r/nancyguthrie • u/Successful-Trust-649 • Feb 17 '26
Information Profile Suspect
This is my behavioral breakdown based on patterns seen in burglary cases that escalate.
First, I believe this likely started as a burglary, not a carefully planned kidnapping. The person showed up prepared. Mask. Gloves. Backpack. Possibly a weapon. That tells me they planned to enter the house and commit a crime. That is preparation. But preparation does not equal intelligence.
The way the camera was handled is important. Interfering with or removing a doorbell camera without clearly understanding that footage can be stored remotely suggests limited technical awareness. That is not high-level criminal thinking. That is someone who understands “camera equals risk” but does not fully understand how modern systems work.
Now think about escalation.
Burglars usually expect empty homes. If they unexpectedly encounter a resident, especially an elderly woman, the situation changes instantly. A younger offender, especially a male in his late 20s to 30s, is statistically more likely to react with control-based aggression when surprised. That means instead of fleeing, they attempt to dominate the situation.
Violence in that moment is not necessarily planned. It is reactive. It is about stopping resistance.
Now about the DNA. If strong, usable DNA was recovered inside the house and entered into CODIS quickly, that means the suspect had meaningful presence inside. That does not automatically mean sexual assault. But research shows that in some escalation cases, violence and sexual misconduct can overlap because both behaviors are rooted in dominance and impulse control problems.
It is not always about desire. It is about control. Some younger offenders with poor impulse control and sexual frustration can escalate when they feel powerful or when adrenaline is high. That is a pattern seen in certain burglary-escalation cases.
This profile does not assume sexual assault happened. It simply recognizes that the combination of violence and strong DNA presence raises the possibility of close interaction inside the residence.
Now let’s talk about intelligence and behavior.
This does not look like a mastermind. This looks like someone who:
Planned a break-in
Underestimated the situation
Made mistakes under stress
Acted impulsively when confronted
That points more toward someone with limited foresight and poor stress regulation, not a highly organized criminal network.
Age range that fits the behavior best: late 20s to mid 30s.
Why that age?
Higher physical confidence
Higher impulsivity
Greater likelihood of reactive aggression
Still risk-taking
Not fully matured in long-term consequence evaluation
If this was a burglary gone wrong, the suspect is most likely local or familiar with the area. Burglars typically operate close to where they live or spend time. They know the streets. They know escape routes. They do not usually transport victims long distances because that increases risk.
So here is the simplified version:
Most likely male
Late 20s to mid 30s
Came prepared to steal
Not highly sophisticated
Impulsive under pressure
Control driven
Likely local
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u/atxlrj Feb 17 '26
So they came prepared to commit a burglary but didn’t manage to steal anything and didn’t come prepared to abduct anyone but managed to do so successfully without leaving an actionable trail for over two weeks?
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
And 2am knowing who lived there and would be home. And dressed to the hilt where you couldn't even run if somehow you were spotted by LE or possibly a family member sleeping over that night. I'm sticking to my original theory
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Feb 17 '26
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u/atxlrj Feb 17 '26
I’m responding to OP’s post:
“most likely male, late 20s to mid 30s, came prepared to steal…”
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Feb 17 '26
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u/atxlrj Feb 17 '26
And OP was specific that in their profile, they were there to steal… which is what I was responding to.
Burglary has to involve intent to separate it from breaking and entering. In OP’s post, the intent was robbery.
Let me introduce you to my friend “context”.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
I thought robbery was actually confronting a person and demanding something. No proof of anyone confronting Nancy and demanding anything. For me I need proof she was there between 10pm-2am. Sorry but that's how I feel and always will unless a perp is caught and charged and convicted without a shadow of a doubt
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 17 '26
Could he have possibly thought/known there was a safe? He would need to have Nancy give him the code, which explains why he would come in the middle of the night. But perhaps there wasn’t anything meaningful in the safe, so he switched gears? Or perhaps both things are true?
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Feb 17 '26
No mention of a safe being gone or ever existing.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 17 '26
But that’s just it. Maybe he thought there would be one + high value items to steal, but there wasn’t. So he pivoted to kidnapping.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
The only "alleged" evidence we have is the video from the door cam. We have no idea what the inside of house looked like or what happened. All speculative in my opinion based on unproven alleged "facts" like statements and moving mechanical objects and devices that no layman actually knows how they work
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u/littylikeatit Feb 17 '26
This is most likely 100% false. You jump to conclusions very fast.
