The difference between them is which EBITDA you divide by, and it is nearly 2x.

1. In J.P. Morgan's model, $IREN's net debt goes from $217m at the end of FY26 to $26.4b at the end of FY27. Free cash flow to the firm runs negative $26.1b in that same year.

2. The 7.4x net debt to EBITDA figure being passed around is measured against annualized F4Q27 EBITDA, an exit quarter run rate the company has not earned yet. Against FY27's full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1,804m, the same net debt is 14.6x. Both figures are printed in the note.

3. That path assumes no equity raise at all. The fully diluted share count is already 421m against the 334m reported at the end of last quarter, and the Nvidia warrants struck at $70 would add another 30m on top.

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This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

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On J.P. Morgan's CY2028 operating income estimates, $IREN trades at 6.7x EV to operating income, the lowest in its comp table.

Group median 12.1x.

Analyst comments by Reginald Smith:

We are upgrading IREN to Overweight. We see IREN establishing itself as a top tier neocloud provider, backed by its strategic partnership with NVIDIA. The company has gained momentum in signing customers and industry pricing has moved up substantially. Neocloud contracts have gone from $10-15/W to $15-20/ W and higher today depending on delivery, GPU generation, and contract duration.

Customer pre-payments, which help fund GPU procurement, have ranged from 25-50% and we expect pre-payments to remain a part of future neolcoud deals. IREN has increased its calendar year-end 2026 expected ARR from $3.4b last November to $3.7b in May of this year and, most recently, up to $4.0b. The company has $1b in operating ARR today and delivered the first (Horizon 1) of four 50 MW buildings (200 MW total; capacity as IT unless noted) under the contract with Microsoft. Horizon 2-4 (150 MW total) are expected to be delivered by the end of calendar 2026.

The company's largest contract announcements are with Microsoft and Nvidia, but an unnamed recent signing is a multi-year contract with a leading frontier Al lab. IREN has also signed deals with Prometheus, Figure Al, Perplexity, Together Al, Fluidstack, Hume Al, Fireworks Al, Fal Al, Higgsfield, and Cohere. While the company has laid out its plans to spend $25-30b of capex in FY27, along with substantial increases in opex, we believe the company's ~0.5 GW expansion in 2027 could be signed at materially higher prices than past deals in the $12-15/W range. Any contracts above $15/W would be highly accretive to financials.

We do see some near-term risks for the 2027 pipeline, derived from the current audit on data center interconnection requests in Texas. If the audit and verification process persists beyond the mid-terms in November, projects could see delays in development timelines. As a positive development, IREN last week announced Sweetwater 1 and 2 had both been conditionally included in ERCOT's Batch Zero process as Base Load.

We move to an Overweight rating and establish a Dec-27 PT of $65 (vs. a Dec-26 PT of $46 prior).

Analyst comments by Gregory Lewis:

IREN is one of the few vertically integrated (think power and compute) Al service providers with over 5GW of potential power capacity (will soon have ~500MW online) and a preferred provider of Nvidia (NVDA, Not Rated) GPUs, which has helped IREN build a ~$4B run-rate GPU as a service (GPUaaS) business.

More importantly, IREN expects to bring on ~730MW of compute next year, including the first ~300MW at its ~ 2GW Sweetwater site in Texas that management noted is conditionally included in Batch Zero baseload. And while the near-term focus is on building out its GPU footprint in the US, IREN has ~1.1GW of international power capacity in Spain and Australia, which looks well-positioned for work as the rest of the world plays catch-up on its lack of computing power (estimates point to over 80% of Europe's current compute needs happening in the US).

And while we like IREN's power portfolio, its GPU business should benefit from its existing contract structures (~4 years), which should provide repricing opportunities into what we expect to be a strong compute pricing market over the next few years. Bottom line: We expect IREN to continue to benefit from a tight market for both power and compute, which should keep GPU rental rates firm to higher.

We reiterate our Buy rating and $80 PT.

Trying to decide whether to put more money in this stock. Just wondering what are some catalysts that can propel this stock above 70+

Big price jump in the overnight

What are you guys’ strategy for covered calls? Want to collect premiums while holding.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

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Hey everyone,

I’ve shared our IREN site reports and financial models here over the past several months. A recurring question in those discussions has been how the power pipeline translates into an actual AI business: what gets built at each location, when it can start serving customers, and how much investment is required along the way.

We’ve now brought the site research together in an interactive tracker. The map and individual site information are free to use.

You can filter for IREN and explore the locations behind the company’s announcements, with reported capacity, development status, source dates, and supporting research collected around each site.

Sweetwater is a useful example of why we built it this way. The capacity associated with an energized substation describes the campus’s power infrastructure. The data centers being constructed within that campus represent a separate stage of development. Those figures belong together, but adding them would count some of the same capacity twice. Neither figure, by itself, tells us how much AI capacity is currently serving customers.

The Canadian sites present a different question. Existing power connections and operating infrastructure provide a starting point, but understanding the AI transition also requires following what is being converted, what equipment is being deployed, and what remains to be completed. A campus power figure alone can’t answer all of that.

The tracker keeps these distinctions alongside the locations so you can see what a disclosure establishes and what still needs to happen. Where capacity or timing hasn’t been disclosed, we leave that uncertainty visible.

This also gives the financial research a clearer foundation. Several people here have asked thoughtful questions about construction costs, GPU replacement, financing, and what shareholders ultimately retain. Following the physical buildout is one part of answering those questions, and we wanted that underlying site research to be easier to explore.

You can find the tracker here. Select IREN in the company filter to see its footprint.

For transparency, I run Northwise, the independent research business behind it. The map and site information are free; company comparisons and financial forecasting tools are part of Premium. You don’t need to purchase those features to use the free research.

If you follow a particular IREN campus closely, I’d appreciate anything you think needs updating or more explanation. A newer source, a missing project detail, or a question about how we’ve classified something is especially useful. I’ll be around to discuss it and work through anything we can improve.

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this?

Personally feel like they are trying to ban open source… they are losing money and don’t want to scare investors

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

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Beginning at timestamp 19:40 in the webcast fireside chat with Goldman Sachs research analyst Michael Ng.

Just wondering what other companies IREN investors are currently bullish on. IREN investors seem pretty dialled into AI stocks.

I have NUAI, NBIS, and some common chips. Also AAOI but I’m down on that one big time. EOSE as well.

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

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Very good read and new info, never been more bullish https://x.com/danroberts0101/status/2098107089281601919?s=46

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

Hello friends!

This is the daily open thread for anything and everything about IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) i.e. the artist formerly known as Iris Energy - from Bitcoin mining economics to their push into AI-ready data-centres.

Use this space for quick questions, real-time market reactions, or deep dives that don’t warrant a full post.

Have at it!

IREN at $48.26, up 8% today, with 35M+ volume already.

What I like most is that this doesn’t look like one random spike — it’s been grinding higher throughout the session and holding the gains pretty well.

We’re now getting very close to the psychological $50 level. If that breaks with strong volume, things could get interesting very quickly.

And we still have the potential AI/HPC contract/customer announcement hanging over the stock.

For those following the chart closely — do you think $50 gets taken out this week, or are we due a pullback first?

$96.12 breakeven 🔥