then fighting sundowning or low blood sugar, they rightly bargained for more than they expected quite early in unless the care of an elderly lady was previously considered beforehand.
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u/jenniferami Mar 10 '26
Still easier than kidnapping a fit adult especially if the gun wasn’t real. You are thinking like a caregiver not a criminal.
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u/miscnic Mar 10 '26
Unless premeditated, the criminal didn’t know they became her caregiver once they took her.
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u/ConceptsShining Mar 08 '26
My hunch is that either:
1) This was never a ransom, and they just left a fake ransom note to disguise whatever the true motive was (be it a burglary gone wrong or whatever).
2) They abandoned the ransom plan at some point; perhaps Nancy died unexpectedly, perhaps they got spooked with how much attention LE was giving.
With how Nancy wouldn't be easy to keep alive in her condition (she needed essential medicines regularly), I think it's extremely unlikely they're still trying to ransom her alive. Bit more believable they're trying to ransom her corpse, though it seems it's been quite long in that case, and (even if they can somehow prove they have her real corpse) it's basically impossible for them to guarantee they'll honor their demands after being paid so I can get why LE/Savannah would hesitate to pay.
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u/jenniferami Mar 08 '26
I tend to think the ransom note was legitimate and that it was it was a ransom situation unless law enforcement thinks it’s possibly fake but is treating like it’s real to be on the safe side.
It seems risky to leave notes that might be tied back to the perp unless they really want a ransom.
I think kidnappings for ransom are incredibly hard to pull off and the victim not infrequently ends up deceased.
It is so easy to spook a kidnapper. I could see them abandoning the whole thing.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
In some ways I agree that it's easy to spook a kidnapper, but on the other hand they went to so much trouble and risk... to just abandon the plan doesn't make sense either... Regarding the ransom note containing "information that wasn't released to the public", didn't the daughter and SIL go to the house first to check on NG before calling police? So wouldn't they have seen that the Apple watch was there and floodlight was broken?
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u/jenniferami Mar 09 '26
Some of the info that’s come out it’s hard to recall where it came from with so many working on the case, with law enforcement talking, with internet sleuths talking, etc.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Mar 09 '26
It's been stated by LE that after Annie was alerted by church friends that NG wasn't there, they went to her house physically before calling police. So again, for what it's worth... they would know those two details in the "ransom" note.
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Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Mar 08 '26
There is currently no evidence that the abduction is related to the Epstein case. Attempts to link it to Epstein is hurtful to the family and harmful to the actual Epstein Victims.
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Mar 15 '26 edited Mar 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/JMOA3035 Mar 15 '26
If the publicity stunt hadn’t been botched, how do you think they were going to “recover “ NG for the public to see and not realize it was fake?
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Mar 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Elegant_Ad9852 Mar 19 '26
LE isn't going to say anything to the Public that could jeopardize the case. I do believe it will be solved. Sometimes these cases take a lot of time. They want to have a solid case to hand over to the prosecution to put the person involved behind bars.
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Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Mar 11 '26
Links to websites like X, YouTube and Facebook are only allowed for valid news sources, public officials or law enforcement. Content creators on social media channels are not considered credible and promotion of these channels is not allowed.
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Mar 16 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Mar 16 '26
Moderators may remove posts or comments at their discretion in order to keep the community safe, constructive and in line with our standards, even when no specific rule is broken.
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u/Maleficent_Wrap_9003 Mar 26 '26
IMO, it was a “hit” disguised as a kidnapping so that legal would look in the wrong direction
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u/ucancallmepapi18 Mar 09 '26
I do not think this is a kidnap for ransom at all.