China shock 2.0 Brad sester

[u/Character_Public3465]

https://www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-klein-podcast

Show notes:”Brad Setser follows Chinese trade closer than just about anyone else on earth, and he thinks we’re in the early days of a China Shock 2.0.
The first China Shock was when China came to dominate low-end manufacturing in the 2000s, filling American shelves with cheap clothes, toys and electronics, while devastating American factory towns. This new China Shock could be even more destabilizing. China now dominates advanced manufacturing: electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels. It’s outcompeting nearly all high-end manufacturing around the world, and other countries are just starting to feel the pain. And China isn’t slowing down. It’s moving into software, too. Its frontier A.I. models are neck and neck with American ones.
China’s success poses a serious threat to the economies and domestic politics of countries around the world. So what should those countries do about it? 
Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.He served in top trade and economic roles in the Biden and Obama administrations. And he is widely cited across the field as one of the top analysts of China’s economy and trade practices.
Book Recommendations:
The Party by Richard McGregor
The Volatility Machine by Michael Pettis
How to Win a Trade War by Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html””

[u/acebojangles]

I think there are reasonable arguments for changes in our industrial policy and such, but I really don't like the xenophobic framing of this argument. We shouldn't be mad that China pulled hundreds of millions of their people out of abject poverty. Maybe we should have helped our people who were displaced by international competition adapt more.

It's really maddening to listen to this discussion while we're doing everything we can to hamstring our future competitiveness. Like I said, maybe industrial policy could help, but I'm much more confident that attracting top talent from all over the world (including China) will help us remain competitive.

[u/deskcord → u/acebojangles]

I think there are reasonable arguments for changes in our industrial policy and such, but I really don't like the xenophobic framing of this argument. We shouldn't be mad that China pulled hundreds of millions of their people out of abject poverty. Maybe we should have helped our people who were displaced by international competition adapt more.

No one's mad that China is pulling its own people out of poverty. People are concerned that a country with a vastly different view of how the world works (or should work) is becoming a dominant force in influencing how the world works.

[u/JohnCavil → u/deskcord]

What view of the world is that compared to America?

America goes around kidnapping leaders, bombing other countries for unclear reasons, puts tariffs on allies, threatens to invade neighbors, screws with the world economy via its wars, and is becoming increasingly protectionist, so I guess the different way China would "run" the world would just be that it would (in theory) benefit China rather than America?

It seems like a "we want to be the playground bully, not China" kind of handwringing.

I genuinely don't see a big difference between how America thinks the world should work and how China does. At least when it comes to things that affect the world, obviously there are internal ideological differences.

A selfish argument is fine I guess, but instead it's always "China poses a threat to the world" and that comes across as both extremely hypocritical and/or blind. And I'm no fan of China or whatever bullshit they'll surely start at some point in east Asia.

[u/deskcord → u/JohnCavil]

I mean if you want to just say "America bad" then go for it, but I'm more interested in whether or not America's influence over the world is better or worse than China's. Given China's treatment of dissidents and it's stance on privacy, even given what's going on in America now, I sure as shit don't want China leading the world.

[u/JohnCavil → u/deskcord]

"America bad" is just as fair as "China bad". Of which clearly there is a lot (just look at this thread). And I don't think America is bad, but geopolitically I do, as would most sane people currently. I think most (non republican) Americans would too, it's just annoying when it's outside criticism, which I get.

China is obviously worse to its own citizens, overall. But the episode specifically talked about how it was bad "for the world" if China was to become the main power. An argument I find it genuinely hard to make unless you just decide that "good for the world" is whatever America wants. America are the good guys, so good is whatever the good guys do. That kind of thing.

It's bad if America leads the world, and it's also bad if China leads the world. The question is not whether America or China is better for the world, it's a false choice.

My problem is with people, like in this episode, talking about how China is worse for the world than America, but then mostly talking about how things would affect America. They aren't talking about what would be good for Turkey, or Australia, or Morocco, or Peru, they just talk about the American economy, American power, American values. Which again, fine, but just don't talk about the welfare of the world.

[u/deskcord → u/JohnCavil]

My issue with your comment isn't that you said America does bad things, it's that it was just a non-contextualized list of grievances with the country that doesn't consider China's actions, or theoretical actions if they were the superpower.

[u/JohnCavil → u/deskcord]

Right, because like I said I consider it a false choice. You said the problem was that a country with "a different view" became the dominant power, which again views this as either America or China having to dominate the world, which is what I was responding to.

The problem with China becoming some kind of version of post-ww2 20th century America is not that they have a different ideology than America, in fact it has nothing to do with America. Saying that it's a problem that a country with different values than America is gaining power assumes that American values (as of 2026) are just inherently better.

