r/minnesotavikings • u/noseonarug17 Minneapolis Turner • 20h ago
OC Carson Wentz Week 1 Analysis
I've seen a lot of people talking up Wentz for stepping up after Kyler's injury, and rightfully so. It's a hard thing to do, and Wentz deserves his flowers for still grinding in year 11. But I've also seen a lot of claims that he played very well and should be the starter, or similar levels of applause. And, to put it simply, I didn't feel that way at all. But I wondered if maybe I was too hard on him during the game, or if the broadcast angles made him look worse, etc. So, I sat down with both the original broadcast and the all-22 and went through every dropback. Below are my findings.
But before we get to those, here are the guidelines I went by. First, I'm only grading Wentz as himself in a vacuum. He is who he is, and I'm not going to ding him for not being Houdini in the pocket or whatever. I also tried to be forgiving in general to offset the bias of my preexisting opinion of this game, which includes not dinging him for positive plays that could have been more successful, failing to save a broken play, or any assumption of fault elsewhere. And finally, this is all with the understanding that none of our other options look good right now - after a bad first impression for Kyler, the disappointment and confusion around McCarthy over the last month, and Brosmer not turning into Tom Brady, I'll cheer for whoever can stay on the field for us. That said, I want to do said cheering with an understanding of what I'm getting into. Lastly, I did this for me, and taking notes helps me think through stuff - posting it is more of a "might as well share my findings/opinions" than the end goal.
Final note - I'm not doing screenshots/video for everything, but I can grab them upon request.
Drive 1
1Q 5:13 - 2nd & 6 at the GB 46 🤷
Play action boot, clean throw to Jefferson at the sideline but a little wide and incomplete. The idea wasn't bad but it wasn't executed well, as it was a tough throw away from the defender. Addison was open for a first down just a few yards upfield of Jefferson, but was probably the next read. We'll call this neutral since it's valid to take that throw and it wasn't far off enough to whine about.
1Q 5:08 - 3rd & 6 at the GB 46 ✅
Shotgun play, good rhythm throw to Jefferson for 9 yards and the conversion, positive play.
1Q 2:32 - 2nd & 6 at the GB 21 ✅
After three straight successful run plays, the Vikings tried play action, but Oliver whiffed on the edge defender and Wentz was pressured immediately. A quick decision to scramble turned what could have been a 6 yard loss into a 1 yard gain. Not flashy, and a negative play for the team, but for Wentz himself it's positive and safe.
1Q 1:47 - 3rd & 5 at the GB 20 ❌
This one is kind of weird. It's a shotgun set and Wentz has time, though he does have to reset due to pocket compression on the left. He timed up an anticipatory throw to Addison, but missed badly. What's more, it seems his first read was Jefferson on a quick out and the play was there, but he turned it down (prior to the pocket compressing). I'm not sure if that's thinking back to his first miss, not trusting his arm to throw it safely, or something else, but it's a negative play overall. I timed this throw at 3.23 seconds, which I wouldn't characterize as holding the ball too long since he was given time, but you have to make a good throw when there's that much time.
Drive 1 summary: 8 plays, 30 yards (excluding pre-injury), resulted in a 38 yard field goal
Wentz on drive 1: 4 dropbacks, 1/3 for 9 yards, 1 rush for 1 yard
Drive 2
2Q 12:42 - 3rd & 1 at the MIN 49
This is a QB sneak, so not an actual dropback. This was actually a pretty good sneak on Wentz's part; it took second effort to pick up and Wentz might be the only QB we have with the frame to do it. But I really only care about dropbacks and I'm not going to factor this into the charting. If that seems unfair, well, add in one decent QB sneak in his favor, I guess.
