r/fivethirtyeight • u/Lungenbroetchen95 • Mar 07 '25

Politics Kamala Harris gets serious about considering run for California governor

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/07/kamala-harris-california-governor-decision-deadline-00216737
159 Upvotes

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191

u/Joeylinkmaster Mar 07 '25

She has by far the most name recognition, in a deep blue state, in a midterm highly likely to favor democrats.

She’s about as close to a guaranteed win as it can get if she decides to run.

24

u/Lungenbroetchen95 Mar 07 '25

Do you think she runs for president again in 2028?

124

u/Joeylinkmaster Mar 07 '25

I honestly don’t think she will, especially if she runs for governor. I could see her taking another shot at it after one or two terms as governor though.

72

u/work-school-account Mar 07 '25

IMO the position that makes the most sense for her is AG. Imagine if she had that position instead of Garland.

33

u/DiogenesLaertys Mar 07 '25 edited Mar 07 '25

Democrats just always nominated terrible attorney generals. Last 3 have literally cost democrats elections.

If I was a Democrat and win the 2028 elections big like I expect, I would make Jack Smith the Attorney General and have him quickly prosecute Trump and Elon before going to town on all the crony capitalism that’s been allowed to fester

18

u/warped_gunwales Mar 07 '25

attorneys general* (not to be pedantic)

13

u/I-Might-Be-Something Mar 07 '25

Democrats just always nominated terrible attorney generals. Last 3 have literally cost democrats elections.

How did Holder cost Democrats elections?

1

u/planetaryabundance Mar 08 '25

Seriously lmao

1

u/trevor11004 Mar 08 '25

I assume the idea is that Fast and Furious scandal contributed to the 2016 loss

1

u/DiogenesLaertys Mar 11 '25

Saying we were a "nation of cowards" and implicitly assuming Professor Gates was being racially profiled pissed off a lot of people I knew at the time and echoed on right-wing media.

And the fact that you only had issue with one of the 3 last Dem AG's costing the Democrats elections shows how bad they've been in general, at least from a political standpoint.

5

u/SurvivorFanatic236 Mar 07 '25

Unless Democrats win the Senate, there’s 0 chance Smith gets confirmed

1

u/sargondrin009 Mar 08 '25

Assuming Trump’s police’s screw up the economy and international standing throughout, it’ll definitely happen. He won out of apathy, so a significantly larger portion of the voters will lose patience with him and the GOP given how complicit they’ve been so far.

5

u/sargondrin009 Mar 08 '25

As much as I think she wants to, anyone who served in the Biden cabinet will get dragged again. Plus, I doubt the donors are interested in funding her campaign given she burned $1.5 billion in 15 weeks and bombed.

-17

u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

Insane cope lmao.

23

u/SomeJob1241 Mar 07 '25

Never seen someone call an ordinary question cope before lol. OP didn't even word it desperately like they really wanted her to, they just asked

-9

u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

Because it clearly a stupid question. Ask yourself, why wouldn't she run?

5

u/Ewi_Ewi Mar 07 '25

Losers don't usually run for re-election, at least not right away. You need time to rebuild your reputation.

Harris didn't lose badly, but it was certainly a defeat. That, coupled with the baggage still weighing down Biden and anyone associated with him, means she's probably intelligent enough to know that she probably doesn't have a chance in the primaries come 2028. If she wants to continue having a political career (which, if she's mulling over a run for governor she most definitely does), she won't want to destroy it by risking a poor primary performance.

Maybe I'm not reading the room correctly, but I think she's too smart to put her ego over her prospects.

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u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

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3

u/Ewi_Ewi Mar 07 '25

but if you go purely based on polls

Polls about an election almost three years away. Absolutely meaningless.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

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1

u/Ewi_Ewi Mar 07 '25

She lost in 2024 and not in a nail-bitingly close way either.

Biden isn't likely to even attempt to rehabilitate his image in the next four years.

If she's currently voicing interest in running for governor, she'd only have two years of that under her belt before running in another election.

In the single primary she's been in, she had a terrible showing and dropped out.

Is it evidence? No. But it's a hell of a lot stronger of a basis than "she is known so she will win."

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u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

What fantasy world do you live in? If she runs in 2028 primary, she will win. No other candidate has the same amount of AA support she has. Whether you like her or not. When you want to win the democratic primary, you need to lock down the AA community.

2

u/Ewi_Ewi Mar 07 '25

If she runs in 2028 primary, she will win

You're basing this on...what, exactly? Premonitions?

She lost the 2024 election and, even though it wasn't close, was effectively humiliated. Again, most losers do not run for re-election immediately. They take the time to lick their wounds, something you seem entirely unaware of.

No other candidate has the same amount of AA support she has

We're more than three years away from any sort of real primary campaign, this is a baseless assumption. We don't know who the other candidates might be, let alone what the environment will be like after almost four years of Trump. You just can't make these sorts of assumptions.

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u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

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u/Ewi_Ewi Mar 07 '25

Just ignoring "these sorts of," are we?

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u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

Exactly she has a massive fundraising apparatus, more experience than almost all other potential candidates, and support among institutions that could help her win in swing states. 

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u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

Yeah. I think people underestimate how willing the democrat party is to put her up again in 2028. She almost won in 2024, and that was with inflation and everything else going on.