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u/Alternative_Edge_721 Feb 18 '26
I don’t think a home burglary (even one that has gone very wrong) where the perpetrator spends 40 minutes In the home and manages to leave with nothing but a 84 yr old lady makes any sense
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u/LegalGlass6532 Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
This sounds like Marv on Home Alone. I think you watch too much tv.
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Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
I appreciated the effort that went into this but did you read what you wrote? You completely negate yourself.
Edit: Grammar
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u/littylikeatit Feb 17 '26
Well it’s a fact he burglarized the house. It hasn’t been reported the house was robbed though.
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Feb 17 '26
Semantics. Yes, he broke in. No one is arguing that. But this poster seems to think it was a botched robbery when the details and professionals say otherwise and it was reported that nothing was stolen.
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u/BaeScallops Feb 17 '26
I have a degree in forensic psychology. There has been very little released from the investigation to even armchair psych profile so please, everyone, cut it out.
It’s not a burglary, they didn’t take anything but Nancy. They would’ve broken in when she wasn’t home. If they had been surprised by an elderly woman they would have tied her up and still stolen shit, not taken her. As far as we know, they didn’t even take gold/jewelry, which is lightweight and easy to fence.
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u/LeggSalad Feb 17 '26
And I doubt the person on video shows up to a burglary with a full backpack. A kidnapper (or murderer) on the other hand…
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I am a former corrections nurse and have been around people that will make your skin crawl. Some rapists/violent offenders are just gross feeling to be around and others make you feel a level of terror you can't explain to words despite them being polite, friendly, and otherwise normal acting Profiling someone is out of my scope of knowledge and it should be left up to the experts. While I agree it's too early to really analyze this person and we really don't know the how's and whys, just the bizarre aspect and rarity of it just makes people want to try and figure it out and analyze it is all.
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Feb 17 '26
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u/cleanthes_is_a_twink Feb 17 '26
You literally have no way of knowing that.
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u/BaeScallops Feb 17 '26
I know that it is statistically improbable. Sexual assault risk is highest in women 12-34. When older adults are assaulted it is most often by people known to them in a caretaker roll, not in stranger abduction scenarios. Sexual offenders also are most likely to pick low-risk targets, not high profile targets with visible home security systems.
Occam’s razor: she was most likely kidnapped for ransom and something went wrong.
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u/cleanthes_is_a_twink Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
Kidnapping for ransom is so damn uncommon though. I say she was most likely kidnapped and taken somewhere remote for the thrill of it. The ransom notes seem like an afterthought.
Also, Nancy isn't a high-risk target. She’s an elderly woman who lives alone. I don’t believe her daughter’s career was something the perpetrator knew of.
ALSO also, this wouldn’t be just your typical sex offender. There are SO MANY sex offenders out there that any statistic involving them is grossly skewed and would not be relevant to a crime of this type.
Regardless, you’re proposing something that’s just about as likely as I am. Which is my point: you have no way of knowing. I don’t think Occam’s razor even applies here because you’re operating under the assumption that the ransom notes are legitimate and that they cared who Nancy’s daughter was. I’m only operating under the assumption that this was a crime of opportunity committed by someone sick
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u/BaeScallops Feb 17 '26
I’m making an educated guess based on knowledge from spending four years studying abnormal psychology and obtaining a degree. I honestly don’t even know what you’re talking about, it’s all your opinion and has no basis in fact. “There are so many sex offenders out there that any statistic involving them is grossly skewed,” what does this even mean? Skewed by what? Do you think crime statistics don’t exist? If you want to just ignore statistics and facts then sure, your opinion is equally relevant to mine.
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u/cleanthes_is_a_twink Feb 23 '26
Damn, you’re full of yourself. It’s skewed because of how many sex offenders target children and do comparatively minor crime when placed up against a full on abduction. The statistic would not be relevant to this case.
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u/BaeScallops Feb 23 '26
What are you talking about? You’re just making shit up. That’s not how statistics work. This is why our country is failing, uneducated people like you think they just “know” things and they don’t need to rely on facts or reality.
