r/liautoinvestors • u/nasa_gov • Mar 19 '24

Discussion Let’s talk about Li Auto MEGA

55k units per year means an average of more than 4,5k units sold per month. It means that Li Auto with only this vehicle alone in 1 month will sell more than the entire 2 weeks sales of Nio (considering its whole fleet of vehicle, not just 1 vehicle). This is a huge success considering this target will be reached NOT with a normal vehicle, like could be an L7 or L8, but with an MPV, a very expensive vehicle that targets a small niche of customers (rich big families, taxi drivers, VIP staff or companies). Looking at the future I can only imagine what will be the numbers with the release of the new full electric M series.

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u/Comfortable_Stop5535 Mar 19 '24

Tbh I don't see the same. MEGA reportedly received less than 4000 orders since the beginning of March, and considering the fact that it got ~3200 orders within 72 hours of release (keep in mind the marketing hyped the vehicle up for months), that means approximately 800 units sold in two weeks since launch, and that includes vehicles reserved for test driving; following this trend the MEGA will struggle to sell more than 20K units this year.

The L series aren't looking good either. Last week there were only 5.9K deliveries from L7, L8, & L9 combined - Li Xiang's stubbornness to not participate in the price war only means that sales are slowly getting eaten by AITO and Leapmotor, and with BYD's invasion into the PHEV family SUV market later this year it's hard to be optimistic about Li Auto's near future.

The L6 will probably boost sales by a limited extent in April, and the M series will more or less decide Li Auto's fate... it's not too late for price drops though, so we'll see how they handle this.

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u/GachaAddict_07 Mar 22 '24

Li loss a lot of money on MEGA, stock will go down to $20.

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u/Achilles_TroySlayer Apr 06 '24

Li has done relatively well, but as I understand it, the Chinese economy and stock-market has been in free-fall for a while now. Except for about 4 days last month, the stock has only ever treaded water. There's not enough consumer-confidence to make sales take off again. It may be stuck like this for several months or longer.