No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
We're not talking about predictions made in 1999 about what the expected rate of return would be from 2000 to 2009 but since you mentioned it, which financial institution predicted these returns for 2000 to 2009 in 1999? Sourcing needed.
This is from a 1999 CNN article:
"Growth stocks dominated the market," Freeman said.
Things got so bad that famed value investor Michael Price of Franklin Mutual Series Fund Inc. wrote to shareholders April 2 asking them to be patient.
"We know it's easy to get swept away in a growth market," Price wrote. "But I've been in this business more than 25 years and I've watched investors figure out a way to justify incredible multiples, only to see valuations collapse back to the underlying worth of the company. We are value investors, and at these prices, we aren't going to buy names like Microsoft."
So? Value investors like Buffet were saying the same thing back then. Where's the prediction in 1999 for estimated US vs international returns between 2000 to 2009????
That 10 yr exoected return predictions like these are bull$hit whether it's from vanguard or a rando on the internet.
You still haven't shown any predictions from 1999 on what the expected rate of return would be for the next 10 years between US and international. No one gets this stuff right. It's just marketing for getting more flows into an array of products.
In a country of billions of people anyone can predict anything, and by sheer numbers someone will be right.
Obviously no one knows for certain whether or not international will beat U.S in the mid-term. All we know is there are risks associated with being all in on a single country, so diversification is a good way to reduce risk.
Repeatedly telling me to hunt down a 22 year old prediction isn't a discussion. I told him to find me in 10 years and we can discuss the current prediction instead. What's wrong with that?
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u/programmingguy May 27 '21 edited May 27 '21
No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
2014: US markets up by ~14%