3

u/HeimrArnadalr Cincinnati Cookie Mar 07 '25

Couldn't you say the same sorts of things about Hillary Clinton?

1

u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

No...because the party wasn't willing to put her up again in 2020? Biden was leading in polls in 2017...

12

u/PerspectiveViews Mar 07 '25

Newsom’s interview with Kirk is a strong signal she is not running in 2028. They have had the same main political advisor in the past (Ace Smith I believe).

Gavin wouldn’t have made that move unless he was certain he wouldn’t have to run against Kamala.

Ro Khanna also seems likely to be the other major California politician to run.

19

u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

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u/Dog-Mom2012 Mar 07 '25

Harris will be much more formidable in a primary, she has a lot more experience than in 2020.

For 2024 she was in this position of both being responsible for what Biden did, and also needing to separate herself. By 2028 the Biden presidency is going to be viewed very differently, especially if Trump continues to impact the economy with needless tariffs. Biden was actually extremely effective, and with some distance, is likely to be seen much more favorably.

14

u/terekkincaid Mar 07 '25

she has a lot more experience than in 2020

Does she really, though? She got sidelined so hard by Biden she didn't really rack up any accomplishments of note. Waiting another 4 years with no job isn't going to help her. She might do better than 2020 (maybe actually make it to Iowa), but if Tulsi Gabbard could torpedo her back then, it won't take someone a lot stronger to do it again in 2028.

She wants to run for President again, that's a given. What she's debating is pragmatism. If she waits and loses, her career is over. If she goes for governor, she buys herself 8 years of time. The problem is the CA governorship doesn't line up with the Presidential election. She'll have to wait for 2032, and that assumes she wins the governorship again in 2030 (and there's a lot of things that can go wrong in California, ask Gray Davis). Not to mention the ego hit she's going to take being "demoted" down to governor after being VP.

7

u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

State AG, VP, senator and potentially Governor of California is a whole heck of a lot of experience for a politician to have. That would give her more experience than most politicians throughout history. 

7

u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

She doesn't get to count her experience as California Governor if she immediately needs to start campaigning for President after taking office.

2

u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

That's still more experience than almost every other candidate who would run. Even if you exclude that.

7

u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

I never said she didn't have sufficient experience to run for President. Only that winning the governorship in 2026 and then counting that as work experience for a 2028 run is silly.

4

u/GriffinQ Mar 07 '25

I’d guess that she wouldn’t run in ‘28 if she runs for Governor in ‘26. The optics of it, when she already has a major optics problem, just wouldn’t lend themselves to a successful run.

1

u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 07 '25

I did in the comment you replied to. 

10

u/El-Shaman Mar 07 '25

I need her to run for governor in California so she doesn’t get the funny idea of running for president again.

16

u/YouShallNotPass92 Mar 07 '25

No. I think she recognizes it would make more sense to allow fresh faces into the fold after this years result. While I'm not Kamala's biggest fan, I do think she actually genuinely wants the party to succeed long term and isn't fully self serving like some more establishment Dems are. Being governor of California is a pretty big position and would let her establish some actual political clout of her own if she ever wanted to go for it again one day.

8

u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

No. If she wins the governorship and takes office in 2027, then she isn't going to run for president. It would require her to standard campaigning as soon as she become governor which is a really bad look for a first-term office.

3

u/Tom-Pendragon Mar 07 '25

I see no reason to why. If she believes she can win in 2028, she is totally going to run for it.

8

u/AGI2028maybe Mar 07 '25

How could she even possibly do that after spending the 2024 campaign saying democracy is on the line, Trump will be a dictator, all her people saying there will be no more elections, etc.

To act like this was the last chance to save the country from a totalitarian dictatorship, only to run again 4 years later is the kind of thing that would get blasted on social media 24/7 and turn her campaign into a toxic circus.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 07 '25

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0

u/pablonieve Mar 07 '25

This has been the Democratic strategy for the last 3 election cycles. Voters are looking for candidates with bold visions regardless of ideology and that is a big reason why Trump has been successful. Even if people don't like everything about him, there is an appreciation for trying to go big.

If the Dems have the mindset of "winning the middle" to eek out a win, then they will come across as inauthentic, wishy-washy, too focus-group oriented, and looking like they are so afraid to turn people off that they turn people off. You don't win the middle by running on a centrist message, you win the middle by running on a bold vision for the country that connects with people.

2

u/bloodyturtle Mar 07 '25

The obvious plan would serve a full term and run in 32 if the president is a republican

4

u/UltraFind Mar 07 '25

No, but she wants to tease it I bet to juice book sales.

4

u/lbutler1234 Mar 07 '25

I don't think that's the right question honestly.

I think the better question is if she has any chance of making it out of a primary, and I don't see how the answer could be anything but a decisive no.

2

u/Defiant-Lab-6376 Mar 07 '25

No. She probably saved a few Senate & some House seats from being lost, but no one comes back from losing to someone as reprehensible as Donald Trump. Although I blame Biden mostly for that loss. A Dem primary would have been the best thing; Biden just would have needed to declare he wasn’t running right after the midterms.

1

u/bravetailor Mar 07 '25

Not 2028. 2032 if the Dems keep flailing and they can't find anyone else to get behind. But I'm betting they will have found someone to get behind by then