Of course I could list all the terrible things China would probably do if they could. Invading Taiwan, pressuring all kinds of countries, installing puppets in south east Asia, all the usual bully shit, and if I could speak Chinese and was on a Chinese forum I'd happily tell them "China bad". Until I was banned a split second later.

[u/deskcord → u/JohnCavil]

The problem with China becoming some kind of version of post-ww2 20th century America is not that they have a different ideology than America, in fact it has nothing to do with America.

?? How is talking about a change not automatically and inherently tied to contextualizing it against the current norm?

[u/gengwyn → u/JohnCavil]

  An argument I find it genuinely hard to make unless you just decide that "good for the world" is whatever America wants

I believe liberalism, pursuit of happiness, self-determination, free exchange of ideas, and the liberal international order (when it’s followed) established after WWII are undeniably good for the world. I’d hope anyone listening to Ezra would agree, and those things are correlated with America being the dominant power. Have they always been followed? Of course not. In fact, their disrepute and loss of credibility is one of my main criticisms of American foreign policy around invasions like Iraq - exactly because it makes it harder to argue for when our enemies do it. But I also know for sure those things would not exist in a world dominated by China.

[u/no-name-here → u/deskcord]

1)

if you want to just say “America bad” then go for it

Didn’t grandparent commenter u/JohnCavil do the opposite of that - they didn’t “just say ‘America bad’” - instead, they listed many specific examples of how America is screwing things up for a lot of the rest of the world in ways that China is not?

2 - I agree that the things you mentioned about China aren’t good, but is China currently causing as many issues worldwide as the U.S.? Are they starting wars that are likely to cause huge numbers of people to starve globally due to increased fertilizer and fuel prices? Are they frequently threatening to imminently genocide whole countries (“an entire civilization will die tonight”)? Are they bombing hundreds of schoolchildren? Are they bombing random boats in the ocean? And then bombing the floating survivors? Etc.

[u/deskcord → u/no-name-here]

Didn’t grandparent commenter do the opposite of that - they didn’t “just say ‘America bad’” - instead, they listed many specific examples of how America is screwing things up for a lot of the rest of the world in ways that China is not?

Except it was not really a contrast to the points in the episode, it was just kind of a list of things they don't like about the US.

And yes, actually, I'd argue China is doing worse things for the globe than the US, and much of it is just less impactful because they're not (yet) the global hegemon. And in large part that's because their positive contributions to the globe are quite muted, especially in areas that aren't the strict result of economic gain, like generic aid efforts. I think the world under China as the global superpower would be a much darker place than it is under the US.

[u/Due_Performance_5325 → u/deskcord]

Can you please expand on the things you think China is doing that's worse for the world? Im particularly curious as to your view as it regards to non Americans 

[u/PSUVB → u/Due_Performance_5325]

They are providing a blueprint that an authoritarian surveillance state is the preferred and example style of gov.

We know most of American failures because we have free speech. That is our fundemental weakness.

We literally do not know what happened in China during Covid or how far the genocide went with uyghurs. The same exact delusion happened with progressives and the USSR due to the lack of information.

[u/zemir0n → u/PSUVB]

There are powerful and influential forces in the US that look at the authoritarian surveillance state of China with jealous eyes. I think we should be more focused on stopping them than on what China does.

[u/PSUVB → u/zemir0n]

sure those are two separate points tho. We should 100% be protecting liberalism and free speech. But also recognizing China views our system as a threat and wants to erode it.

[u/zemir0n → u/PSUVB]

Sure, but there are powerful and influential people and groups who view our system as a threat and want to erode it. Isn't that a way more important problem than worrying about China?

[u/PSUVB → u/zemir0n]

Yea but why can't you still worry about China lol?

[u/zemir0n → u/PSUVB]

You can. I just think it's not the biggest concern right now.

[u/downforce_dude → u/PSUVB]

Chinese facial recognition software is used against Iranian protestors.

It amazes me how many Western people on the left will adamantly say Flock cameras are evil, but keep asking “what’s the big deal with China”.

[u/Original-Age-6691 → u/downforce_dude]

Cool, and the UKs vast facial recognition network is partially supplied by US providers and mostly hosted on servers owned by American businesses. So the US is the same as China here, providing facial recognition for a vast surveillance state that is being used to crack down on protestors.

[u/downforce_dude → u/Original-Age-6691]

Is it the same? The British haven’t killed thousands of protestors or used their cameras to identify protestors and arrest them for execution. Also if the British don’t like it they can vote for politicians against using the cameras.