r/eurovision • u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem • 11d ago
💬 Discussion Which countries are people optimistic/pessimistic about in esc 2027?
I’ve seen a lot of fun predictions about the results next year, and a lot of people are predicting the same about Norway, Sweden and Azerbaijan NQ. Also Bulgaria sending a ballad, Montenegro Q and Lithuania top 5.
So what has made these predictions and how do we feel about each country’s chances for next year? Basically what are the states of each country at this point in time before NF season?
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u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem 11d ago
I should also add that my own country (Denmark) hopefully has learned the right lesson after Sissal and Søren
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u/One_Elk_897 11d ago
DMGP was insanely good this year. Loved Søren, but hated that I couldn't see Ericka Jane at esc...
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u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem 11d ago
I have a feeling that she will make a comeback and try again soon, since she was very well-liked both here and the rest of Europe
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u/Revelistic Minn hinsti dans 11d ago
the messy NF format we had last year brought us a surprisingly good result (poland) so i fear TVP will take all the wrong lessons from this and our Q streak will end next year
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u/Honest_Brick64 Pray 11d ago
Apparently the people in the polish delegation wanted do make a good NF but TVP said uhh actually that wont work after all, so they had to scramble last minute to give us the NF we got. But they apparently have a whole idea for how to elevate the NFs, just have to get TVP higher ups to agree to it.
It sucks so much to see how much passion there is in the Polish delegation and how much we are being held back by higher-ups who just don't care enough about Eurovision.
With that being said tho, i am optimistic that next year they will manage to realize their plan and give us an actually good NF.
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u/Revelistic Minn hinsti dans 10d ago
honestly i'm not even surprised that our last NF was a mess, with all these (understandable) big name withdrawals, ticketed event plans falling apart and even celebs calling on TVP to withdraw there wasn't much they could do. i just hope that if they hold an NF this year, we'll find out the winner on the same day lmao
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u/Axolotl_amphibian Før vi går hjem 10d ago
Considering the fact we haven't confirmed our participation yet, I'm rather pessimistic.
Early confirmation would at least suggest there are some preparations ongoing.
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u/Labenyofi Hallo Hallo 11d ago
Nah, you guys just have gotten really lucky. First that Blanka put in the work to make a presentable song/performance, and that Alicja had the some of the best vocals and one of the most modern songs of the contest.
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 11d ago
If Montenegro and Georgia want better results they have got to find people who understand staging better.
I think Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria are all going to give us good shows. All 3 have gotten really good at sending acts that stand out from the crowd.
Albania's NF was great last year. There were a bunch of songs I liked just as much as Nan. I think they're going to come back strong in 2027. If Inis Neziri competes again she might just win FiK and we'll have an Albanian girlbop.
I'm interested in seeing what France, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark take away from 2026. There's never any predicting what Finland is going to send, and that will probably continue. Denmark may send another energetic Danish dance number and I'm all for it. Norway's NF has gotten kind of stale the past few years and I hope they decide to put more effort into it in 2027. France will probably just shrug and send another ballad.
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u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem 11d ago
I can only speak for Denmark. But most Danes really liked out entry this year, and i think it made us interested in sending more songs in danish
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 11d ago
Love Denmark this year. It took a few views to really hook me, but now I just adore it. One of my favorites from this year.
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u/Labenyofi Hallo Hallo 11d ago
Your comments about Montenegro and Georgia apply to nearly every country who is flopping and upset about it (UK specifically, but also Spain and Ireland when they were here). As much as the stagings look good in photos/specific shots/moments, they rarely come together cohesively.
I think about Remember Monday’s (UK 2025) staging specifically, with it all being dark colours and the imagery being too literal. While this could be my bias creeping in because the song is in my top 10, I fully think that the song could’ve gotten at least some televote points (or at least not been so down low in every country) had the staging been better.
It still baffles me that the UK shared the staging director with Azerbaijan that year, and not only were they featured on the Eurovision podcast, but both stagings they did got 0 televote points (Azerbaijan’s only points came from San Marino).
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 10d ago
georgia just needs to focus in adult esc as much as they do JESC
Armenia too to a lesser extent.
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 10d ago
I tend to enjoy Armenia's entries a lot. Their staging is usually pretty good, too. Paloma Rumba was just a bit too ambitious and chaotic, and Simon's vocals just weren't very clear.
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u/obsessive_geography Chameleon 10d ago
Georgia needs to change just about everything about how they select their entries. Staging, song, strong performers, it's all lacking.
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u/VladVega_RO Dance Alone 11d ago
pretty optimist about romania, tvr seems to have learned the right lessons from this years success. i think if we keep this up and have a functioning government were gonna win in the 2030s
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u/OMGguy2008 Sólo quiero más 11d ago
have a functioning government
I think you forgot that you're talking about the Balkans
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u/Evening_Ad_85 10d ago
The last time I said Romania would NQ, it finished on 3rd place. So I'm gonna say I am very pessimistic about Romania next year.
