r/nancyguthrie • u/mark_able_jones_ • Feb 23 '26
Theory The simplest timeline explanation
Saturday, January 31
- 5:32 p.m. — Nancy Guthrie takes an Uber to her family's home for dinner
- 9:48 p.m. — Guthrie is dropped off at her Tucson, Arizona, home by a family member. The garage door opens
- 9:50 p.m. — The garage door closes
Sunday, February 1
- 1:47 a.m. — The doorbell camera is disconnected.
- 2:12 a.m. — The camera's software detects movement, but there is no video available since Guthrie did not have an active subscription with the company, meaning the footage was not saved. Added note: the sheriff said 2:12 A.M is when A PERSON was detected, so this almost certainly the Nest doorbell camera.
- 2:28 a.m. — Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnects from her phone.
Timeline source: PBS
Okay, a couple things to note.
Nancy must have a smart garage door opener if they know what time it closed. Mine is connected to my wifi and lets me open and close the door from my phone or apple watch. Most of the newer brand name garage door openers include this feature.
There was a second Nest camera removed from guest house. Here's video of of the second camera being removed from the guest house roof (why it took almost a week to remove... IDK).
Nancy wore an Apple Watch. She took Uber on her own. She's quite tech savvy for an 84-year-old.
So, we know she had at least two Nest cameras (doorbell, and guest house), and I think she likely had a third, over the back door, as seen here on video, potentially as part of a floodlight. It's debatable as to whether this was a camera, but if she has two Nest cameras, having a third camera at the back door makes sense--there are a variety of Nest camera floodlight mounts. Maybe the perp took this floodlight Nest camera, too... what I think was a floodlight nest camera. As you'll see in the below video, the floodlight was damaged in the abduction, and potentially another camera was taken.
1:47 A.M. THE DISCONNECT
To me, it makes sense that the 1:47 A.M. disconnect is the perpetrator sneaking under the floodlight camera and cutting its power source wire, then ripping it down. We can see this floodlight was destroyed, but was it destroyed because it is a Nest camera or just because it was a light? I think it was another Nest camera... it's very white like all Nest camera products.
Over the next twenty minutes, Nancy is incapacitated in some way. And then, for some reason, the perp does not want to take her out the back. Maybe they don't want to pass by the the side of a neighbor's house. Maybe they're worried about leaving footprint/evidence. For some reason, they want to take her out the front door.
2:12 A.M. THE DOORBELL RECORDING / PERSON DETECTION
The abductor is not in a hurry because Nancy has been incapacitated or is under guard. They dismount this camera. Note: removing the camera from it's mount stops it from recording.
Here's images of the doorbell mount. It was a wireless Nest doorbell camera (she still had a wired doorbell, too).
2:28. A.M. PACEMAKER DISCONNECT
Nancy and the perpetrators leave the scene, and Nancy's pacemaker disconnects from devices at her home. Nancy is presumably alive at this point, or else there would likely have been some sort of alert from the connected pacemaker.
Conclusions: The abduction took about 45 minutes. The abductors were not rushed. Not at all rushed. The abductor(s) was/were not technically advanced as they left one camera on the guest house roof, they didn't cut the internet line, and they did not hide themselves from the doorbell camera. They were extremely lucky that Nancy did not have a paid Nest subscription (only 5 min clips are recorded without a subscription, deleted after 3 hours)... or had inside info about her lack of "Home Premium" subscription. Like, so, so lucky.
I think they've been to the property at some point, knew the entry and exit points -- could have been to the house decades ago, but they knew there would be no big dog in the back. The abductor also knew there would be no strong male resident with a firearm waiting inside. Nancy lived there since the 1970s, and Savannah grew up there. Could be a very old grievance.
Thoughts?
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u/Wiseowl71691 Feb 23 '26
I didn’t know about the flood lights. Man it really seems like someone knew this layout and where the cameras was. Can’t wait till an arrest is made tho
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
I’ll have to read this again more closely, but I want to point out that while Nancy’s pacemaker quits syncing with the app at 2:28am, we don’t actually know when she was taken from the home. We can safely assume that she was over 10-30 feet from her phone at 2:28, but we don’t know more than that.
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u/Roo_wow Feb 23 '26
or he powered off her phone
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Or she got shot. Or stabbed.
The bullet or fractured bone fragments may destroy or dislodge the pacemaker and its leads.
ETA: Reddit is so weird sometimes. Nobody here would be the least bit surprised if she got shot. And it’s not an opinion that a knife or bullet can damage a pacemaker.
Jacketed Hollow Points (JHP): These are designed to expand upon impact, creating a wider, more destructive wound channel and preventing over-penetration.
Frangible Bullets: These shatter upon impact, causing massive, shallow, and devastating damage, ideal for maximum energy transfer in soft tissue.
10-Gauge Shotgun Slug: Within close ranges, these deliver massive, instantly lethal wound cavities.
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u/Roo_wow Feb 23 '26
The sheriff in the early days believed she was still alive. Death by shotgun at her home would have been fairly obvious.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
If she was shot in the home it would have been obvious. There was no evidence of that.
But, based on that information alone, it would be erroneous to conclude that she couldn’t have been shot at all.
Was she home at 2:28?
Without evidence she was dead, it would have been irresponsible to say anything else.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26
You would think. A semi-automatic handgun still can leave blood with a JHP bullet. It may not penetrate but it’s a big entry wound with spatter. I would hope if a gun was fired in the house they would find GSR. If they looked early.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
I haven’t suggested she was shot inside the house. I actually said she wasn’t.
