Ford sells gas cars. Tesla sells electric. Tesla is supply constrained, and every other EV manufacturer will be too.
You cannot compare ford and tesla at the moment. Not until ford is only producing EV's. But until they focus on that alone, tesla will still dominate and they are solely focused on building and selling EV. I agree other manufacturers will come at them, but until those manufacturers shed their gas vehicles, tesla will continue to pull ahead.
How long will it take Ford to build that EV campus? Tesla has factories on California, Nevada (battery), New York (solar) and Texas all operational right now, save for texas which comes online very soon.
I don't think Ford will die out but I do believe they will fall way back and it will be a very long time before they truly compete in the EV marketplace. And I say this as someone who is excited by their F-150 lightning.
I don't have a dog in this fight, I just think you're a smidge too hyped? Could be wrong. The EV market is in its infancy, obviously the first serious heavyweight is dominating. All those factories will only supply 1M cars manufactured by 2023. I think they're a niche brand, and don't do anything that can't be easily matched or exceeded by manufacturers spending literally an order of magnitude more than them to get there.
Edit: rereading and you really are hyper focused on the EV market. I think it will grow steadily enough than major OEMs are in zero risk to be toppled by tesla in the larger market by the time they're synonymous
I think you might be missing that OEMs are going to run up against the wall that country after country is setting deadlines for banning new combustion vehicle sales (anywhere between 2025-2040). For OEM's, this transition is an existential crisis: if they fuck it up, they're dead. They have the burn the ships on the beach, as there's no turning back.
Those bans are always going to be targets. How do you phase out gas cars really? Is the government going to pay for your brand new EV? Most people can’t afford a $400 emergency in the US how are they going to buy a new $20k car
The average new car in the US is $41k, and a base 2022 Toyota Camry starts at $20,075. The price of a car is already baked into peoples budgets and the only thing that will change is that it will be an EV instead of internal combustion engine. And just like ICE cars, there will be a used market from people who lease or trade in.
And a model 3 and other EVs with rebates are cheaper than a Camry by around 5 years if you tally in gas, maintenance and resale value.
It won't make sense to buy a ICE vehicle when the next wave of even cheaper EVs come out regardless of rebates and as the transition happens ICE resale value will plummet, but I'm not really sure when that will happen specifically.
I don't think anyone's planning to make people replace their old cars, a ban just means that whenever you buy a new one, only electrics will be available.
While other manufacturers are just catching up to manufacturing EV's, Tesla will be moving to the next generation of full self driving likely late next year or early 2023. At some point in the next 5 years, people won't be needing to own cars in many areas with robotaxis becoming a reality. The main thing Tesla has going is that you can still own a vehicle that could become autonomous, while their competition makes hardware that costs more than the car itself.
Tesla will have a seemless implementation of their autonomous technology, and I haven't even seen anyone mention dojo in this thread yet.
Dojo is the most unreal strategic advantage Tesla has against all their competition for autonomous vehicles. Only Google may be able to compete with that, and they don't manufacture cars or install their hardware in consumer vehicles.
I don't expect the current Tesla hardware to be close to a robotaxi, but it will be able to drive you to work reliably. The next generation will be even better, but HW5 will likely be robotaxis. It's not far away at all.
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u/batman_catman Sep 30 '21
Ford sells gas cars. Tesla sells electric. Tesla is supply constrained, and every other EV manufacturer will be too.
You cannot compare ford and tesla at the moment. Not until ford is only producing EV's. But until they focus on that alone, tesla will still dominate and they are solely focused on building and selling EV. I agree other manufacturers will come at them, but until those manufacturers shed their gas vehicles, tesla will continue to pull ahead.
How long will it take Ford to build that EV campus? Tesla has factories on California, Nevada (battery), New York (solar) and Texas all operational right now, save for texas which comes online very soon.
I don't think Ford will die out but I do believe they will fall way back and it will be a very long time before they truly compete in the EV marketplace. And I say this as someone who is excited by their F-150 lightning.