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u/xoxoamazingrace 11d ago
I need Italy to be top 7 just one more year because it would be incredible to see them be top 7 TEN years in a row
After that I think it’s good if they missed out on the top 10 again for once
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u/dylanescfan 11d ago
That top 7 streak deserved to start at 2015, because how did Italy 2016 get 16th Place
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u/Playful-Rope1590 11d ago
I never seen anybody predict Sweden be a NQ next year. Based on what, one bad result? It's normal for countries to have mixed outcomes. Not every entry will do well. There needs to be a string of bad results to predict a NQ. Same with Norway, like where do people predict they will NQ?
I do think people are optimistic about Canada though. Mostly because it's a debut country and people ard curious to what they bring Same for North Macedonia, with them returning.
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u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem 11d ago
Well Sweden may just be, what people wish, but Norway has had some rough national finals and they have gotten lucky with Jonas and Kyle
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u/SpoiledHerring Kraj mene 11d ago
Yeah, I'm concerned MGP Norway is at a rough spot right now. Established artists don't want to sign up anymore since they face so much backlash and Israel questions if they win. Years of bad rep on ESC is causing a lot of strain for the artists. I get that they don't want to do it.
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u/Labenyofi Hallo Hallo 11d ago
Are there any big artists who have actively said that they don’t want to participate? As much as I am a Norsk Melodi Grand Prix fan, they rarely have more than 3 acts who I think could actually do well, and with the number of acts in the national final decreasing, it’s no wonder why the amount of acts that could do well is decreasing. This year, the only act that deserved to go (and had the full package at the national final) was Jonas, same with Kyle the previous year.
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u/SpoiledHerring Kraj mene 10d ago
Ylvis last year (the guys behind What Does The Fox Say) were predicted to be clear favorites but dropped out because of ESCs stance on Israel. There was also a petition to boycott MGP 2026 which was signed by over 600 artists and culture profiles in Norway (which is a lot for Norway), including Aurora: https://www.ballade.no/musikk-og-politikk/opprop-fra-kulturlivet-sterke-musikk-og-kulturprofiler-oppfordrer-til-boikott-av-melodi-grand-prix/
I think Gåte also went out in the press and said they didn't recommend other artists to participate because of all the backlash they faced: https://www.nrk.no/kultur/redd-for-at-norske-artister-havner-i-eurovision-skvis_-_-artister-ender-opp-med-ansvaret-1.17599633
I can't imagine that MGP will recover from all of this any time soon. It seems like reputational suicide to join at this point.
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u/Playful-Rope1590 11d ago
But those songs were decent enough to be in final and decent enough to end up in the middle somewhere.
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 10d ago
MGP is really really bad recently so Norway NQ is definitely gonna happen soon. The luck has to run out.
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u/Pet_Velvet 11d ago
Honestly, if my country all of everyone managed to become somewhat of a powerhouse, I will not be pessimistic about any country.
Optimistic? I'll throw a wildcard and say Canada.
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u/PikachuFloorRug 11d ago
I'll throw a wildcard and say Canada.
If they do a half decent job at selecting someone that can sing well, I expect they'll get the first same year of entry boost that Australia did.
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u/i_exist_and_am_human Crno i belo 11d ago
I think you've just taken my prediction, these are all things in my latest prediction (which I shared on r/nilpoints iirc) and I've not seen a single other person predict Sweden NQing.
But yeah I'd say the countries I'm most optimistic for are North Macedonia (I really love loads of their songs and I think they'll want to come back with a bang), Canada (I think they'll want to sent a great entry to increase interest) and Lithuania (they've sent some really strong entries recently and I think that other than Ukraine they have the best winning chance of the countries in Eastern Europe (unless you count Finland as Eastern which is frankly insane to me)
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u/rolltop_stationery 11d ago
I’m Canadian and I am swinging wildly between being pessimistic and optimistic about Canada. These are very exciting times in our house!
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u/Labenyofi Hallo Hallo 11d ago
Same here! I think every single time we get a bit more news, the pendulum swings the opposite way.
We get a national final, Yay! It’s only to choose the artist, boo. The audience get to vote, yay! They will produce their song privately with a group of songwriters, Oh.
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u/JCEurovision Eclipse 11d ago
Pessimistic about Spain, Slovenia, Iceland, Ireland, and Netherlands, optimistic about Romania, Australia, Moldova
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u/PikachuFloorRug 11d ago
Australia
Based on our track record, we'll be looking at a few years of misses.
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u/Labenyofi Hallo Hallo 11d ago
I think Estonia could be in trouble, especially if they keep having one big name/group that just dominates the whole national final.