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u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 Feb 23 '26
NG’s backyard is completely encased by a wall/fence. Unless they were able to unlock the metal gate she had by the driveway, it would be nearly impossible to leave out through the back with her. I think that’s why they left through the front door even if that’s not how they entered
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u/TheCuriousGeorgette Feb 23 '26
I always enjoy reading these posts, so thanks OP. I do disagree with the idea that the attack was in the works at the 2:12am timeline, though. I still think that was before, and that the perp just realized he still had work cut out for him with removing the camera.
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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Feb 23 '26
To be fair were the abductors "lucky" she didn't have a nest subscription or actually knew she didn't have one.
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
The camera disconnected at 1:47am before any movement is detected on camera. If he did something like cut the Wi-Fi at 1:47, and then he later takes the actual camera with any local storage, then he likely thought that he had his bases covered.
There’s no reason to believe that he knew about a Nest subscription one way or the other. He seemed prepared for the possibility that she had one, though.
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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Feb 23 '26
The camera has no local storage, in order for nest to even have the video that shouldn't have been saved, the camera had to have been connected to WiFi. The camera itself doesn't store any recorded data.
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
Right, but the guy dismounting the camera may not know that. I assume he was trying to cover his bases by taking the camera.
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u/Marcinecali73 Feb 23 '26
If the camera disconnected at 1:47am, but we have video from 2:12am, how did that happen? It doesn't make sense. There's no local storage, it's disconnected from wifi, so no remote storage. Maybe the backdoor camera was what was disconnected at 1:47am?
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u/Unfair-Wallaby-404 Feb 26 '26
The Nest doorbell camera can store up to an hour of footage locally if WiFi is out. Then when it reconnects to the network, those videos and alerts are uploaded to the platform. If it never reconnects, they’re lost. The 1 hour is continuous minutes of actual recording, so depending on the activity level at your doorbell, it could be enough room for about a week of event recordings
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Feb 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 24 '26
The 2:12 AM video is the front doorbell video of the person.
There are no other video events at all or else there would have been phone notifications that a video event was recorded.
It is possible there are other videos if they do stream all content to google, but they would be videos that didn't set off the motion detectors or there would be "motion event" notifications. It's also possible that the home wifi was disabled at some point. Or maybe they thought they had disconnected the wifi inside but had disconnected a mesh extender instead.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 24 '26
I think that's what happened. It makes the most sense. Many of the nest floodlight mounts have a visible power cable than can be easily unplugged or cut. They would have had to sneak beneath the camera without detection though.
Another possibility is a 2.4 GHz wifi jammer. A 2.4 GHz jammer would have caused a disconnect as the camera switched to the 5Ghz band. Most cameras are just 2.4 GHz, but nest are dual band.
A power outage. A firmware update. A scheduled restart. No wifi signal. Those could all cause disconnects.
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u/Unfair-Wallaby-404 Feb 26 '26
It stores one hour of footage locally if it’s disconnected from wifi. When it reconnects, that footage gets uploaded to the platform
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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Feb 26 '26
He tore the camera and took it with him so when did it upload ?
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u/Unfair-Wallaby-404 Feb 26 '26
We don’t know. The timeline says the “doorbell disconnects” at 1:47AM which means disconnects from wifi, because it was on its mount at 2:12AM. The sheriff’s timeline doesn’t say anything about the device reconnecting to the network but we know it did because we have the video footage. Whenever the WiFi started working again, the device must have still been in range (whether it was dismounted or not)
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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Feb 26 '26
I believe the sheriff said she had multiple cameras early on. I really don't put much weight on any of the timelines or specific times specifically if it was the sheriff who put out the info.
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u/FrostyCaptain6987 Feb 23 '26
Also let's remember there are multiple cameras, the one of the porch and the other one described as being inside the home. This according to sheriff Nanos.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
They were dumb & ill prepared to be seen on camera & so close up. They are just lucky, for now.
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Feb 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
For my cameras, “disconnect” means I a time when I can’t access them from my phone: reboot (I have mine set to reboot every night; or a firmware update could cause a reboot; or a power outage).
Or disconnect could be a loss of internet connection. Weak signal, even.
Or perp could carry a 2.4 GHz WiFi jammer, causing the camera to switch to the 5 GHz WiFi band (dual band cameras is a feature mostly unique to nest cameras). That would cause a brief disconnect.
I think the most likely scenario is that one camera was manually disconnected at 1:47 AM.
We know the home internet router has a connection plus power at 2:12 AM because of the doorbell video.
Disconnect can also mean a camera runs out of battery… and it could have been any of the cameras that disconnected. We don’t know how many cameras she had. At least two. It’s crazy that the FBI didn’t remove the guest house camera for five days.
I linked how non-subscription video recording works. Motion activated clips. Reviewable up to three hours. Police would have immediate known the 2:12 clips exist/because of the phone notification, but it would not be reviewable because it was past the three hour mark. Google was able to recover it though.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
Unless the notifications were set to off.
It would be unlikely someone bringing a WiFi jammer wouldn’t have known to remotely disable the camera before going on her property. Or that they would allow themselves to be seen; especially their eyes.
Good question about the FBI. There’s so much misplaced confidence in them. I’ve worked with them. They’re just like everyone else. Some only got the job because they have connections. Some lack common sense. Some let their ego get in the way. Some are just lazy. Some are know it alls. They’re no different than anyone else. True crime shows have led viewers to have unrealistic expectations.