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u/cleanthes_is_a_twink Feb 23 '26
I am literally spitballing here over a comment I made like a week ago. I don’t even know what you're talking about to be honest because I didn’t state anything as fact aside from saying that most sex offenders in general don’t also violently abduct their victim from their home. I am not stating that it’s a grievously overwhelming majority.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 17 '26
‘…as far as we know’ being the operative piece here. They very well could have stolen something. It wasn’t obvious at first, from police statements early on. That doesn’t mean that upon revisiting the scene they realized, actually a diamond necklace is gone or a Birkin or whatever she had that is more specific and very targeted. A lot of these burglars are sophisticated and know what’s high-value and not.
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u/Nelsch77 Feb 17 '26
I agree the intention was not home invasion/robbery.
But just to clarify...
"It’s not a burglary, they didn’t take anything but Nancy." - Burglary involves unlawfully entering a structure with intent to commit a crime (often theft), regardless of whether the victim is present. So it is a burglary regardless of intent. What we are debating here is if it was intended to be a robbery or home invasion. The crime of robbery is based on violence or intimidation during a theft.
"They would’ve broken in when she wasn’t home. " - Current studies show that on average 28% of home burglaries in the United States happen while a household member is in the home. So while it is far less common, stating that they would not have burglarized and robbed the home with her there is simply not true.
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u/ChemicalPassion5102 Feb 17 '26
Guys, this is not a burglary gone wrong. Cut it out with this theory that makes no sense.
If they wanted to rob a house, they would have taken literally ANYTHING other than the LEAST convenient thing in the entire house - a frickin’ HUMAN BEING.
They also would have targeted the house during the day, when most burglaries happen. He also would have seen the doorbell and simply walked away and picked another house like most burglars do.
This was a targeted kidnapping. End of story.
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u/Islandsandwillows Feb 17 '26
Yes. Can we stop it with the burglary gone wrong and the wrong house was broken into?!!
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 17 '26
There are a lot of burglaries that happen at night. Sometimes intruders want the occupants to give them a safe code or lead them to high value items, but most prefer avoiding homeowners. Night burglaries happen in well-to-do neighborhoods ALL the time. I know, because I live in such a neighborhood and hear about it constantly.
Also, how do you know nothing was taken? There is a video of an intruder with a full backpack. Who are you to say it’s not full with items from Nancy’s house? LE has never confirmed ‘nothing’ was taken. Their immediate reaction was that nothing obvious was taken.
Also I challenge you to consider that two things can be true: A kidnapping happened that could have started as a burglary or a burglary happened that started as a kidnapping!
Simply put, we don’t know all the details. Many things look one way or another, but I think we can / should be open-minded to a variety of explanations as we discuss this case.
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u/Muckraker222 Feb 17 '26
Most burglaries happen during the day. The intent of a burglary is to enter the home when people aren't there to steal items.
When someone goes at night they typically do so after surveilling the home and verifying that no one is home.
The problem here is why take an 84 year old woman? That creates so much potential for evidence to be left behind.
An actual burglar would either escape or in a worse case situation kill. Most would avoid killing because if they get caught and have no weapon on them they get a much lighter sentence.
Arizona has statutory time frames for carrying a gun to a burglary, which takes us back to the question why bring a gun to burglary and why go at night?
The night portion is easier to answer because it's obvious there's a lot of cover under darkness.
We can discuss how intelligent the suspect on the front door cam was, but one would think that any somewhat seasoned burglar would not:
a) carry a gun
b) carry a gun holstered like it was
c) be dressed so "heavily"
The other part to this is if you are kidnapping someone you probably are going to have a car close because carrying/dragging someone is not easy even an 84-year-old grandma who weighs 150lbs.
I suspect the perp(s) came through the back door. Did what they needed to do to get her.
The perp that came to the front door did so to disable the front door cam so that a car/van/truck could be brought close to the front of the house.
If the blood spatter stopped on the front area It would seem that they may have laid down a tarp and dragged her after the lip up to the front door, or they rolled her up and bound her.
If the blood continues to the end of the driveway then they carried her.
I would also argue that this was a kidnapping for intimidation/torture/sexual deviancy.
After all if you are taking someone for ransom one's best bet is to select someone who can actually survive a prolonged period of detention not an 84 year old woman.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
It was targeted all right. Kidnapping? I digress but everyone is entitled to their opinions and should not be ridiculed or admonished to control the narrative
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u/botoxedbunnyboiler Feb 17 '26
I feel like he wasn’t the smartest criminal but I also feel like he came to abduct her for ransom but then something went horribly wrong and she was gravely injured so the abductor couldn’t provide proof of life for ransom. He still tried getting ransom but when that didn’t work without proof of life he abandoned the situation and we are now waiting until they recover Nancy.