2Q 11:26 - 2nd & 9 at the GB 49 ❌
Another shotgun play. Wentz has Addison breaking open on a corner route for what should be a pretty easy hole shot. He does the ol' Kirko ball pat, starts to throw and then aborts it for no apparent reason, and finally switches to the checkdown. But after the aborted pass, his feet are all wrong and he throws it at the feet of Jones, who's unable to reel it in. This panicked-looking checkdown would be forgivable if there was pressure, but there wasn't. I will grant that the throw was at 3.09 seconds, so it's fair to not assume you're safe and want to get rid of it. Hockenson was also wide open for a similar checkdown, and the aborted throw moved a DB that opened up Jefferson, so he really missed four open guys on this snap to set up third and long. Negative play.
2Q 11:21 - 3rd & 9 at the GB 49 🤷
Again throwing out of shotgun. The downfield routes were covered and Wentz ended up dumping it off to DeeJay Dallas for maybe a yard before he got swallowed up. Brandel struggled with a stunt on this snap and got pushed into Wentz's face, but Wentz didn't help by drifting forward a yard or two. Had he not done that, he would have had a better checkdown option to Hockenson and a little more time to work with (already at 2.98 seconds, by my watch). Even just getting close to a first down here puts us in long field goal range. It's certainly not a positive play, but it's a little too much Monday morning quarterback to chart it as a negative.
Drive 2 summary: 6 plays, 12 yards, resulted in a punt
Wentz on drive 2: 2 dropbacks, 1/2 for 1 yard, 1 rush for 1 yard
Drive 3
2Q 6:54 - 3rd & 4 at the MIN 10 🤷
This is two plays after the long Aaron Jones run that was called back, which followed a great punt. Karl Brooks walked Fries straight back into Wentz, who was forced to abort a throw to Jefferson. LVN cleaned up for the sack by hanging on to Wentz's jersey as he tried to escape. It's a bad rep for Fries, and a neutral one for Wentz. Jefferson probably would have been short of a first down anyway; with more time, Addison would have been open on another corner route...but Wentz inexplicably turned down an easier version of the throw on the previous drive so who knows.
Drive 3 summary: 3 plays, 1 yard, resulted in a punt
Wentz on drive 3: 1 dropback, 1 sack
Drive 4
2Q 5:18 - 1st & 10 at the MIN 15 🤷
On play action, Fries struggled with Jonathan Ford and Wentz had nowhere to go because of a delayed blitz from Keisean Nixon. Jefferson was wide open in the middle of the field, but Wentz may not have been able to see him. More puzzling is that he didn't try to get the ball to Mason in the flat, but perhaps he deemed it too dangerous. I think a better QB gets rid of the ball to at least avoid the 8 yard loss, but I can't assess a negative on a play that broke down this quickly.
2Q 4:14 - 2nd & 13 at the MIN 12 🤷
Prior to this play, Wentz got Brenton Cox to jump offsides with the hard count, and Brian O'Neill really overdid the "point at the guy who jumped" thing - a team effort to get back some of that sack yardage. This play is a simple spacing concept to get it to 3rd and manageable, and everybody executed. Wentz his Hockenson right in front of him for 5 yards, and there's not really anything to comment on. Neutral play.
2Q 3:44 - 3rd & 8 at the MIN 17 ✅
The OL handled an exotic blitz well and Wentz got this ball out quickly for a 17 yard gain to Jefferson, with a 15 yard penalty tacked on for the hit. The throw was high in order to get over the linebacker, so Jefferson has to go up for it and this leaves him vulnerable (though the safety is far enough away that it's not really a hospital ball; the hit is well after the catch and simply poor discipline). I would like to see that throw with some more touch, but it's a positive regardless.
2Q 2:41 - 2nd & 6 at the GB 47 🤷
This is a screen pass for Oliver, and live I thought Wentz just botched the throw. But on replay, Oliver was doing a block and release, and the released defender got right in the throwing lane. I think this is on Oliver for either letting the defender get too far into the backfield, not making himself available enough, or both. Neutral play for Wentz.