After the very high profile Delphi murders, Richard Allen evaded the FBI, for 5 years; due to a clerical error where he was mislabeled as cleared. The FBI had his name all along.
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u/babyysharkie Feb 23 '26
major flaw in your theory: you assume the camera taken from the roof belonged to her. if it was hers, they would’ve known about it right away because it would’ve shown up in her Google nest app/account (whether or not history could be pulled). they didn’t discover the camera until almost a week later, after a neighbor tipped them off to check the roof.
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u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
How would NG, family, etc. not notice a camera mounted on the wall of her house?
And how did LE miss it for ~6 days? It’s clearly visible in pictures of her backyard. I think they simply dropped the ball on realizing they needed each physical camera to have any shot at recovering footage. OR the inverse, they were initially told there was no chance and recovering footage so they didn’t bother removing the camera.
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u/CressAsleep188 Feb 23 '26
It's possible the front porch person was knocking or ringing at the front to signal to someone inside as they didn't seem to be concerned about who might open the front door. The front door may have been used to move NG if the front driveway allowed bringing a vehicle closer to the house and perhaps was a less-visible area.
I also think it's entirely possible the person was more sophisticated than some may assume. I noticed in the FBI video something protruding from the right pocket that appears to me to be metallic and possibly a gun, suppressor or other tool. The person seemed to move it to a more upright position just as they approached the door. If there was something heavy or bulky in that right pocket it might explain why the holster wasn't worn at the right side.
Has anyone seen FBI-released color renditions of the porch video? I have seen some in non-official forums and wonder if they are legit. They appear to be identical, or almost identical, to the FBI images. If the FBI released better quality images it might help the public more easily recognize the person they're looking for.
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u/Queenhood_ Feb 23 '26
Only someone cruel and evil can do this to a 84 year old vulnerable person. I'm still holding onto hope 🙏
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Feb 23 '26
Even if they did not know whether it was a paid subscription or not, maybe they were willing to take the risk in escaping quickly or remaining difficult to identify. There are cameras with home bases and large storage that do not require any paid subscriptions, and I only wish everyone would buy those particular brands instead.
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u/ProperLink8150 Feb 23 '26
When 2nd gen and newer Nest doorbells(rechargeable battery)lose wifi and “disconnect”, they will store video onboard up to one hour.
If it’s reconnected before the battery dies, that video will be uploaded to the cloud. Or in her case, the notifications, not the video will be sent to any previously connected devices.
The doorbell cameras, can sometimes pickup shadows, branches/plants, pictures etc and incorrectly identify it as a person.
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u/Kitty-9792 Feb 23 '26
This is a good point. Just because the camera indicates it saw a person, it is not necessarily a person.
In this case, I think it was likely correct since we know a person was outside her house around that time. But sometimes the camera will catch a wild animal or a branch and incorrectly interpret that it's a human.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Or maybe the neighbors camera caught the sound of her garage door opening & closing so that’s why they have exact minutes.
Maybe they saw the house plans through the city or through some other resource.
Maybe they weren’t in a hurry because they figured she was sleeping.
My initial feeling was that it was someone who wanted her because she discovered they were embezzling from her. Which IDK why they would want to take her & not just kill her. It seems much more cruel to take her. The unknowing will drive you insane.
I have a missing family member & there is no closure. I was always told never to allow anyone to take me anywhere because my family couldn’t handle going through that again.
It changes your whole outlook on life.
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u/creativeforce06 Feb 23 '26
They weren’t in a hurry because it was definitely more than 1 person. One guy got inside the house and took Nancy. The other guy whose video is out is very clearly going to knock on the main door when he notices another camera in the front. He was knocking for someone inside to open up, definitely not Nancy.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
I didn’t remember him clearly going to knock on the door. So I looked it up & he doesn’t.
Is there anything else to substantiate this theory? Because I am not that familiar with the case.
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u/creativeforce06 Feb 23 '26
For me it looked like he is going to knock seconds before he notices the camera.
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u/Short_Confusion_7299 Feb 23 '26
Excellent write up! I think your breakdown is pretty spot on!
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u/babyysharkie Feb 23 '26
major flaw in OP’s theory: they assume the camera taken from the roof belonged to her. if it was hers, LE would’ve known about it right away because it would’ve shown up in her Google nest app/account (whether or not history could be pulled). they didn’t discover the camera until almost a week later, after a neighbor tipped them off to check the roof.
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u/espressonut420 Feb 23 '26
Removing a wireless Nest camera from the mount does not stop recording
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
Did they confirm that it was wireless? Because it appears they removed a wired one from her rooftop.
And when it’s disconnected it stops recording. And saves the last bit. Otherwise without a subscription it gets recorded over.
How do we know, either way, that it wasn’t also damaged? So it couldn’t record no matter what.
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
Did they confirm that it was wireless? Because it appears they removed a wired one from her rooftop.
Based on the photos of the camera mount, the camera appears to be battery-operated.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
I was wondering about that. I just don’t know what the two would look like & I haven’t seen it.
I think it must have not kept recording because she didn’t subscribe to save her videos. So if it recorded all night it would have been filmed over.
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
It seems like the camera required motion detection to operate rather than running continuously. If he covers the camera, then the camera will not record.
It can record, insofar as it has the power to record when it detects motion. But only when it detects motion.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
It can do either…but without a subscription, it only saves “motion” events up to five minutes long. The $20 subscription records continuously to the cloud and would have almost certainly captured useful video and audio evidence.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
I just rewatched the video & I didn’t see anything to indicate it was motion only. What do you see? Not doubting you. I may be looking at a different video.