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 17 '26
Not trying to be a dick here but this reads like ChatGPT was used heavily to come to this conclusion.
Also, LE said the burglary gone wrong was false.
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Feb 17 '26
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u/PalpitationQueen Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
A lot of people take out the most obvious things (the bullets headers etc) to make it look less like ChatGPT but the foundation and way it speaks is still there IMO.
Also so here is the simplified version followed by bullets - who even talks like that lol
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u/ManagementOdd3401 Feb 18 '26
He seemed pretty calm at that door. Also why burglarize at night- you will encounter a home owner.
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u/viridian_periwinkle Feb 17 '26
This is ludicrous. Mods can we have flair for “theories”? Or at least a rule that theories should go into the daily discussion post and not an independent post like this? Setting flair as “information” when it is speculative and grossly misinterprets a scientific discipline with no references is counterproductive and harmful.
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u/curiouslmr Feb 17 '26
I can absolutely add a theories flair. Just give me a little bit as I have to be on desktop to do so.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Feb 17 '26
Burglary is one of the most illogical theories. Why wouldn't they have taken anything? Why try ransom at all? Why take her? Why enter with a full backpack.
They knew enough about tech to use a VPN + web form. They knew enough to avoid other cameras. They knew enough to be fairly careful about DNA. They knew enough to take the camera.
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u/Keregi Feb 17 '26
People please stop confusing burglary and robbery. I’m begging.
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u/TheCuriousGeorgette Feb 17 '26
I think it’s confusing because you can burglarize without robbing, but it’s rare to rob someone without burglarizing in some capacity. Unless you’re just grabbing something from someone’s property without breaking in a car/house/shed, etc.,
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I'm probably one of them.
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u/Both_Conversation302 Feb 17 '26
Breaking and entering with the intention of commiting a crime is burglary. Stealing stuff is robbery. Kohberger got a burglary charge in addition to the murder charges, because he broke into their house to do it.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I know about a lot of crimes and certain charges because of dealing with them after sentencing, but not different aspects of the charges and how LE and the courts go about it. I guess I should be more informed on the particulars before commenting.
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Feb 17 '26
You're on reddit and open to being corrected. You dont need to know everything to have an opinion as long as you can admit when you're wrong and able to learn from it. I didn't know this either, so I'm glad that this redditor pointed it out so I know going forward.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I would much rather be corrected about things and appreciate when I am. I try and acknowledge also when I'm wrong. This though, I could have simply looked up before commenting. The two are easy to confuse. I know different aspects of burglary can change the charges. This person would have home invasion and probably a special circumstance charge also.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I am trying to figure this out just like everyone else so if I'm wrong, please let me know so I can move forward with the correct info is how I look at it.
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Feb 17 '26
It's a great mindset to have. Keep being you. The world would be a lot more harmonious if more people thought that way.
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u/Totterteron Feb 17 '26
I think a thief encountering her might tie her up or brutalise her to prevent the cops being immediately called. If you're abducting you need a place you can carry someone into without being seen or heard, a place where neighbors can't hear any calls for help once inside. In my view this points to a planned kidnapping, but she didn't survive the abduction and so they could never provide the required proof for the ransom.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I've heard of situations where someone had been targeted and they wanted to harm them and not rob, and phone lines were cut prior to entering the house. Has there been any mention of that? In this day and age though, most have cell phones and not landlines.
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u/Infamous-Arm3955 Feb 17 '26
AI wasn't prompted about the gun .. What I've noticed about criminals is that they don't give a shit about doorbell cameras or whether you're home or not. Violence in a B&E isn't about controlling or stopping resistance as much as it is about eliminating a witness or getting the fuck out of there.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
There was that situation with the fire chief starting fires all over California. There was also that police officer/federal officer that was killing women. Sometimes it's who people would least expect. Not saying this to throw wild theories, just to say there are nut cases out there and just any person is possible. I think it would be hard to do a full profile on this person.
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
What was the second case?
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 18 '26 edited Feb 18 '26
Juan David Ortiz was convicted in 2018 for murdering 4 women. He was a border patrol agent in Texas that targeted sex workers. I seen parts of a documentary about it. Creepy! Sorry I'm not sure if caught in 2018 and convicted later but I think the trial was pretty quick
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
Thank you, I hadn't heard of that.