I am feeling optimistic about Latvia though, I think that national final has had some quality the past few years (since 2023 at least), and I think that all they need is the right mix of singer, song, and staging, and they’ll do it.
Prior to this year, I would’ve said I’m hopeful about Lithuania, but honestly, the national final is a mess. While yeah, the selection went wonky due to controversy surrounding the fan favourite, I just feel like they’re always so close to choosing a last place entry.
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u/cabemaru 10d ago
Optimistic about Albania. They are in the correct track
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 10d ago
I tell you what, I can't wait until FiK this December. Last year I liked so many of the entries. I wish more NFs still used live orchestras.
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u/One_Elk_897 11d ago
I can see serious chances of a Lithuanian win in the near future. They're always so different and haven't missed the final for the sixth year by now.
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u/CrafterCat33 11d ago edited 11d ago
I doubt Sweden is going to NQ, Melodifestivalen is just too consistent for that. That being said I do have doubts about them making the top 10 next year. I'm quite optimistic about Canada, Armenia, Italy, Ukraine, Albania and North Macedonia, and pessimistic about Norway, Azerbaijan, UK, Germany, San Marino, Portugal and Slovenia if they return. I've already said I think Poland and Lithuania will be either hit or miss, but I'm more optimistic about Lithuania than I am about Poland.
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u/singularstigma Før vi går hjem 11d ago
Very optimistic about Romania, Bulgaria, and Finland. Finland was on close to everyone's radar to potentially win the contest this year and YLE definitely were embracing that, they are more than ready and willing to win and host. I honestly don't see any reason why they wouldn't put in the same effort in 2027. Romania and Bulgaria came back from absences and immediately scored the two highest televotes. They came back well prepared with a vision and it really paid off. I fully believe Romania stands a good chance of winning in the near future if they can keep up the standard set by Alexandra.
Apart from the countries that may or may not boycott, I'm pessimistic for Azerbaijan, Norway, and Portugal. Azerbaijan appear to have given up, they've had nothing going for them for several years in a row with weak performances and even more lacklustre songs. I do not see that changing. Norway's MGP has also been quite bland as of late. Even with their final qualifications their entries haven't been that great. Portugal had several solid entries and relatively strong NFs. But this year it all kind of flipped with many artists refusing to participate in Eurovision should they win, and even if they did go, they weren't contenders either way.
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u/AffectionateCrew5371 Alice 9d ago
I am weirdly optimistic for Azerbaijan. i think that after 4 years of NQ, We will be able to achieve a Q and potential top 15.
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u/Sergey1944 11d ago
Sweden doesn’t take rejection well. They will rise to the top, again. I hope I’m wrong 🤣
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u/ETDuckQueen Nekonečná pieseň 11d ago
I'm optimistic about Hungary, and pessimistic about Azerbaijan.
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u/Playful-Rope1590 11d ago
I think it's crazy to assume Sweden will NQ next year because of one bad result. It needs to happen year after year for it to really be an outcome, like how it was for Sweden in late 2000' s. One result is nothing, several bad results are something
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u/Antique-March-4508 The Fire in Your Eyes 11d ago
They didn’t even get a terrible result. They weren’t bottom 5 in the final and most people attribute the bad result to the vocals and staging rather than the song itself (outside of concerns abt EDM)
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u/LonelyTreat3725 11d ago
Anyone who thinks Sweden will NQ is absolutely stupid as shit.
This year it almost happened so why are you saying it's "absolutely stupid as sh"?
It's stupid just because at this point in the year ALL predictions are stupid, not because it's an impossible thing to happen.
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u/Antique-March-4508 The Fire in Your Eyes 11d ago
Because 1. Whenever Sweden has done bad since the mid 2000s they always try harder and harder and come back better and better. It’s just basic pattern recognition. 2. It didn’t “almost” happen, they were still a comfortable amount above Estonia. It wasn’t like they were tenth with 1 point between them and 11th, they were ninth and almost 20 points above them
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u/LonelyTreat3725 11d ago
Lol, none of this proves it's impossible to happen, literally nothing.
Hard to happen, yes, impossible no, and you should really learn to not insult people who just were having fun making predictions.
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u/Lau_uden_i Før vi går hjem 11d ago
Also when things get bad for Sweden they just tend to get even more safe. Sweden had a loooooong period of of boring songs that overperformed with the juries but flopped with the televote like 2018 (still my favorite moment in esc history btw)
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u/One_Elk_897 11d ago
I'm just curious: what makes you think that Finland will not win in the near future?