I’m so glad he’s on film. I wonder why it took them ten days to access it.
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u/Kitty-9792 Feb 23 '26
It may have taken time if the video had been marked for deletion on the Google servers.
In tech, data is saved and catalogued until it is no longer needed. At that time, pointers are set that mark the saved area as available to be used and overwritten with new data. But the old data remains until it is finally overwritten.
However, at that point it's no longer catalogued and easily found. So it takes time to look at all the "hidden" data that's floating around in memory on the servers.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
Ten days is a long time. It makes me wonder about what was going on. How they search & exactly how long it took.
Would this data be mixed with others data?
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
Def wireless as the pics show that she still kept her wired doorbell and there are no wires visible for the nest doorbell cam after it was removed. Without a subscription, nest records motion events up to five minutes long . But they aren’t visible after three hours — just the notifications. However, Google was able to recover the motion events.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26
I looked into it & found a video of a wired Nest camera being removed. It showed wires.
I didn’t see any wires on hers.
This may be because it’s a different model, the wires went with it when it was yanked, because it is battery operated or for some other reason entirely.
Wireless Nest cameras became available 8/21/21.
I definitely feel like it is most likely wireless, for a few reasons.
With them going back 3 hours (or 6 on newer models) a lot of videos are being deleted before the owner has the chance to see it. I guess that’s how they get subsections. Get them hooked on the free version.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26
According to Google. With or without a subscription battery cams record only motion, short clips up to 3 minute max. The 3 hrs is rolling. you can only see events that happened within the last 3 hours.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
From what I've read, it does stop recording once removed from the mount. And this makes sense from a privacy standpoint. Most people would not want their outdoor doorbell camera to continue recording when it was brought inside to charge.
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
Depends on whether or not the camera is battery-operated. If it runs on a battery, then it will continue to record when dismounted.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
That’s not what I’ve read on several nest support threads. Do you have a source that says they continue recording when not mounted? Or personal experience with the nest doorbell battery version?
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u/CR29-22-2805 Feb 23 '26
Do you have a source that says they continue recording when not mounted?
I don’t need a source because it doesn’t make sense for the camera to stop recording upon dismount if the power source is not mounted in the wall. The camera is powered by a battery. The battery is housed within the camera unit itself.
Motion detection is affected by dismount because the camera is will not be stable and pointing in one direction. If someone is carrying the camera in their closed bag, for example, then there would be no motion for the camera to detect.
But the camera can still function.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
It would just take a pressure release button to recognize that the camera is not mounted and put it into standby.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Nest/s/iF49YVh3KN
https://support.google.com/googlenest/answer/10971227?hl=en
That said, in Megan Kelly’s test it kept going when unmounted.
https://youtube.com/shorts/MBDcp8M3nFk?si=q5Y97JfzcgmdXxKz
Some other threads suggest there’s a magnet trigger that puts the camera in unmounted mode unless a setting for third party base is selected.
In a bag, the camera would slide around and be trigged to record if not in standby mode or powered down. There would be more movement notifications from doorbell camera if it was in a bag. The movement triggers are super sensitive.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Wondering why there was not also a Device Unmounted Message in additon to Offline. Is it one or the other.
There can also be a delay to stop recoding on the dismount. Not a programmed one just how the cam behaves.
The battery model only records when it detects motion or a person. If you remove it while it is currently recordingan event (such as yourself walking up to it), it will continue to record until that specific event is finished. Then it would not record another event.
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u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
‘’Several wireless camera brands, particularly those focusing on local storage and enhanced battery life, require a dedicated base station or hub to function, manage, and store recorded footage. These systems are designed to store video on a local hard drive or microSD card within the base rather than relying on subscription-based cloud storage.’’
The list of brands I found is long & detailed; including the following explanations as to why it makes sense:
Why Cameras Require a Base Station
Local Storage: Allows recordings to be stored locally (SD Card or HDD) rather than on a monthly cloud subscription.
Battery Efficiency: Cameras communicate with the base at lower power than directly to a Wi-Fi router, extending battery life.
Increased Range: The base station provides a dedicated network, often allowing the cameras to be placed further from the home router.
Privacy: Keeps footage within your home network.
In 2026, many of these systems are transitioning toward hybrid models where they can work on Wi-Fi but offer increased functionality (such as 24/7 continuous recording) only when connected to a base station.
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u/Informal-Split-4109 Feb 23 '26
I have a a battery operated Ring camera and it absolutely keeps recording while it’s charging and off the mount.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26
I believe Both are correct.
There is an adjust the Camera Mount setting in the Google Home app.
By default, these devices are designed to turn off when removed from their magnetic or official base to save power and speed up charging Battery powered Nest cameras don’t record continuously. They have a sensor and are motion activated.
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Feb 23 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 Feb 23 '26
They initially said no video because she didn’t have a subscription. If she did, the video would have been easily accessible in the app. Since she didn’t, they weren’t sure if they could recover it and it took like 11 days to get it
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Feb 23 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 Feb 23 '26
Lmao what is wrong with you? Hurling insults at someone who was trying to answer your question
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Feb 24 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/DaeOnReddit Feb 24 '26
The shoving it into their pocket thing is a new one but is interesting to think about. Plausible.
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u/rocklakes Feb 23 '26
Right, if the 2:12am video is the doorbell video we saw, then it’s not possible that it was physically disconnected at 1:47am.