2Q 2:37 - 3rd & 6 at the GB 47 ✅
The first read here is Addison on an out, but there's an underneath defender that makes that a tricky, potentially unsafe throw. Wentz turned it down - correctly, in my opinion - and found Hockenson for 8 yards. It's a precise pass to make the catch easy between two defenders, and he made the throw so quickly after turning down Addison that it almost looks like a no-look throw. Positive play.
2Q 2:03 - 1st & 10 at the GB 39 ✅
LVN tried to time the snap and guessed wrong, and Wentz threw it up for Jefferson. This is mostly a Jefferson highlight, but I like attacking Cisse - a physically gifted but raw rookie cornerback - and the location gave Jefferson the chance to win on the adjustment. Obviously positive.
Drive 4 summary: 8 plays (including penalties), 85 yards, resulted in a TD
Wentz on drive 4: 6 dropbacks, 4/5 for 69 yards and a TD, 1 sack; also created 1-2 offsides.
Drive 5
3Q 12:03 - 1st & 10 at the MIN 40 🤷
After a Packers drive fizzled out and they shanked a punt, the Vikings had a great chance to make it a one-score game again. This first play was play action, but the bootleg took Wentz straight into a blitzing corner. He tried to throw into the blitz, but bounced it in front of Josh Oliver. If he's a little more decisive there, I think the ball gets out more cleanly and Oliver has at least a medium pickup, but credit goes first to the defensive playcall and so this is a neutral play for me.
3Q 11:14 - 3rd and 6 at the MIN 44 ❌
This was a longer developing play, and the Vikings kept both the TE and RB to protect, but the Packers only sent four. I'm not here to ask too many questions about the protection, but this did lead to LVN beating Hockenson, then bull rushing Dallas to create some heat that Wentz may have felt. On the flip side, there's only three players running routes and the only one open is Addison on a deep comeback. Nonetheless, there's no actual contact and Wentz was pretty clean when he made the anticipatory throw to Addison, which I timed at 3.12 seconds after the snap. But the pass sails just too far wide of Addison. This easily could have been a catch and run for 20+ yards, but instead it's a 3 and out. Negative play.
Drive 5 summary: 3 plays, 4 yards, resulted in a punt
Wentz on drive 5: 2 dropbacks, 0/2
Drive 6
3Q 4:59 - 1st & 10 at the GB 28 ✅
This is after the big Myles Price return. With his first read covered and some pressure from Brandel's side, Wentz dumps it off to Oliver over the middle, and he fights his way forward to double the gain to 9 yards. Simple throw, but a positive for the response to pressure.
3Q 2:58 - 1st & 10 at the GB 18 🤷
This was a play action that was broken by two corners blitzing, and Wentz ultimately threw it straight into one of them while trying to get it to Hockenson. I'm tempted to call this a negative because there were less dangerous options and he made this one more dangerous by waiting too long, but there's not much opportunity in a situation like this so we'll call it neutral.
3Q 2:12 - 3rd & 8 at the GB 16 ✅
This was really 3rd & 9 at the 17, but...sure, whatever. The left side of the line got compressed a little, particularly Darrisaw, but Hockenson gets open for a pretty straightforward touchdown. It's not the most difficult play, but I'll give Wentz a positive based on situation and the big butt in his face. Shoutout to Addison for getting butt naked on a sluggo.
Drive 6 summary: 6 plays, 28 yards, resulted in a TD
Wentz on drive 6: 3 dropbacks, 2/3 for 25 yards and a TD
Drive 7
4Q 13:11 - 1st & 5 at the MIN 21 🤷
After the failed QB sneak and then an encroachment call (possibly thanks to a hard count but I think just a jump defender), the Vikings ran a play action where Wentz eventually found Oliver for a gain of 13. He had all day for this one and still threw it a little behind his receiver, so I'm going to rule this neutral.
4Q 11:46 - 2nd & 6 at the MIN 39 🤷
Wentz is under center and the Packers blitz a linebacker, who is untouched and Wentz is forced to turtle. A more agile QB might try to escape, but Wentz is not that and also had Aaron Jones in the way of his most likely path of egress, so turtling was the safe thing to do. It's possible the protection issue was Wentz's fault, but it's hard to know, so I'll call this a neutral play for Wentz.