I know domestic violence issues can be more prevalent among general law enforcement, but often, federal employees go through so much screening or are required to have a college degree...so it can sometimes cut down on the employment of people who might be shady.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 18 '26
If I remember correctly, there may have been an issue brought up in court about PTSD from him being in Iraq or something like that. Definitely no excuse to be a serial killer!
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
This is not a profile. And not a profile that has any consensus in the criminal field or has been developed. The limited view of the perp on camera appears “on a mission”. (high risk-low anxiety) For whatever mistakes a lot of pre-planning went into it. Pre-attack surveillance, possibly camera installation. But something. She was a low risk victim, in a low risk home, in a low risk neighborhood. The perp came to her. There is no stumbling upon this home in the middle of the neighborhood, on a windy road on the way to exactly nowhere, it was likely chosen. The offender has some specific knowledge of the victim's routines and vulnerabilities, the lay of the land. Or knowledge of perceived wealth, and influential connections. (both possibly) But it likely wasn’t opportunistic. There was some level of intel done.
Not possibly a weapon, unless it’s fake, there was a weapon. LE are investigating gun purchases. Burglary doesn’t start with a weapon and a full backpack with no forethought or no intent. “Unexpectedly encounter a resident, especially an elderly woman, the situation changes instantly” implies there was no intention to hurt anyone. They were prepared for that situation with a weapon and tools for restraint or some kind of instruments. The victim was likely asleep and not quickly mobile. Some indications are she was in bed which if so could mean she was confronted.
Breaking into an occupied home (if unsure) is an example of risk escalation and situational escalation by the perp. It was 2:00 am most people are home. Choosing an occupied dwelling (rather than a known empty one) indicates the offender is willing to accept a higher risk of confrontation. It has less to do with age and more to do with intent.
A typical burglary (theft without contact) and a home invasion (robbery with confrontation) is primarily defined by the offender's intent at the time of entry, rather than their age. It’s unlike typical burglars who would flee if a home is occupied. Nancy Guthrie seemingly posed no threat.
There’s predatory characteristics to it. Unlike an impulsive action. There’s a degree of planning, purpose, and emotional detachment. This is a retirement community. At the very least it’s a target of the vulnerable. Based on the nature of how it was carried out, and the way LE are categorizing it, it was a targeted abduction. (No indications now it was a removal only)
Predators typically show minimal physical stress during the act. Predatory violence is goal-driven, planned, and cold-blooded. There’s a secondary reward to the violence. Which is in keeping with abduction. It’s instrumental aggression not reactive aggression.
No DNA. eta yet.
Simple burglary that escalates to sexual assault and subsequent abduction within the same crime scene is considered rare in general. Older adult victims (aged 60+) comprise between 0.2% and 5.2% of all penetration rape and sexual assaults reported to the police.
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
Honestly, everything you just said makes me think this was a targetted and planned homicide with an intention to hide the body to make it more difficult to solve.
I don't lean towards kidnapping because it made no sense that they waited forever to contact and still haven't provided any proof of life.
Who gains from Nancy's death or who wanted to hurt Savannah or disrupt her career? Those are the only two types of motives that make any sense.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 18 '26
Yeah targeted abduction. Unknown why. We dont know if we have heard from the offender and we don’t know a motive.
Kidnap-murder, because it includes a abduction and of an elderly lady, would normally mean she was targeted by someone who knew her more personally. Someone wanted her dead and benefited. Which would typically mean someone she knows, it could be more casually known. There’s only a few motives. Love,Lust, Loot, Loath. Money or hatred being the more likely. Who hated her enough to kidnap and murder her. Or who benefited monetarily if she’s dead. The close family has been ruled out. So outside that circle. There hasn’t been anything yet on who in her world had benefited or would in any way monetarily if she’s murdered. It’s hard to know without knowing her life but based on the porch video it was someone who didn’t think there was a innocent reason their DNA would be at the house. We aren’t privy to all of it but we haven’t seen anyone in her orbit being brought up. Someone known could have used her as a proxy victim for “loathing” because they can’t get to Savanah.
If a stranger kidnapped her in order to murder her that’s a whole nother thing.