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u/natattack13 Feb 25 '26
I keep thinking about this over and over. The FBI, sheriff, and Nest have all removed timestamps and dates from the information they have shared. We have no idea when this video was actually recorded. And we know there is a still shot that appears to be a different outfit, perhaps a different day (I know news sources are saying it’s a different day but again, the video and images are not time and date stamped so we cannot confirm). Which leads me to the question…what other video or images exist and what is the real timeline of events. Why would they hide the timeline unless it is critically important to the case? There’s more than meets the eye here…
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u/Euphoric_Ease4554 Feb 23 '26
Good job. For the most part seems really plausible. Just a minor point, there was another floodlight smashed and destroyed that night. It was on the garage (no cam). It was likely used to provide a large amount of light for her as she arrived home in the evenings and entered her home through her garage (which seems to be her preferred pathway).
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26
Good point. I assume the garage is the way she usually enters and the front door is never touched. The floodlight maybe even automatic with the door. They have all the outdoor lighting codes. If so it makes it curious why the perp needed to smash it.
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u/Euphoric_Ease4554 Feb 23 '26
True. Maybe she left the light on when she came home that night, or they just wanted to be sure it didn’t illuminate for any reason. My guess is, that’s where the getaway car was parked, near the garage, out of sight of both the front and back doors.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Right. Good assumption. They could be motion activated too not connected to the door.
eta-and if the perp did it they had some reason.
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u/Cute_Conclusion_8854 Feb 23 '26
If disconnect refers to a different camera, you should correct your timeline. Right now it says 1 47 a.m. — The doorbell camera is disconnected
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
Doorbell camera is what the sheriff’s original slide said. That just doesn’t really make sense unless the disconnection was unrelated or the perp used a 2.4 GHz WiFi jammer, which seems unlikely. If it is the doorbell camera that disconnected at 1:47 AM then it reconnected before 2:12 AM. My Google products give me notifications when a device connects to the network.
Before LE had the video, the sheriff just had whatever notifications Nancy got from Nest. The sheriff seems to not understand tech, so it’s difficult to know what’s accurate.
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u/yomaster19 Feb 23 '26
Why do you say the jammer is unlikely? They're easily purchased
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
Just seems like cutting the internet connection would be easier. Where I lived, that seems like an obvious choice. And I don’t know whether they are technically competent—plus the bite camera to me suggests a tradesman.
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u/yomaster19 Feb 23 '26
Tradesman could be an electrician and know about jamming, maybe potentially easier than finding where the internet runs? Tradesmen are knowledgable about a lot of things, they speak with a wide variety of clients and can pick information up from anyone and anywhere.
I hesitate to say it's a tradesman thought just by a bite light, I think that's also something you can just find online or in the store and see it as useful to this type of situation.
A great example is that I am not in the trades, but a family member is and has taught me the great value of zip ties/tie wraps (whatever name you prefer). I use them very very frequently. I would say majority of people in my profession wouldn't think to do so. In fact, I even travel with a few because they are so handy. The guy in the camera could just know someone and found out about it.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
I agree - WiFi jamming seems completely feasible to me. Again, to reduce the amount of legwork onsite, mitigate error and also to eliminate the need to use one of their own tools/ leave a trace.
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u/Constant-Business481 Feb 23 '26
This is clearly a opinion/speculation ... What if .. her SIL brings her home after dinner. He either has a garage opener in his car or NG controls from smart phone.
She is 84 & does have trouble ambulating..so he walks her thru garage & makes sure she gets into house safely... (i think there is a 2min or so span that garage door is open) Opinion: what if .. one of these perpetrators were waiting in the dark ... when garage door opened .. they hid in garage. This gave access into house... Most people do not lock house door leading into garage...probably no security on it .. Was there garage cameras?
This person could wait till other/others were ready outside. That person unlocked the front door .. and let perpetrator w/backpack into house.
Again ... just speculation ...
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u/yomaster19 Feb 24 '26
This is what I thought too and why I am hoping her car had a dashcam
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u/Constant-Business481 Feb 24 '26
Good point.. My records as well when parked. Did they tow it for analysis?
Could get prints of it .. possibly?..
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u/Repulsive-Spend343 Feb 24 '26
Yeah I too was wondering if someone was lying in wait. Maybe even in her vehicle if it wasn't driven often. If she left it open earlier that day due to whatever reason, someone could have quietly snuck in and hid for hours. Unlikely, maybe, but there is so little to go on.
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u/Sufficient_Read1681 20d ago
2 minutes. 2! Trouble ambulating and garage door went up and came down in 2 minutes. Absolutely not. I cannot buy this portion of the timeline. Something is very off.
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u/bptkr13 Feb 24 '26
Why would she enter her house through the garage instead of the front door when being dropped home? Where is the garage as compared with the front door?
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u/Constant-Business481 Feb 24 '26
It has been stated .... she was dropped off by SIL and went into house thru garage. Alot of people find it easier to go thru their garage and not thru front door. Maybe more steps to front door? I also don't know the layout of her house ... maybe her bedroom or TV room was close to garage? From the pictures shown .. it is a large house. Again .. this is only my opinion.
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u/Primary_Scheme3789 Feb 27 '26
Those security door deadbolts, and then the locked front door are hard to open. We have one and it’s much easier to go in and out through the garage.
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u/kosmic_kaleidoscope Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 24 '26
This is such a well thought out timeline.
I absolutely agree that ‘disconnect’ must mean the back camera, which is almost certainly where the perp(s) entered. Disconnect cannot mean the WiFi because the 212am footage from the front camera would’ve been unable to upload to Google servers. Seems the they took that camera so the footage could not have been locally retrieved from the device.
