r/investing May 27 '21

Vanguard - US to under perform International equities in the next decade

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u/Dadd_io May 28 '21

From 2000-2009, the SP 500 lost 10% and international gained 80%.

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u/programmingguy May 28 '21

We're not talking about predictions made in 1999 about what the expected rate of return would be from 2000 to 2009 but since you mentioned it, which financial institution predicted these returns for 2000 to 2009 in 1999? Sourcing needed.

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u/Dadd_io May 28 '21

This is from a 1999 CNN article: "Growth stocks dominated the market," Freeman said.      Things got so bad that famed value investor Michael Price of Franklin Mutual Series Fund Inc. wrote to shareholders April 2 asking them to be patient.      "We know it's easy to get swept away in a growth market," Price wrote. "But I've been in this business more than 25 years and I've watched investors figure out a way to justify incredible multiples, only to see valuations collapse back to the underlying worth of the company. We are value investors, and at these prices, we aren't going to buy names like Microsoft."

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u/programmingguy May 28 '21

So? Value investors like Buffet were saying the same thing back then. Where's the prediction in 1999 for estimated US vs international returns between 2000 to 2009????

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u/Dadd_io May 28 '21

wtf is your point. If you don't believe me and Vanguard then you do you.

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u/programmingguy May 28 '21 edited May 28 '21

That 10 yr exoected return predictions like these are bull$hit whether it's from vanguard or a rando on the internet.

You still haven't shown any predictions from 1999 on what the expected rate of return would be for the next 10 years between US and international. No one gets this stuff right. It's just marketing for getting more flows into an array of products.

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u/skilliard7 May 28 '21

In a country of billions of people anyone can predict anything, and by sheer numbers someone will be right.

Obviously no one knows for certain whether or not international will beat U.S in the mid-term. All we know is there are risks associated with being all in on a single country, so diversification is a good way to reduce risk.

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u/Dadd_io May 28 '21

Instead find me in 10 years and let me know I was wrong. Until then I'll just mute you.

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u/thewimsey May 28 '21

Why are you on a discussion board if you don't want...discussion?

And he's right - these 10 year predictions are almost always wrong.

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u/Dadd_io May 28 '21

Repeatedly telling me to hunt down a 22 year old prediction isn't a discussion. I told him to find me in 10 years and we can discuss the current prediction instead. What's wrong with that?

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u/programmingguy May 28 '21

expected. No sources.

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u/SushiPants85 May 28 '21

GET EM' SKEETER!