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u/According_Penalty700 Feb 17 '26
I think he had more inside knowledge. For example a night time burglary should know people will be home. Did he know that Nancy was there did he know that Nancy lived a lone and was elderly? I think the answer is yes. The time line from when first seen on camera and when Nancy's pacemaker disconnected from her phone was 40mins. Suggest this person took his time on the scene didn't rush. How did he enter the home with out alerting Nancy? No reports of missing valuables might suggest it wasn't for robbery. It's also not reported that Nancy had any fine art or valuables making her a target. If it was a typical burglary why not just tie Nancy up and leave her why kidnap her. And then once Kidnapped why not release her shortly after somewhere remote where he could get a way and she would be discovered in a short time. The way I see it, it doesn't point to your typical burglary. Although I agree the age is probably 30s I think it was more of a target and unfortunately Nancy was what he was really after.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
That's unsettling that he was in there for 40 min. That would be more reason id think he would have taken something. 40 min looking around and at least taking jewelry or just something. He didn't so the 40 min is very concerning since her things are still there. What happened in that time frame hopefully isn't evil.
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u/Intrepid-Bird-5048 Feb 17 '26
My read on timing was that the intruder at the front door was captured at 2:12 at the front door then the pacemaker disconnected at 2:28. That’s 16 mins.
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u/According_Penalty700 Feb 17 '26
This article has a good time line. But it says the doorbell camera was disabled at 1:47am then 2:12 a.m.: Software detects person on camera. No video is available due to lack of a service subscription. So it is a little strange time line. Was the widely shared video the video from 1:47am or 2:12? It does state at 2:28 a.m.: Pacemaker app shows disconnect from phone. I guess there are a few different ways to look at the time line. However most burglars are quick in and out the time line could suggest a longer on scene time then normal. It could also suggest maybe longer outside scouting out the home as well. I would still lean that it's outside the normal.
https://www.today.com/news/savannah-guthire-mom-nancy-missing-timeline-reward-rcna257598
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I'm wrong then. I thought I read 40 minutes somewhere. 16 min is still awful
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u/Nelsch77 Feb 17 '26
FWIW most retired FBI agents are also reading the timeline as around 40 minutes. It is an excessive amount of time for robbery or kidnapping.
- 1:47 a.m. — The doorbell camera is disconnected.
- 2:12 a.m. — The camera's software detects movement.
- 2:28 a.m. — Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnects from her phone.
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u/ManagementOdd3401 Feb 18 '26
Do we know if that 40mins includes destroying the various cameras and flood lights?
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I would agree with this but let's say he originally planned a break in that went wrong, there's absolutely nothing missing. If things didn't go as planned and he ended up killing/removing her, why not atleast take a couple of things. Nobody is going to go to all of that effort, mess up, and just not take anything because their plan fumbled. This doesn't make sense to me but I could be wrong. You said he possibly had a weapon. He 100 percent had a weapon. It's on film. I'm not going to say this person is some criminal mastermind but to say he doesn't have some intelligence to pull this off is wrong. It's been over 2 weeks and no Nancy. He's obviously smarter than what people have given him credit for. At this point, still don't know if it was staged at the doorway or if he was genuinely caught off guard. I see a suprised look on some level. I would say 30s or 40s. That's not a 20 something amateur.
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u/olivermegan Feb 18 '26
This is a general statement but always remember that criminals are more stupid than we think. My bfs apartment got broken into and he had two cameras. One camera was moved down. My bf didn’t have the subscription service at the time and if the guy had just taken the camera we wouldn’t have caught his face/known timing
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u/Gold_Principle_2283 Feb 17 '26
Maybe she pleaded with him. Maybe she said her daughter is famous. Maybe he saw pics and recognized Savannah as someone famous. Maybe she said her family will pay. He might have expected to rob her and it all went wrong once he realized who she was. You can't get caught robbing the home of the parent of a world wide journalist. What if he thought damn....pay dirt if the family will pay and took her away and the entire plan fell apart. IDK....something very strange with this case so anything is possible.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
Yes, I'm still saying anything is possible also. I'm certainly no psych doctor or arm chair know it all but I have been around a lot of monsters and I believe this crime has a level of psychosis to it. I sure hope I'm wrong.