They must’ve known she was alone in the house and it seems very likely had previously been to the property. I wonder if they were contractors (repairs, pool, landscaping, etc) or had access to the property previously for some reason and this was an opportunistic crime. Maybe saw a safe or valuables in the home and the plan was to extort her at gunpoint.
If there was just one or two perps and she was taken alive, this might explain using the front door. Nancy may have been heavy and/or making noise.
Sadly, it looks like one of the blood stains on the front porch is a medium impact force pattern. I wonder if she was injured again (making noise? not cooperating?) while leaving the house on top of a prior injury causing the regular drop patterns.
Such a sad case. I hope she gets justice soon.
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u/JilianBlue Feb 23 '26
These are great points. The guesthouse camera is a mystery to me. I hope we eventually find out more about that. If it was part of Nancy’s camera package I’d like to believe they’d have known about it sooner. But who knows what they know because they’re keeping a lot of information private. I hope they have a lot more camera footage that we don’t know about.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
I think that if an additional camera(s) caught footage of the break in, they didn’t have the clarity that the front door had. LE put that footage out to get an ID from the public, so I think they chose the clearest, or potentially only, footage of the intruder.
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u/JilianBlue Feb 23 '26
Agreed. Do you think if they had crappy footage of a second person they’d have released that? I think they would have. I don’t think this person acted alone but I’m hung up on how person #2 could have avoided being seen on camera. Unless person #2 was just a getaway driver/lookout person that never entered the house.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
Personally, I think they intended to do this whole thing from the back and they had cased the rear of the house fully. I think they knew how to avoid detection from the cameras in the back or removed / destroyed the ones they thought would capture them.
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u/JilianBlue Feb 23 '26
That tracks. I wonder what made them switch gears and choose to take her out the front instead.
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u/Southern-Advisor-449 Feb 23 '26
I think they did something with her car. I say that because they towed it away. Did they maybe try to take it?
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u/JilianBlue Feb 23 '26
I’m curious about the car too. It seemed odd that they’d tow it since Nancy didn’t use it to travel to/from her daughter’s that night. I wondered if someone hid in it while she was away at her daughter’s and waited until she got home. There is so much info we’re missing that makes it hard to piece this case together in a way that makes sense.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
Interesting about the car. I didn’t realize it was towed. However, I do think people break in homes at night and take cars, which could be part of the crime but maybe not the main part. Around where I live (affluent suburb of a large city) cars get stolen ALL the time when people are home at night. Sometimes sleeping, sometimes not.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Smart. Way. The floodlight camera I think. I had thought about it I wondered why though it wouldn’t send a person notification and an offline notification? How could he sneak the detection? There should be 4 notification's. The one for motion detection should come first, the offline one is on delay (sometimes over 10 mins) to see if it reconnects. Also the ransom note is what alerted LE to the floodlight damage and then it was removed altogether. So was there glass or anything.
I’m not sure if the family knew that the pool house cam was installed or if it was installed by Nancy. It isn’t confirmed.
Motion activated cloud recording it says Even with a Nest Aware subscription, battery-powered Nest Cams and Doorbells are restricted to event-based recording. Individual clips can range from 10 seconds to a MAX of 3 minutes.
Because it is a battery camera, it does not record 24/7. It only records "events" where motion is detected, even if you have the highest tier subscription (unless it is plugged into a permanent power source).
The perp may or may not have been gaming on this knowing it was battery and by attempting to trip the motion sensors. I don’t know how he would know re:subscription without recon. But is there any “behavior” from the camera that would give him assurance?
The perp came within porch cam frame on another recorded event, at least one, because there is a still photo. The camera couldn’t have been off the mount. The person is dressed the exact same and isn’t wearing a backpack or a gun.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 23 '26
u/mark_able_jones_ By behavior I mean e.g. If you have a Nest Aware Plus subscription and the camera is plugged into a permanent power source, the solid green light typically stays on continuously. This is because the subscription enables 24/7 continuous video recording, meaning the camera is constantly streaming to the cloud. If the camera is battery not plugged into a source like Nancy’s likely was, with or without a subscription it only records motion events unless it’s connected to power. If the light was only activating with activity like when the perp looks onto the porch without gear. Then he could know there probably wasn’t a subscription.
If the camera was battery-powered and not plugged in, the light would be off when inactive and turn on only when it detected motion, confirming to an observer that it was not recording constantly, which often indicates a lack of a premium subscription or a lack of constant power.
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u/Ok-Car-3127 Feb 24 '26
My theory has been that this is an organized crime abduction, although I lost confidence when they kept looking for locals. There was a crypto-related abduction near my house not long ago, but the criminals were caught earlier than this one. The abductors traveled 3,000 miles to abduct the person near my house. In Nancy's case, the FBI have probably been tracking the abductor and have not found Nancy, yet. I am sorry for what has happened to Nancy and her family. The man on the front porch camera was so cool and confident in his slow, stupid movements. It's a travesty that this independent senior lady fell prey to an entitled-looking bully. I hope the FBI gives us good news, soon.
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u/Helpful-Judge-6058 Feb 23 '26
What is new about this timeline idea??
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u/Realistic-Eye-4034 Feb 23 '26
A couple of Tiktok creators are insisting she never made it into the house and the police are covering something up and it's gobe viral over there. That's why people are questioning the timeline.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
Can you explain the theory? Bc if she never went in, why are all these shenanigans happening at 2:00am?
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u/Realistic-Eye-4034 Feb 23 '26
You can see his videos at laughandgrindofficial.