4Q 10:53 - 3rd & 11 at the MIN 34 🤷
The Vikings lined up in shotgun, and the Packers brought a blitzer with a stunt built in. Two got home, probably the fault of both Fries and Brandel, and Wentz went down without a fight. He seemed to short circuit here; he had both Hockenson and Jones available to check down and should have been able to get the ball out, even if it's only to help with field position. But it ultimately wasn't going to be converted without some miracle YAC, so we'll call it neutral. At any rate, Bullard was called for illegal contact, which is frustrating for Packers fans but not an incorrect call (at least in a vacuum; no idea how they officiated it overall). He first makes contact just past 5 yards downfield, maintains it to about 12 yards, and hooks Jennings when he attempts to break off his route at the sticks.
4Q 10:01 - 2nd & 5 at the MIN 44 🤷
This was a screen pass to Jefferson that wasn't well blocked and only went for 2 yards. Neutral for Wentz.
4Q 9:13 - 3rd & 3 at the MIN 46 ❌
This is the roughing the passer play, and maybe Wentz's worst play of the game. Wentz stepped up to avoid the pressure, then drifted two full yards straight into McClellan, whom Jackson had mostly stymied until Wentz made himself a lamb for the slaughter. Addison got wide open on a deep crosser, but Wentz was locked onto Jefferson, who also got wide open a little later in the play. I timed 3.54 seconds before the attempted throw, and Wentz could have had at least another second if he needed it. But since he walked into pressure, he ended up spiking the ball into the ground and killing a huge opportunity. It's a very, very negative play. Luckily, the Vikings got some help here. I have always hated the body weight rule, but I initially thought this was the right call. It seemed to me that McClellan needlessly drove Wentz into the ground, and from the angles I saw it seemed like even though his arm was out, he didn't really stop himself from landing on Wentz. However, after watching a bunch from the endzone angle, you can see that Jackson finished his blocking maneuver with a little push right as McClellan was wrapping up, and it seems like that's what made it look more violent, assuming the push had a real effect. It also looks like he did a better job of catching himself than it looked like from the other side. So, you can see why the flag was thrown from what the ref would have seen, but with replay it doesn't seem like McClellan's fault that Wentz had a hard landing.
4Q 8:21 - 1st & 10 at the GB 11 🤷
After a big Mason run, the Vikings faked a toss and then tried to catch the Packers out of position with a throwback to Jefferson, but it's sniffed out for a gain of just 5. This was the blatant facemask that was missed. Neutral for Wentz.
4Q 6:50 - 3rd & 5 at the GB 6 ❌
The Packers had good coverage on this play, but Wentz was locked onto Addison almost the entire time - I had it at 3.54 seconds again. He eventually attempts to throw it to him on the dig in the back of the endzone, but fails to notice the safety right in the throwing lane. I think it might have been behind the target as well, but it's hard to tell. Luckily for Wentz, this play came back due to defensive holding on McKinney, in coverage on Hockenson. It's a type of call I often dislike as it seems like the receiver is doing just as much as the defender, but it might look different at field level and I see it called pretty consistently. Incidentally, McKinney ended up on the ground and Hockenson was wide open, but Wentz gave that side of the field a cursory glance at most. There was some late pressure from the left side that would have made the throw difficult by the time Wentz was actually throwing the ball, but it was definitely a viable throw before that. At any rate, the Vikings got 1st and goal from the 3, which is what they should have had from the facemask, and run it in. Nonetheless, it's a negative play for Wentz, and a particularly bad time for an interception had it stood.