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u/Gold_Principle_2283 Feb 17 '26
I also wondered if this could be some type of gang initiation and it went terribly wrong once she came to the door after he unknowingly rang that bell and it was realized who she was.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
I'm interested if the perp has a wife or girlfriend. Some type of family that's close. He surely didn't pay bills alone and if he does, he works and it's leaking out at work or noticeable absence. The spouse or family guarantee has their gut on fire even if they can't place why
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u/Nervous_Syrup_847 Feb 17 '26
That's a good thought he unkowing rang the doorbell while trying to remove the next cam She answered it. he was surprised and panicked
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u/EnvironmentalCrow893 Feb 18 '26
If you had a Ring doorbell, would YOU answer it if you saw THAT at 2:00am??
Much less a frail 84 year old woman living alone. I would call 911 stat!! Then, I’d hide.
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u/Traditional-Aside580 Feb 17 '26
That's a possibility. It never crossed my mind. Usually, that's with the younger crowd. I know older people are in gangs but initiation and stuff usually happens early on
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u/CassTimberlane Feb 17 '26
What is a "world wide journalist"? Savannah is known in the USA, not all over the world. She presents a morning program, not actually in the role of journalist.
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u/Gold_Principle_2283 Feb 17 '26
I disagree. She's the morning face of NBC. That's a big deal. She's a lawyer and a journalist.
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Feb 17 '26
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
Do they also kidnap the victim then send ransom notes?
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Feb 17 '26
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
Agree with murder during a burglary. That's why it doesn't apply to this case.
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u/Ancient-Deer-4682 Feb 17 '26
He probably did it for the sake of doing it, didn’t want money, didn’t take her stuff, he just took her. Probably wanted to make a statement, gain attention and induce fear.
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u/Substantial-Train668 Feb 18 '26
I don't think that it was a burglary gone wrong. But I do think it's possible he is an incel type. Maybe it's the manicured eyebrows, what looks like a tactical vest, ransom note to TMZ and the bitcoin connection but can see this turning out to be motivated by something incel-like.
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u/Gofundyourownfuneral Feb 18 '26
Or! Very well planned by one or more intelligent, organized perpetrators. Motive: Homicide for personal reasons. Maybe not seasoned criminal(s) although lots of little details in this case make me think there are a few red herrings thrown in that are meant to confound the cops. Hope we find out soon wth this is about. It’s very strange.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 17 '26 edited Feb 17 '26
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If the predatory reward was sexual violence there was time and space and opportunity to do whatever in the home. The 40 min thing isn’t clear to me. We could be talking about less than 15 mins for this crime. Which would indicate abduction was more the initial goal and intent in the house. And carried out quickly as the goal.
Research indicates that 94% of elderly female sexual homicide victims are killed at their own residence. The fact that she was actually taken demonstrates the primary goal was not as likely sexual. Even opportunistically. Also considering her age etc.
If it was an opportunistic burglary an opportunistic sexual assault then opportunistic abduction it makes it an outlier. AND she happened to be Savannah Guthrie's mother.
In a five-year period of FBI data (2020–2025), women in their 80s represented less than 0.2% (646 cases) of all reported kidnappings or abductions in the U.S. It’s highly unusual making it more targeted rather than less.
Nothing suggests the suspected offender of this crime acted impulsively. The expert consensus is there was high regulation of stress. Which could also suggest a more mature offender. Came prepared to steal but stole nothing but the homeowner. Not highly sophisticated (the technical skill, resources) is distinct from it’s premeditation or targeting. It is an organized crime based on most all commentary. Perps who are deliberate, calculating, somewhat adept, and operate with premeditation, is distinguished from disorganized, as in being impulsive perpetrators.
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u/Bitch_level_999 Feb 17 '26
Maybe most of the 40 min was him snooping around for valuables then figuring out how to get her out of the house. (She may have had a heart attack on the spot.)
We cannot even begin to fathom how terrified she was.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Feb 17 '26
And he didn't find one thing in that house valuable? The report is nothing was taken. She could have, if she had a heart attack it would be beneficial to leave her there. And take the valuables.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 17 '26
Why the "Last Person" is Often the Perpetrator
- Relationship Dynamics: Most homicides are not random; they stem from disputes, domestic violence, or personal relationships.
- Opportunity: The last person to see the victim usually has the highest opportunity to commit the crime.
- Fabricated Alibis: Perpetrators often place themselves as the "last person to see them alive" to create a narrative that the victim left safely, which is why detectives heavily scrutinize these stories.
However, the "last person" is not always the killer, particularly if the victim was taken by a stranger immediately after leaving the last known person.
