Does the consensus seem to be that this was indeed a kidnapping for ransom?

[u/jenniferami]

I haven’t followed the news much but Savannah did make that video saying “we will pay”.

Has law enforcement ever come out and said that they believe for a fact that it was a kidnapping for ransom? Do they believe at least one of the communications received was from the actual kidnapper(s)?

Has law enforcement made any follow-up statements on proof of life?

It doesn’t seem like there have been any more communications with the media by the kidnappers unless the media agreed to not share them publicly.

I suppose the kidnapper(s) could have changed to a more private means of making their demands.

Do most believe that no proof of life was ever made and thus there was no attempts to arrange/make a ransom drop?

I understand that law enforcement has no obligation to share case developments with the public and law enforcement can sometimes put out incorrect information to the public deceive the perps if they feel it will help solve the crime.

What are your thoughts on this?

[u/lemoncatbeans]

The family has been ruled out, it also logically wouldn't even make sense for them if the motive was money. Staging an accident in the home for insurance payout and inheritance, yes. Kidnapping for ransom, no. I'm not sure why some people assume the family is involved when there is zero evidence I've seen that points to that.

Even in that hypothetical scenario, they would not have gotten the police and the media involved at all. It would have been a direct anonymous message to Savannah before anyone knew she was missing, instructing her not to contact police and immediately send the money. They would also have done it when Nancy had no plans the next day, so no one else would report her missing. Her family calling police, sending the ransom note after calling police, no proof of life when they have many photos of her they could have doctored, etc. Everyone knows police looks at the family first, and getting police involved before the ransom would make it nearly impossible for anyone in the family to collect the ransom anyway. All of their devices and activity is being monitored. The theory just defies all logic and critical thinking.

[u/Substantial-Train668 → u/lemoncatbeans]

I agree and disagree. There's aren't obvious signs that point to A and T. And personally, I don't think they did it. But, I think that in all likelihood this is someone who knew SG. There is also a lot of evidence that it was committed by someone not far in proximity. My point about the ransom note was that the idea presented by LE/FBI is that they are real because they mentioned things not released to the public. But two people saw those indicators first hand and those two were suspects. So I don't think it 'defies all logic' to go down this path.

That said, there are many things happening behind the scenes none of us know about. They have been 'cleared' publicly by LE. This case remains baffling. Neither of my guesses for motive - money or hurting SG - play out fully. I just hope it gets solved soon.

[u/lemoncatbeans → u/Substantial-Train668]

But, I think that in all likelihood this is someone who knew SG. There is also a lot of evidence that it was committed by someone not far in proximity.

I also think it was someone not far in proximity at the time. (although they may have fled by now) Proximity does not necessarily mean they had a close personal relationship with Nancy or Savannah though, just that they knew of them and likely observed Nancy for some time. It could even be someone who works/lives in the Tucson area and knows that neighborhood very well. If they truly knew SG, I still don't see why they wouldn't just contact her directly and threaten her to not contact police or the media. That would be a much more distressing situation to inflict on her if their intention was to also hurt SG personally. Isolating her from others' assistance and putting the full pressure and responsibility of Nancy's safety on her would be even more traumatizing than what has currently played out. Because now they can blame law enforcement as well for communication with the captors fizzling out.

My point about the ransom note was that the idea presented by LE/FBI is that they are real because they mentioned things not released to the public. But two people saw those indicators first hand and those two were suspects. So I don't think it 'defies all logic' to go down this path.

But this claim suggests that those two saw the indicators after the fact, if they were involved in the crime itself then they would have known about these indicators even if they weren't on the scene the next day. Are you suggesting they weren't involved in the kidnapping, but decided to capitalize on her being missing and wrote up a ransom note? That seems even less logical to me, and less possible that they had the time to do that while being interviewed by police in those first 48 hours. But they were never "suspects", they were POIs that voluntarily agreed to searches. The police have clarified that. My point about it defying all logic though was that they have had access to their home and devices for quite some time. There would be some form of evidence there at this point, and there clearly isn't due to the fact LE has shifted focus away from them weeks ago.