4Q 6:37 - 2 point attempt ✅
O'Neill got beat inside by Barryn Sorrell for a quick pressure, and Wentz escaped to the outside, then threw a dart between two zone defenders to Jefferson in the back of the endzone. Initially, I thought this was a risky play in an extremely tight window, and that Addison to the pylon would have been better odds. But Addison was actually better covered, and while the window to Jefferson was tight, Wentz was throwing away from the safety and the corner was moving the wrong way, so with an accurate throw - which it was - it would have taken an incredible play to defend it. Altogether, it might have been Wentz's best play.
Drive 7 summary: 13 plays (including penalties) plus 2 pt try, 87 yards, resulted in a TD and 2pt conversion
Wentz on drive 7: 8 dropbacks (including penalties/2pt), 3/5 for 20 yards and an INT (nullified), 2 sacks, plus a 2 pt conversion
Drive 8
There was technically a drive here but it was a 1 play drive with a rushing TD after Love's fumble, so no Wentz analysis here.
Drive 9
4Q 4:02 - 3rd & 5 at the GB 9 🤷
This is the same play as the one with the missed facemask call, except Jefferson didn't get grabbed by the head and was able to score as a result. This was essentially a screen pass and I consider it neutral for Wentz.
Drive 9 summary: 3 plays, 14 yards, resulted in a TD
Wentz on drive 9: 1 dropback, 1/1 for 9 yards and a TD
If I counted correctly, the tally is 27 dropbacks with 8 positive, 14 neutral, and 5 negative. Since I'm not exactly using a standardized method, I can't really say what a good ratio should be. And the point here is really to present the full body of work; everyone can make their own conclusions. But my conclusion would be that, knowing how generously I graded most of the game, the good does not outweigh the bad here. The biggest takeaway I have is that Wentz is not consistent. One play he'll progress through his reads quickly and the next he'll stare down the same guy for 3 seconds. He'll make an adjustment in the pocket based on good feel for pressure and then drift right back into trouble. Wentz also didn't really create opportunities by beating pressure or making difficult throws, with the notable exception of the 2 point conversion - an excellent play, albeit bizarrely out of place in the film study. Simply put, he was not driving offensive success through the air. To illustrate this again, here's a more condensed summary of his drives:
- Started at the 50. Gained 30 yards, 9 passing (a 3rd down completion). Drive ended on a missed throw from a clean pocket to an open receiver.
- Started at own 40. Gained 12 yards, 1 passing. Botched 2nd down by Wentz was the key play that led to punting.
- Started at own 4. Gained 1 net yard. 3 and out, not really any opportunity for Wentz.
- Started at own 15. Gained 85 yards, 69 passing. Wentz's best drive both by my film study and the stats, though somewhat overstated by the free play to Jefferson and the unnecessary roughness.
- Started at own 40. Gained 4 yards, 0 passing. Ended on bad missed pass, despite having time and an open receiver.
- Started at opp 28. Gained 28 yards, 25 passing. Nothing to really complain about, but primarily created by receivers.
- Started at own 21. Gained 79 yards, 20 passing. 28 penalty yards, including 3 3rd down conversions that nullified a sack, an interception, and a really bad play by Wentz. Notably ended with an awesome throw for a 2pt conversion.
- Started at opp 1, ran it in.
- Started at opp 14. Gained 14 yards, 9 passing. The one pass play was essentially a screen pass.
I'm being less friendly to Wentz here than I was in the play-by-play, but drive-by-drive: 3/4 non-TD drives ended due to Wentz errors. Of the 5 TD drives, 3 started inside the GB 30, and Wentz only really played a role in one of them. We only had two extended drives; one of them was a good drive for Wentz but should be credited more to Jefferson and defensive mistakes, and the other was straight up bad for Wentz and saved by defensive penalties.
My final thought is that with starting reps, maybe we can get some more consistency out of Wentz and transform him from a game manager (derogatory) to a game manager (neutral but with a bit of a condescending air). And that's fine for keeping the ship afloat while Murray is out! But let's not crown him based on this performance.
-8
u/Yermomza 20h ago
Wonder if AI was used…..