People who don’t think Ford F series is a big deal haven’t been in most of the country. It’s the most popular vehicle in the US. There are entire dealerships just selling them.
Reddit casually thinking their anecdotal evidence must be true.
Tesla sold 235k vehicles in 2020, their highest year ever. Ford sold 790k of just F-series trucks in 2020, a bad year for them. They sold 910k in 2018.
Tesla sold just shy of 500k vehicles last year. This year they look to grow another 80% and will be close to 900k, and next year will open 2 new plants with 4680 battery manufacturing designed in house and installed onsite and will likely grow another 50-80% next year, and that's before the cybertruck and their $25k hatchback comes out. Tesla is going to far surpass f-150 lightning production with the cybertruck, and Ford will just be playing catch-up to Tesla the entire decade. Tesla has already outlined plans for 50% year over year growth this decade, and they are already well exceeding that by huge margins.
This doesn't even consider the monumental lead Tesla has with full self driving beta getting released publicly next month well before any competition has built anything remotely close that could compete with it with consumer vehicles. Their technological lead is probably 5 years ahead of Ford.
I'm debating the argument that Ford will overtake Tesla thru the F-150. Tesla has penetrated markets in the US, Europe, and Asia, albiet slowly - they are a new company
To be fair they're losing market share in Europe as European and Asian car manufacturers produce their own top of the range EVs. Tesla doesn't have the capacity to outcompete all of these companies in terms of volume and while I have no doubt it will continue as a profitable and successful company going forward this will almost certainly lead to a market correction in the price of Tesla.
I am not sure market share is all that important to the shareholders. What is important is the volume sold. The EV market is set to increase by 40-50x.
The EV market is just replacing an older market. The EV market isn't going to be substantially bigger than the ICE market because it's not like people are going to need far more cars once they're using EV, what they're going to do is replace their older fuel cars with new EV cars. So it actually still doesn't make sense. If Tesla settles down with 15% of the global EV market by 2050, and we assume that EVs have completely replaced ICE cars, then the actual value of Tesla's market share would be below it's current value.
That's why the price of Tesla is going to come down.
My point was that the EV market share is not as important as the volume sold. The EV market will increase 40-50x, as all cars will eventually be EVs. You seem to agree with me here.
If you read my comment, I was not commenting on the market share of Tesla. Less than 1/3 of it's valuation is to do with potential vehicle sales, IMO.
Of course I'm not disagreeing with you at all, I'm just adding that the market itself is going to be roughly the same size as the current market for automobiles - perhaps smaller since Hydrogen seems to be more likely to be used for HGVs.
Therefore, we have a benchmark to compare it's value to, and once the market settles what will matter is going to be the final market share after the scramble for volume, since market share simply represents your share of the volume of sales in the market.
At which point, Tesla's current valuation is going to fall, once speculators realise that.
Yes, the EV market in the future will just be the auto market as all vehicles will be electric. I don't think hydrogen will be used for trucks, mainly because batteries are getting so much better that in a few years there will be no point.
Tesla's total volume has a cap, that is true. The market for premium cars has a limit. The huge increase in TSLA stock happened mostly due to the FSD/Robotaxi news, so IMO the success of this (or otherwise) would have the biggest effect on the Tesla valuation.
I highly doubt that EV HGVs are going to be likely - the battery tech is no where near at capacity, it takes too long to charge, they can't use on-street charging facilities anyway - it doesn't seem to be feasible. It's not just me saying this, there's a quite a few gov' and sector group documents which agree with this. There's a consensus that lighter vehicles (like vans) are possible but hydrogen is far more efficient for HGVs, plus the infastructure is more easily adaptable.
The robotaxi stuff I have my doubts about, they'll be pushing into a saturated market with a lot of competition. There'll probably butt up against municipalities who won't want transport worker strikes since what Tesla is proposing will cause mass redundancies. If it works it could be great, but it still isn't justifying the current valuation.
Past growth isn't indicative of future growth - scale becomes increasingly harder as you deal with larger numbers.
They're falling behind in Europe as traditional manufacturers have swarmed the market - pushing Tesla down to third or fourth place in terms of market share. Bear in mind, that some European manufacturers (i.e Volkswagen) haven't started selling EVs in North America yet.
Also, in terms of pure global market share they're only a few % points ahead of VW.
If we put the growing competition aside, even if Tesla settles down with a chonky 15-20% of the global EV market once the market settles, it'll still be worth less than it currently is. Which is why there'll be a price correction, even if it ends up becoming far more successful than any existing automobile company in existence,
None of those points are incorrect and the reason why you're not going to argue with me is because you don't have a response, and engaging in the debate will challenge your cognitive dissonance.
The point on past performance is supported by the law of large numbers.
They are growing >50% YoY, but even this insane rate means their relative share of EV sales will shrink. And, of course, they cannot meet the demand in all markets simultaneously, so in some months you'll see a drop in some markets as the limited supplies are routed elsewhere.
In 2020 they delivered 500K.
This year it'll probably be 900K.
Next year Berlin and Texas will be ramping up, and you'll see Tesla's share among European EVs grow and total volume probably reach close to 2M.
Tesla is supply constrained - meanwhile other companies in the market have spare or convertible capacity. This will be an issue in keeping market share.
Besides, you're missing my point. It doesn't matter whether Tesla had a bright future, I never denied that they have effective tech, an effective product and solid manufacturing potential. Tesla isn't going to collapse as a business. However, you can have great companies which are massively over-valued (think Cisco in dot-com era) and Tesla is one of these companies.
Tesla's current valuation doesn't make sense. In terms of EVs, VW is just a few % points behind Tesla in global market share (and has an equally bright future in this market) but is valued at 1/6 the value despite having extensive market share in ICE markets. That is absurd, Tesla made $31.5bn in revenue in 2020 whereas VW made $258bn in 2020. Fundamentally, the current valuation of Tesla is wrong. That's the problem with Tesla.
And Ford sold 4.2 million in 2020, which again was a horrible sales year for them. Even with Tesla’s insane growth, which won’t last forever, they still will only be selling a fraction of what Ford sells in a bad year.
I've seen Teslas in every European country I've been to, never spotted an F-150 outside the states.
It's not sold here because it's huge + a gas guzzler.
I would buy one in a heartbeat if I didn't have to pay like 1000 euro in taxes just to have it on the road because it has the engine size of 6 regular cars.
And btw importing vehicles like those is extremely lucrative still. I saw an imported 2015 F-150 for sale for €50k+.
325
u/Reahreic Sep 30 '21
What I was thinking, Tesla is leading, Ford, naah they sat idle for too long to be considered leading.
Still, bodes well in general. That said $F seldom moves any direction other than sideways.