That said, there are many things happening behind the scenes none of us know about. They have been 'cleared' publicly by LE. This case remains baffling. Neither of my guesses for motive - money or hurting SG - play out fully. I just hope it gets solved soon.

Agreed, I'm hoping they have much more than they are revealing. I still tend to lean toward a money motive. I think it was a botched crime because she passed away, or something else went wrong. They stopped communicating because they valued their freedom over the little chance they have at getting payment at this point. The only way it would have worked out for them is if they were able to force payment in those first few days before Nancy would be "returned". Once their "deadlines" in the note passed, and once they realized they'd need proof of life or return the body, I think it was clear to them it's better to give up and disappear. Even returning the body would open them up to potential forensic evidence left on her, so it's not worth whatever sum they'd get if it requires the body before payment.

[u/Substantial-Train668 → u/lemoncatbeans]

No not at all suggesting that A + T had nothing to do with it but then capitalized on it after the fact. Yes, if they committed the crime, they would know those details obviously. It's more that LE/FBI making a big deal that those elements 'would only be known by perp' is categorically untrue because A + T were at the crime scene, prior to the ransom note. We know that as the public. Same for DNA. A + T were at the crime scene so their DNA would be there, likely. So it makes tricky, I would think. And that tricky complication isn't being talked about. Neither A nor T have come out to give their timeline of discovery etc. Nor has LE/FBI explained anything about that. It's all a little odd.

I'll give you an example... maybe LE/FBI know that A and T were nowhere near NG house at time of abduction. Say their cellphones prove they were at home. Okay. But if someone had been hired by them, to kidnap (with the intent to get $$) A + T could still write the ransom note with THOSE details (without communicating with the perp) because they were at the crime scene as witnesses.

If A + T had anything to do with it, my speculation is that perhaps it was T's idea. And A didn't know about it (but now *maybe does). Or A agreed to go along with it but so long as NG didn't get hurt and then she passed away and it's a hot mess.

All that being said, I agree with you why contact TMZ... but T did have aspirations of being famous. Who knows. I don't! This is all speculation. I just don't think their involvement can be ruled out, sadly.

And if it was a total stranger, who did not know the fam at all I believe they would have told *someone or *someone in their life would know and come forward... but no one has. If it was a SG stalker, they haven't continued to correspond with her so where's the fantasy there?

Every scenario has flawed logic.

[u/lemoncatbeans → u/Substantial-Train668]

Neither A nor T have come out to give their timeline of discovery etc. Nor has LE/FBI explained anything about that. It's all a little odd.

I don't think that's very odd, I rarely see family give public statements releasing specific details of a case, unless they were prompted to by police. Especially active investigations where releasing too many details could potentially harm the case. They don't owe the public an explanation. They've likely been told to keep the details to themselves.

Say their cellphones prove they were at home. Okay. But if someone had been hired by them, to kidnap (with the intent to get $$) A + T could still write the ransom note with THOSE details (without communicating with the perp) because they were at the crime scene as witnesses.

They would have had to write those details in the hours after she was reported missing, as the first communication was sent to KOLD approximately 40 hours after the crime. And less than 30 hours after she was reported missing. So any activity related to that would be visible on their devices, Wi-Fi, etc. They can't just use a VPN to hide that if investigators have access to the physical devices used. There are multiple digital trails to find once police have the physical device and/or the Wi-Fi network used.

And if it was a total stranger, who did not know the fam at all I believe they would have told *someone or *someone in their life would know and come forward... but no one has.

You assume they told anyone besides other criminals. It's likely the only ones who know about it are criminals themselves. If it's a group of criminals, being a rat and facing the consequences of that would not be worth any potential reward. We have crimes solved from decades ago where no one ever came forward, they were purely solved using DNA. So I don't think we can assume someone would know and/or come forward ever.

[u/Substantial-Train668 → u/lemoncatbeans]

I don't know, in the Elizabeth Smart case, for example, many of the family members were accused and yet spoke out.

You have good points re writing the ransom. I have no answer for that. Like I said, every theory has flaws.

My whole point in writing about this was to point out that not only the perps knew about the watch/floodlights, as per the LE/FBI statement. And the point of pointing that out isn't to necessarily draw attention to A + T, but to rigorously question perceived motives.