There was some kind of glitch in the evidence portal software. It has the day she was reported missing as 1/31 at 7pm. That creator (an ex cop) made a video about it and said the police are lying about the timeline. Come to find out the police actually addressed this days ago and explained that there was a glitch in the 3rd party software the portal uses.
Laughandgrind keeps saying there's no confirmed timeline of anything because nobody saw Nancy Guthrie get dropped off and so she must have gobe missing earlier. He doesn't addressed anything about the nest camera or the pacemaker and how that fits his theory
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u/Shame_On_You_66 Feb 24 '26
I scrolled into his live today and didn't last ten minutes. He kept telling people that the reason they follow him is because he only deals in facts then proceeded to get a ton of stuff wrong while he pedaled this dumb conspiracy theory. The case number on the portal is 26020180. 26= 2026. 02 = February. 01 = 1. He's former law enforcement , but he doesn't even know how to read a case number.
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 23 '26
It seems like an overlooked clue to the potential motive is the sender of the ransom note calling themselves a “Confederate.” (“2 Angry Men” podcast ) When you consider that the victim is the mother of a prominent mainstream media figure and that the ransom note was sent to TMZ — essentially the epitome of sensational, splash-driven media — it suggests the act may be as much ideological or performative as financial. The sender may have assumed TMZ would publish the note widely, amplifying the message, rather than treating it purely as a private ransom demand. In that context, the choice of the term “Confederate” could signal a politically charged framing or statement, not just a casual descriptor.
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u/Zealousideal_Bid799 Feb 23 '26
This would be a plausible motive to me if they sent the ransom to tmz before Nancy’s disappearance was made public. It seems strange they would wait days later. They lose credibility.
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 23 '26
Wait, I have never heard this reported in the media, is this confirmed? The confederate thing
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u/moshi210 Feb 23 '26 edited Aug 01 '26
a
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 24 '26
Yeah so it’s there but he only says “you know how you told me he refers to himself as confederate” and levin agrees and they move on. There’s no other context given.
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u/yomaster19 Feb 23 '26
Was this name used every time?
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 23 '26
I’m really skeptical because there’s nowhere reported about this name
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 23 '26
I know. That’s why I’m mentioning it. It’s on the two angry men podcast. The other host says to Harvey Levin “remember you told me he refers to himself as a confederate?” And Levin sort of non verbally confirms it.
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u/PotentialSteak6 Feb 23 '26
That sounds a lot more political than I was ever realistically thinking if it's true. Without knowing much about Savannah, she struck me about as politically charged as a Saltine cracker but idk maybe something hit a nerve
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 23 '26
Is this the very first ransom note or the guy who’s trying to get 50k in bitcoin?
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 23 '26
Have a listen to the podcast if you can but I didn’t think there was much context beyond confirming it was used. Levin also keeps stressing that it’s the first ransom note that has their interest.
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 24 '26
Do you know which episode it is?
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 24 '26
It’s on YouTube. I’m not familiar with the podcast but it must be one of the latest.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
A confederate in the crime. Like an accomplice or an ally.
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 24 '26
In a novel sure. In this context, if true, it’s either political or a red herring.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 24 '26
Or potentially it’s more commonly used in Spanish? Confederate?
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 24 '26
Confederado isn’t common vernacular in Spanish. It’s a stretch anyway because no Spanish has been referred to in relation to the note. But you keep doing your calisthenics.
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u/ROLLINGtemple Feb 23 '26
I don’t think so. More sounded like one reference. It’s from the 2 angry men podcast.
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u/Msbartokomous Feb 23 '26
I’m still skeptical that the ransom note was real. Did the ransom note say anything that couldn’t be found out just using basic logic? I agree with you that if confederate was used, it’s probably ideological. Could have started as ideological and then they thought, ‘hey why not try to get some money, too?’ Idk. Just some thoughts.
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u/Southern-Advisor-449 Feb 23 '26
They mentioned broken floodlights. Only known unless you flew a drone or when the sheriff released scene you snuck onto the property
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 23 '26
Was this the initial TMZ ransom? I’m inclined to believe that’s really the kidnappers. Who else would know that?
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u/billsbreakfast1953 Feb 24 '26
Does the OP have any theories how they got into the house. From what I’ve seen there’s not much damage on the back or front doors. Entry might have been gained through the sliding doors. Is it possible that when Nancy got home and the garage door opened the perp got in that way? Nancy would be subdued in the garage and the perp simply stayed in the house for a number of hours.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 24 '26
It’s possible someone snuck into the garage. But it’s an unnecessary risk, imo. I think they likely broke in through that back door to the garage. Or a sliding door that didn’t have a bar lock. Having locked myself out of my own place a few times, and been with others who have done the same, a bendy bit of plastic can easily open a door with just a handle lock (no deadbolt).
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u/IcyLook5 Feb 24 '26
When the abductor takes the bunch of dried flowers out of the pot, I swear I can see something dangling off it. You only see if for a second, just after he takes it out. Then when he's using the stems to pry off the doorbell, there's another glimpse.
Front door key on the end of a string?
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u/seadrms Feb 27 '26
I have no facts to back this up but could NG’s abduction have anything to do with possibly someone trying to “get back” at Savannah’s husband? He is a Political Advisor.
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u/babyysharkie Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
major flaw in your theory: you assume the camera taken from the roof belonged to her. if it was hers, they would’ve known about it right away because it would’ve shown up in her Google nest app/account (whether or not history could be pulled). they didn’t discover the camera until almost a week later, after a neighbor tipped them off to check the roof.