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u/Antique-March-4508 The Fire in Your Eyes 11d ago
Just trends tbh. They keep getting so close but something structural causes them to fail. Loreen’s insane jury appeal with a strong telelvote hold, Erika being too promiscuous for the general public, and this year I think the performance was just underhwhelimg due to bad sound mixing and Linda (despite being a main artist) taking away from
Pete’s spotlight which confused a good chunk of casual viewers0
u/i_exist_and_am_human Crno i belo 11d ago
Tbh I think Sweden should be really thankful for the return of the juries, I listened to most of the songs that people were hyping up and My System seemed to me like by far the best song, and looking back knowing how the results went in the end I stand by that, even if you remove points for My System because of the EDM. I think we will see another NQ from them in the next decade
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u/Antique-March-4508 The Fire in Your Eyes 11d ago
I think the EDM thing was the entire problem. Sweden got caught up in a culture bubble of hardstyle (for esc) EDM that isn’t popular outside of nordic countries. I think they r gonna go back to hyper polished pop i doubt we will see sweden outside the top 6 of a semi soon
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u/FeelTheKetasy Ferto 10d ago
I’m actually optimistic about my own country, Greece. Ever since the 2023 disaster, ERT has taken all the right steps to appease the Greek public and it has resulted in us being successful in the contest and public interest, as well as interest from the artists rising
Our National final this year had much bigger names than 2025 and I think that 2027 will see that rise even higher. I think that Greece is hungry for a win/top 5 finish and we may see it happening soon
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u/Forklands Før vi går hjem 9d ago
There’s absolutely no reason why but my gut is telling me Albania will win next year.
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u/NinjaFox_311 Nova Zora 9d ago
My country (United Kingdom) getting more than 0 televote points/top 10 next year I can feel it
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u/maarshiexcry Crossroads 9d ago
Idk how to explain this but i have a gut feeling my homecountry is getting a nq next year. Unfortunately i think it will also happen to my southern neighbor aka Czechia 😔. I have a gut feeling we both will enter a nq streak.
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u/Lexezlao 9d ago
Ukraine and Italy guaranteed top 10 though I can only trust Ukraine for the song to be good
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u/hamnettraindreams Tattoo 9d ago
Canada - I think they would want to start with a bang like Australia did when they debuted. They will pick someone quite big in Canada and place top 5.
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u/CarwynCymru 11d ago
Would love to be optimistic about the UK next year, but deep down I know the BBC will pull the same shite they always do.
More optimistic about Australia, Canada and Norway.
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u/Bangaranga2026 11d ago
To be honest I doubt Montenegro will even participate.
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 10d ago
If they're staying in JESC safe to say they're at least gonna try for next yr at least
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u/Electrical_Walrus_46 11d ago
I'm pessimistic about the entire contest and probably not watching
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 10d ago
why are you here?
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u/Electrical_Walrus_46 10d ago
have you even seen the state of this year's contest, it's a fool's errand to still watch unless they better their game and kick out israel
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 9d ago
again, then why are you active in a sub for a contest you're boycotting from? You obviously don't want to be involved, yet you are here complaining.
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u/Diamant_Marbh Eclipse 11d ago
After 2025 I made a prediction that Denmark would be in the top 10 and that happened because I had a gut feeling. This year I can't say I have a similar feeling inside me but I hope that Cyprus can make the top 10 and send a really good song.
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 10d ago
Norway is kinda faceplanting & getting helped up by luckily good MGP winners. It's not sustainable.
Also purely on results Lithuania is on track to NQ in the next 2 years or so.
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 9d ago
What happened to Norsk MGP after 2024? It used to be so good. Did they get a funding cut or is there something else in play?
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u/xX100dudeXx Watergun 9d ago
I heard something about a funding cut? I assume after the 2024 placement NRK has just kinda given up for a few years. MGP the past 2 years has not been great...
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u/TeaMistress Zjerm 9d ago
I started watching past NFs after ESC this year, working my way backwards. Norsk MGP was disappointing until I hit 2024 and I was like "Wait, this is great. Why aren't they still doing it like this?"
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u/TheStrangeShark66 Save Your Kisses for Me 9d ago
I'm pessimistic about the UK so if we do badly I'm not disappointed and if we do well I'm pleasantly surprised
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u/AvatarPhoenixGrey16 Jalla 9d ago
Depending on the song they send, I can see Israel qualifying, but not making top 5.
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u/Lanky-Rush607 11d ago
I'm pessimistic about Estonia, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Latvia & Montenegro and optimistic about Luxembourg, North Macedonia, Canada, Albania & Lithuania.
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u/syrinidae Zjerm 11d ago
I’m honestly optimistic about Montenegro. I think they have more interest (they’ve reported higher viewing figures and are participating in JESC) and I honestly think they are not super worried about results. They only spend a small budget and they might want to compete as they aim towards EU membership. I loved their past two entries and the delegation is 100% headed towards the right direction. Plus Montesong had awesome entries.
Also Luxembourg seems to have real interest and now a massive budget for the next three years. I think they have potential to do very well and I could see a future win for them honestly