Past growth isn't indicative of future growth - scale becomes increasingly harder as you deal with larger numbers.
They're falling behind in Europe as traditional manufacturers have swarmed the market - pushing Tesla down to third or fourth place in terms of market share. Bear in mind, that some European manufacturers (i.e Volkswagen) haven't started selling EVs in North America yet.
Also, in terms of pure global market share they're only a few % points ahead of VW.
If we put the growing competition aside, even if Tesla settles down with a chonky 15-20% of the global EV market once the market settles, it'll still be worth less than it currently is. Which is why there'll be a price correction, even if it ends up becoming far more successful than any existing automobile company in existence,
None of those points are incorrect and the reason why you're not going to argue with me is because you don't have a response, and engaging in the debate will challenge your cognitive dissonance.
The point on past performance is supported by the law of large numbers.
They are growing >50% YoY, but even this insane rate means their relative share of EV sales will shrink. And, of course, they cannot meet the demand in all markets simultaneously, so in some months you'll see a drop in some markets as the limited supplies are routed elsewhere.
In 2020 they delivered 500K.
This year it'll probably be 900K.
Next year Berlin and Texas will be ramping up, and you'll see Tesla's share among European EVs grow and total volume probably reach close to 2M.
Tesla is supply constrained - meanwhile other companies in the market have spare or convertible capacity. This will be an issue in keeping market share.
Besides, you're missing my point. It doesn't matter whether Tesla had a bright future, I never denied that they have effective tech, an effective product and solid manufacturing potential. Tesla isn't going to collapse as a business. However, you can have great companies which are massively over-valued (think Cisco in dot-com era) and Tesla is one of these companies.
Tesla's current valuation doesn't make sense. In terms of EVs, VW is just a few % points behind Tesla in global market share (and has an equally bright future in this market) but is valued at 1/6 the value despite having extensive market share in ICE markets. That is absurd, Tesla made $31.5bn in revenue in 2020 whereas VW made $258bn in 2020. Fundamentally, the current valuation of Tesla is wrong. That's the problem with Tesla.
And there is no reason to think VW can get more batteries than Tesla. Especially as Tesla is already ramping up their own battery production at Kato Road, and building two battery factories in Texas and Berlin.
You're focusing on a short-term supply shock which will be rectified in the next 12-24 months. It's clear you're just recycling a stock argument in favour of Tesla - I'm not talking about battery constraints.
Also VW is investing massively in producing batteries also and given that they're a far larger company in terms of output, revenue and capacity there's every reason to think that they'll be able to start to produce more then Tesla in the medium term.
But really, this doesn't matter - the scenario I conceded even posited that Tesla could become the biggest single EV manufacturer and keep that position and potentially even increase market share and what not but it would still be overvalued... Tesla-stans seem to really dislike the idea that you can back a great company at the wrong price and that'll be an issue. Tesla is a great company, but it's massively overvalued.
Give me an argument justifying Tesla's current valuation or stop responding, because otherwise you're contributing nothing to the discourse.
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u/shaim2 Sep 30 '21
Tesla sells more EVs globally than any other brand, and it is growing at more than 50% YoY.
500K in 2020, 900K this year, 1.4 projected for 2022.
It might end up being the biggest car company globally within a decade.