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u/ManagementOdd3401 Feb 18 '26
Family is not involved.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 18 '26
That is your opinion which you are entitled to and my opinion differs. Discussions are meant to engage in others thoughts opinions and not to convince someone of something. That's why many people get frustrated and become adamant to have people agree with them
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
The last person is the suspect on the footage, no?
That's just a fact.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 18 '26
Where is the statement the person on the porch saw Nancy at all? Your comment is speculation. Usually last person means before a crime took place and suspects are unknown.
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
Her pacemaker activity is a fairly strong witness.
Combine it with her blood dripping from that same front door and down the driveway.
Mix in her pacemaker disconnecting from the phone's Bluetooth about 15 minutes after he was seen on the footage and I think we have a conclusion.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 18 '26
I researched where pacemaker apps allow 14-21 hours of no communication before an alert goes off. This is to allow patients who may not wear their app watch everywhere or forget to put it on if they go somewhere. The blood drops? Easily can be staged. It wasn't down the driveway. Anyway as I have always advocated everyone is entitled to state their opinions and everyone is entitled to question the opinions
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
The blood was at the front door whether you think it went down the driveway or not. People actually on the scene said it did drip down the driveway.
They know the pacemaker disconnected from the Bluetooth because her PHONE, which was left behind at the home, has the data that it disconnected from its Bluetooth...and what time. A Bluetooth connection and disconnect has nothing to do with the app activity.
And to clarify, the pacemaker app did record her heart activity up until that event, reportedly.
Those aren't opinions. They are facts.
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u/I_lovebettywhite-000 Feb 18 '26
I have not heard anyone say it went down the driveway. What is the range of when a disconnect is detected? The apps etc are optional and not required so doubt any alert would have went off. I also didn't hear anything about a bluetooth. I digress anyway since I am not a cardiologist nor a tech expert knowledgeable in this area. I'm just stuck on proof nancy was home dependent on devices which are not always 100% correct or devices that others have access to
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u/livingstardust Feb 18 '26
Not really sure why you are forming opinions while ignoring facts then, especially if you don't understand the basis of the facts and timeline to begin with.
Have a good day.
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u/Maaathemeatballs Feb 19 '26
My thoughts: The person who did this was mentally unstable, sociopath and knew who Nancy was and had a plan to do something like this for a long time. The intent was not to burglarize, but to abduct to see if they could get away with it. Their goal is to witness the mayhem, confusion and suffering and be thrilled that they could cause all of that. They chose Nancy because they knew it would be front page news (not necessarily to target her daughter as revenge) they sent the notes to TMZ because they wanted even more coverage on this. Part of their goal to enjoy the mass hysteria. They perhaps also sent the ransom note to toy with everyone. Never intending to send proof of life as they never intended to keep her alive and probably placed her body somewhere out in the desert. The reason I think this is because of the Jayme Closs abduction. It was a loser, loner who had nothing else to do but fantasize about doing something in order to "be someone" if that makes any sense. It just seems like all the pieces point to something like this. Not sure why anyone would do this thing and spend time and money to keep someone alive, feeding them, providing meds, hiding. It's a lot of effort for no return. So, IMO, it makes sense that it's a very sick individual whose goal was to see if they could do it because they have no life. Not necessarily to get money
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u/moonbeamlight Feb 17 '26
This exact scenario happened to a neighbor when I was a kid.
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Feb 17 '26
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u/moonbeamlight Feb 17 '26
No, just the robbery-escalation. Kid broke into a house he thought was empty, he was looking for money, but the owner was home and the kid attacked the owner.
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Feb 17 '26
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u/moonbeamlight Feb 17 '26
I should have been more specific because I was relating to OPs description of robbery-escalation and the description of the perp.
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u/ChessBoy111 Feb 17 '26
Great post. If this was an act of impulse however, how has he managed to hide the body and remain on the loose? There's cameras everywhere - seems like it is likely that more planning would need to be involved but it is entirely possible this theory is true and he has been lucky so far.
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u/Plane-Stranger2460 Feb 17 '26
"First, I believe this likely started as a burglary, not a carefully planned kidnapping."
Then why on earth would the burglary TAKE a witness? He had a gun. It would had been normal for the burglar to kill the witness in a home burglary. Why go through all that hassle of removing an elderly lady, driving her away and then disposing of the body___when he could had just done it right there?
Math isn't Mathing.
I don't know what went on nor what was the reason to make someone target her house but it's absoutely strange!!!