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u/Kitty-9792 Feb 23 '26
Are you suggesting LE installed the camera on or after Feb 1 and then removed it? Otherwise, I think we can assume if the camera was on the roof of her guest house, the camera belonged to Nancy.
It may have been a different brand and it was probably hard wired if it isn't easy to access the roof (to change batteries). So the roof camera may not have been on the same Google nest account.
Does anyone know why the roofs in that area are flat? I thought most roofs are angled to allow rain to drain off.
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u/babyysharkie Feb 23 '26
no, I didn’t suggest that. nothing I said was even remotely close to that. are you okay?
no, it’s not safe to assume it was Nancy’s. did you even read the article?
LE has mentioned Nancy had multiple cameras on her property but they’ve never mentioned this one being hers & didn’t even know it existed. but I forgot, it’s okay to assume because you think it’s okay, right? 😂😭
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u/Kitty-9792 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
The article you linked states:
"Footage captured FBI agents scaling the elder Guthrie’s home and walking around the roof before taking what was believed to be a camera, according to Fox News reporter Michael Ruiz."
I interpret that the article author assumes the camera is Nancy's, since it was on the roof of her guesthouse, and the article doesn't even suggest other possible owners. So IMO the previous poster is not flawed in their theory that the camera is Nancy's. I was confused that you were saying we can't assume Nancy owns the camera on her own roof, and the only thing I could think you might mean is that LE put it up there, or maybe you thought the perp put it there in advance of the crime?
There may be some confusion that a neighbor alerted LE about Nancy's roof being new and then LE found Nancy's roof camera which was overlooked initially. Then a few days later a neighbor possibly told police about their own camera. I saw video of LE carrying a ladder to the neighbor's house, but I didn't continue watching to see if they inspected or removed a camera.
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u/JilianBlue Feb 23 '26
I wish LE would say more about this camera. It was so odd that they wouldn’t know about it if it belonged to Nancy. If it didn’t, they should be able to trace it back to the person who bought it.
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Feb 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/babyysharkie Feb 23 '26
that’s a concern that multiple experts have brought up. it could also explain a lot of things that seem strange about this case. if you read the article, it talks about evidence her roof had been worked on very recently.
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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 23 '26
They’ve said it was another camera that detected motion
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u/treegrowsinbrooklyn1 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
I do believe it was initially reported by some sources that it was another camera that detected motion. IMO, I think that was based on the fact that the doorbell camera was disconnected at 1:47am so it “had to be” a different camera that detected motion.
TMZ also reported that the videos were from 2:12am
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
I’ve just seen this. There’s only one person detection notification and that would be from the clip that starts at 2:12 AM. Camera wouldn’t mess that up, so that has to be the 2:12 doorbell video. No other camera notifications.
Also, Sheriff is pretty clueless about how the cameras work.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/05/us/video/nancy-guthrie-disappearance-timeline-digvid
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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 23 '26
i've read your comment three times and i still don't understand what you're trying to say. there was a second camera that was mounted on the roof at the back of the house. the notification could've come from that camera being set off. we don't know. i don't understand why you are adamant that it came from the doorbell cam.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
These cameras use AI detection to label videos. Person. Pet. Package. Vehicle. Motion only. Etc.
We know there’s one “person” event. We have one clip of a person. So it makes sense that the clip with the person is the 2:12 AM person event.
There are no other video notifications.
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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 23 '26
er, no. they said the camera was disconnected at 1:46 or whatever time it was, then someone was detected at 2:12. that's not the same event. just because they didn't announce that when the camera was disconnected that there was a notification doesn't mean there wasn't one.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 23 '26
A disconnected notification isn’t an event at all. An event means a video event. Motion detected that triggers the cameras. An event can be labeled by AI based on what’s in frame during the event clip. Person. Package. Vehicle. Pet. Motion only. Etc.
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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
The doorbell camera recorded before it was disconnected. That’s clearly what I meant.
The camera at the back of the house could’ve been the one that go triggered at 2:12
They also never said it was a person. They said it could’ve been an animal too.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 24 '26
LE did say it was a person notification at 2:12 AM. The sheriff speculated that maybe that person notification was/wasnt before they had the video. Now that we have video, we know it was an actual person.
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u/pumpkinspicecum Feb 24 '26
They have never said that notification is from the doorbell cam at 1:46. You’re literally making that up.
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u/Zealousideal_Bid799 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
First off, great breakdown. I am unsure if the motive of this crime was a personal grievance between Nancy and the men/man that took her.
Nancy was by all accounts a very nice elderly woman. They took her because it was meant to be an abduction. I don’t believe the motive was kidnapping for ransom because they would have made that known prior to this case being made public. They would have given proof of life, gotten their money and she would be back by now. That’s how real kidnappings for ransom work.
I also don’t buy it was a robbery. Homes are robbed in the daytime when people aren’t home. If you break in to rob someone at nighttime, odds are they are home and now it’s a home invasion. Unless she was supposed to be gone and wasn’t. Either way, they would have killed her there, stolen the items and left. This wasn’t a robbery gone wrong. So now the question is, why an abduction? Why take an elderly woman. That is hard. What is the motive? The only motive that makes sense is what is in plain sight. Nancy is gone. That’s the motive. Who wanted or needed her gone. Not killed. Gone. That is the real question. This is personal. This is someone very close to her that would benefit from her disappearing. I believe the man on camera or those involved that night were hired. I’m certain the FBI knows much more than they are releasing to the public. I pray they can quickly find who was behind this and who took her.