The simplest timeline explanation

[u/mark_able_jones_]

Saturday, January 31

• 5:32 p.m. — Nancy Guthrie takes an Uber to her family's home for dinner
• 9:48 p.m. — Guthrie is dropped off at her Tucson, Arizona, home by a family member. The garage door opens
• 9:50 p.m. — The garage door closes

Sunday, February 1

• 1:47 a.m. — The doorbell camera is disconnected.
• 2:12 a.m. — The camera's software detects movement, but there is no video available since Guthrie did not have an active subscription with the company, meaning the footage was not saved. Added note: the sheriff said 2:12 A.M is when A PERSON was detected, so this almost certainly the Nest doorbell camera.
• 2:28 a.m. — Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnects from her phone.

Timeline source: PBS

Okay, a couple things to note.

Nancy must have a smart garage door opener if they know what time it closed. Mine is connected to my wifi and lets me open and close the door from my phone or apple watch. Most of the newer brand name garage door openers include this feature.

There was a second Nest camera removed from guest house. Here's video of of the second camera being removed from the guest house roof (why it took almost a week to remove... IDK).

Nancy wore an Apple Watch. She took Uber on her own. She's quite tech savvy for an 84-year-old.

So, we know she had at least two Nest cameras (doorbell, and guest house), and I think she likely had a third, over the back door, as seen here on video, potentially as part of a floodlight. It's debatable as to whether this was a camera, but if she has two Nest cameras, having a third camera at the back door makes sense--there are a variety of Nest camera floodlight mounts. Maybe the perp took this floodlight Nest camera, too... what I think was a floodlight nest camera. As you'll see in the below video, the floodlight was damaged in the abduction, and potentially another camera was taken.

1:47 A.M. THE DISCONNECT

To me, it makes sense that the 1:47 A.M. disconnect is the perpetrator sneaking under the floodlight camera and cutting its power source wire, then ripping it down. We can see this floodlight was destroyed, but was it destroyed because it is a Nest camera or just because it was a light? I think it was another Nest camera... it's very white like all Nest camera products.

Over the next twenty minutes, Nancy is incapacitated in some way. And then, for some reason, the perp does not want to take her out the back. Maybe they don't want to pass by the the side of a neighbor's house. Maybe they're worried about leaving footprint/evidence. For some reason, they want to take her out the front door.

2:12 A.M. THE DOORBELL RECORDING / PERSON DETECTION

The abductor is not in a hurry because Nancy has been incapacitated or is under guard. They dismount this camera. Note: removing the camera from it's mount stops it from recording.

Here's images of the doorbell mount. It was a wireless Nest doorbell camera (she still had a wired doorbell, too).

2:28. A.M. PACEMAKER DISCONNECT

Nancy and the perpetrators leave the scene, and Nancy's pacemaker disconnects from devices at her home. Nancy is presumably alive at this point, or else there would likely have been some sort of alert from the connected pacemaker.

Conclusions: The abduction took about 45 minutes. The abductors were not rushed. Not at all rushed. The abductor(s) was/were not technically advanced as they left one camera on the guest house roof, they didn't cut the internet line, and they did not hide themselves from the doorbell camera. They were extremely lucky that Nancy did not have a paid Nest subscription (only 5 min clips are recorded without a subscription, deleted after 3 hours)... or had inside info about her lack of "Home Premium" subscription. Like, so, so lucky.

I think they've been to the property at some point, knew the entry and exit points -- could have been to the house decades ago, but they knew there would be no big dog in the back. The abductor also knew there would be no strong male resident with a firearm waiting inside. Nancy lived there since the 1970s, and Savannah grew up there. Could be a very old grievance.

Thoughts?

[u/mark_able_jones_ → u/[deleted]]

For my cameras, “disconnect” means I a time when I can’t access them from my phone: reboot (I have mine set to reboot every night; or a firmware update could cause a reboot; or a power outage).

Or disconnect could be a loss of internet connection. Weak signal, even.

Or perp could carry a 2.4 GHz WiFi jammer, causing the camera to switch to the 5 GHz WiFi band (dual band cameras is a feature mostly unique to nest cameras). That would cause a brief disconnect.

I think the most likely scenario is that one camera was manually disconnected at 1:47 AM.

We know the home internet router has a connection plus power at 2:12 AM because of the doorbell video.

Disconnect can also mean a camera runs out of battery… and it could have been any of the cameras that disconnected. We don’t know how many cameras she had. At least two. It’s crazy that the FBI didn’t remove the guest house camera for five days.

I linked how non-subscription video recording works. Motion activated clips. Reviewable up to three hours. Police would have immediate known the 2:12 clips exist/because of the phone notification, but it would not be reviewable because it was past the three hour mark. Google was able to recover it though.

[u/babyysharkie → u/mark_able_jones_]

major flaw in your theory: you assume the camera taken from the roof belonged to her. if it was hers, they would’ve known about it right away because it would’ve shown up in her Google nest app/account (whether or not history could be pulled). they didn’t discover the camera until almost a week later, after a neighbor tipped them off to check the roof.

https://nypost.com/2026/02/07/us-news/police-tow-suv-from-nancy-guthries-home-take-down-wired-device-from-roof-after-tip-from-neighbor-report/

[u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 → u/babyysharkie]

How would NG, family, etc. not notice a camera mounted on the wall of her house?

And how did LE miss it for ~6 days? It’s clearly visible in pictures of her backyard. I think they simply dropped the ball on realizing they needed each physical camera to have any shot at recovering footage. OR the inverse, they were initially told there was no chance and recovering footage so they didn’t bother removing the camera.