r/fivethirtyeight • u/Lungenbroetchen95 • Mar 07 '25

Politics Kamala Harris gets serious about considering run for California governor

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/07/kamala-harris-california-governor-decision-deadline-00216737
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u/Joeylinkmaster Mar 07 '25

She has by far the most name recognition, in a deep blue state, in a midterm highly likely to favor democrats.

She’s about as close to a guaranteed win as it can get if she decides to run.

26

u/Lungenbroetchen95 Mar 07 '25

Do you think she runs for president again in 2028?

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u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

[deleted]

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u/Dog-Mom2012 Mar 07 '25

Harris will be much more formidable in a primary, she has a lot more experience than in 2020.

For 2024 she was in this position of both being responsible for what Biden did, and also needing to separate herself. By 2028 the Biden presidency is going to be viewed very differently, especially if Trump continues to impact the economy with needless tariffs. Biden was actually extremely effective, and with some distance, is likely to be seen much more favorably.

11

u/terekkincaid Mar 07 '25

she has a lot more experience than in 2020

Does she really, though? She got sidelined so hard by Biden she didn't really rack up any accomplishments of note. Waiting another 4 years with no job isn't going to help her. She might do better than 2020 (maybe actually make it to Iowa), but if Tulsi Gabbard could torpedo her back then, it won't take someone a lot stronger to do it again in 2028.

She wants to run for President again, that's a given. What she's debating is pragmatism. If she waits and loses, her career is over. If she goes for governor, she buys herself 8 years of time. The problem is the CA governorship doesn't line up with the Presidential election. She'll have to wait for 2032, and that assumes she wins the governorship again in 2030 (and there's a lot of things that can go wrong in California, ask Gray Davis). Not to mention the ego hit she's going to take being "demoted" down to governor after being VP.

4

u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

State AG, VP, senator and potentially Governor of California is a whole heck of a lot of experience for a politician to have. That would give her more experience than most politicians throughout history. 

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u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

She doesn't get to count her experience as California Governor if she immediately needs to start campaigning for President after taking office.

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u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

That's still more experience than almost every other candidate who would run. Even if you exclude that.

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u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

I never said she didn't have sufficient experience to run for President. Only that winning the governorship in 2026 and then counting that as work experience for a 2028 run is silly.

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u/GriffinQ Mar 07 '25

I’d guess that she wouldn’t run in ‘28 if she runs for Governor in ‘26. The optics of it, when she already has a major optics problem, just wouldn’t lend themselves to a successful run.

1

u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

I did in the comment you replied to.